In his latest piece for Pinnacle, Ben “Noxville” Steenhuisen provides his betting analysis for the ESL One Stockholm Dota 2 Major 2022. Read on to find out more.
Unfortunately, there are only a few non-match markets available for this major – unlike for other big events such as The International. That said, some of these markets are very, very interesting! Let’s take a look…
ESL One Stockholm - Outright market
Western Europe (1.769*) and SEA (5.500*) could be an interesting pair of regions to target for the Region of Winner (All in) market if you believe Team Spirit will not be a well-oiled machine without Miroslaw “Mira” Kolpakov. It would provide good cover for all the favourites, bar Evil Geniuses. A riskier person might go all-in on Western Europe, hoping that one of Tundra, Team Liquid, OG, or Gaimin Gladiators will be on form on the big stage.
I think BOOM Esports are undervalued, both on the To Reach The Finals (5.120*) and To Win Outright (10.340*) markets. They have performed well both locally and internationally, yet are priced quite substantially below Tundra (3.030* to reach the finals, 6.110* to win outright) who they seemed well-matched against at the Galaxy Gamers event (Tundra won the upper bracket match 2-1, BOOM won the finals 3-2).
ESL One Stockholm - Team Specials
The Top Eastern European Team (All in) market presents another opportunity for those effectively looking to bet against Team Spirit if they’re missing “Misha”. Mind Games going far seems like a longshot so it’s really all about BB Team sneaking ahead of Team Spirit.
Despite Evil Geniuses being the better team, they are in what most people consider the tougher group (Group A). This could provide an unfortunate pairing in the playoffs - just the opportunity TSM could capitalise on.
Another well-balanced combination bet on BOOM (2.000*) and Fnatic (2.500*) could provide a break-even on Fnatic should they end up winning the Top SEA Team (All in) market and a small profit should BOOM win. I think these are by far the most likely outcomes for SEA teams. T1 aren’t bad, but unless something drastic happens, I don’t see them finishing ahead of BOOM and Fnatic.
Credit: ESL Dota 2 Youtube channel.
Matches to watch at ESL One Stockholm
Given the lack of cross-regional data, I would take a small punt on a team I’m bullish on. Therefore, I like the look of BOOM to beat BB Team 2-0, which is priced at 2.250*.
Evil Geniuses have always had a habit of starting slowly in tournaments and Tundra are one of my overall favourites, so I’ll take Tundra to beat EG 2-0, which is priced at 2.700*.
I think TSM vs. Gaimin Gladiators could entice me to go on the underdog, with TSM to win 2-0 priced at 5.250*. In terms of TSM vs. Wester European teams, they put up a reasonable fight against Tem Secret at Galaxer Gamers (losing 1-2), they lost to Nigma (0-1) and lost to Tundra (0-1). Tundra and Nigma were on fire at that event, so my feeling is that TSM are perhaps a bit undervalued. I actually think it’s a close matchup and a draw is most likely, but the odds are enticing me to have a punt on the underdogs.
*Odds are subject to change.