PGL Arlington Major - Betting Preview

Who are the favourites to win their group?

Which teams could make it to the final?

Will the winner come from Group A or B?

Value in the first matches

PGL Arlington Major - Betting Preview

With the PGL Arlington Major starting this week, Dota 2 expert Ben "Noxville" Steenhuisen is taking a look at the Outright betting markets for the tournament and its first matches. Following up on his Power Ranking article, he has spotted some teams that have value in his eyes – instead of keeping this information to himself, he’s sharing his insights with us.

While there’s always a lot of uncertainty regarding how teams will perform with stand-ins, there are always some opportunities - especially with so much international travel happening. The true odds for a team in a match (or whole tournament) could shift a lot over the next few days if there are travel delays or visa issues for players.

Group Betting

Starting off in the Group Betting markets, I’d think OG to win Group A at 5.730* offers good value. PSG.LGD are the clear favourites; however, it’s likely that they will slip up on at least a few games across their eight best-of-two series. This could open the door to OG, or even Royal Never Give Up, priced at 8.270*, to perhaps upset them in the group standings.

Group B is a bit more open. But, based on recent form, both Tundra – priced at 3.890* - and Team Spirit – priced at 4.530* - could offer some value. The dark horses here are Aster - we’ve not seen them play against an international field they could make life difficult for some of the other teams.

Outright Markets

I think Tundra (4.570*) and OG (5.590*) are reasonable selections in the To Reach the Final (All In) market, along with PSG.LGD. I don’t think there’s any significant edge on any team to win the event at this stage; however, with more information coming out this week that could change.

I do think that Group B has a great chance in the Winner’s Group market at 2.500*. Despite the favourites being PSG.LGD followed by OG (both of whom are in Group A), the overall implied odds for Group A to win seem a bit too high in my opinion. I think the combined odds for Tundra and Team Spirit do a good job at offsetting it, especially with EG and Aster (all Group B) adding even more value.

Match Bets

I mostly look for appealing matches from a Winner 3-Way market perspective, rather than sifting through loads of individual markets on each match. Once I find a match for which I think the odds are appealing, I’ll then dig more into the individual side markets.

On the opening Match Day, I’d take Outsiders (1.689*) against Fnatic and Aster (1.645*) against Entity; both in the Winner 3-Way market.

On Friday, Royal Never Give Up vs. Fnatic has an appealing Winner 3-Way market price for RNG (1.606*). I’m also attracted to RNG’s Money Line odds for Map #1 and Map #2, where they are priced at 1.255*.

Also on Friday, Evil Geniuses (2.000*) vs. beastcoast (1.826*) is an enticing matchup - despite the fact the series between them at ESL Stockholm ended 1-1.

* Odds are subject to change

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About the author

Ben “Noxville” Steenhuisen

Ben is THE expert in DOTA stats, founding datdota and working as a software architect for an esports data provider. Noxville can often be found at the biggest events in the DOTA esports scene and continues to be fanatical about the game.

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