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Nov 2, 2017
Nov 2, 2017

What is implied probability?

What is implied probability?

How do you calculate implied probability?

Using implied probability in eSports betting

What is implied probability?

By understanding the implied probability of eSports odds, bettors are in a healthier position to make a profit. This article explains how to convert both Decimal and American eSports odds to their implied probability.

What is implied probability?

Implied probability is a vital concept for eSports bettors whether you are looking to bet on individual matches, futures, propositions, or live betting markets.

The implied probability is a conversion of odds into a percentage - whilst taking into account the bookmakers edge - and then eliminates the bookmakers edge to express the true odds of an event occurring.

In eSports betting, the bookmakers edge means the implied probability of an event will always add up to over 100%. The amount over 100% is the bookmakers’ margin. To understand how bookmakers work and to calculate their margin, watch the video below:

Why calculate implied probabilities?

Knowing how to convert betting odds into implied probabilities is vital for all bettors as it helps them assess the potential value on a particular eSports betting market. Once converted, if the implied probability is less than a bettor’s assessment, then it represents value.

For the purpose of this article we will use the odds for the Dota 2 match between Digital Chaos and Virtus.pro.

Implied probabiity odds example

TeamDecimal OddsAmerican OddsImplied Probability
Digital Chaos 4.810 +381 20.79%
Virtus.pro 1.192 -520 83.89%

Converting Decimal odds

The calculation for Decimal odds couldn’t be simpler. To calculate the implied probability for Digital Chaos to win follow these 2 stages:

Stage 1: 1 / 4.810

Stage 2: 0.207 x 100

Implied probability: 20.79%

Therefore the odds suggest Digital Chaos has a 20.79% chance of beating Virtus Pro.

Converting American odds

When converting American odds, we have to distinguish between plus and minus numbers. 

Calculation for American minus numbers

To calculate the implied probability of Virtus.pro at -520 use these three steps:

Stage 1: (- (-520) / ((- (-520)) + 100)

Stage 2: 520 / (520 + 100)

Stage 3: 0.839 x 100

Implied probability: 83.89%

Therefore the odds suggest Virtus.pro has an 83.89 % chance of winning.

Calculation for American plus numbers

To calculate the implied probability of Digital Chaos at +381 use these three steps:

Stage 1: 100 / (381 + 100)

Stage 2: 100 / 481

Stage 3: 0.207

Implied probability: 20.79%

Therefore the odds suggest Digital Chaos has a 20.79% chance of beating Virtus Pro, which as always, is the same as the decimal odds conversion.

Now you know how to how to convert odds to their implied probability you’re in a better position to find value on your eSports bets.

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About the author

Pinnacle

"Pinnacle" is a catch-all category for internally authored eSports betting articles drawing on the huge wealth of eSports knowledge within our content and trading teams.

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