The PGL Astana 2025 playoffs have arrived, running May 16-18! Pinnacle is here to preview the eight playoff teams and their quarterfinal matches.
Aurora (+109*) vs. The MongolZ (-133*)
After acquiring all the former Eternal Fire players, Aurora failed to make a deep run in its first top-tier tournament, falling to Complexity and exiting PGL Bucharest in the quarterfinals. While they've secured wins against lower-ranked opponents, they continue to struggle against elite teams like Natus Vincere. Notably, Aurora maintains a perfect 100% win rate on Mirage over the last three months, though they haven't played many matches on this map. The team currently holds #8 in Valve's rankings and #5 on HLTV.
The MongolZ are now ranked #6 by Valve and #7 on HLTV, riding a four-match win streak that includes a dominant 2-0 victory over Natus Vincere in their most recent match. Their best-performing maps are Inferno (75.0% win rate) and Mirage (71.4% win rate). With significantly more top-tier tournament experience in recent months, The MongolZ are favored on the Money Line at –133* against Aurora.
Bet: Aurora vs. The MongolZ odds
Astralis (+235) vs. Natus Vincere (-298)
Astralis secured a 3-1 group stage result, with their only loss coming against Team Spirit. The team recently switched in-game leaders, replacing Casper "cadiaN" Møller with Rasmus "HooXi" Nielsen last month. This roster change appears to have brought new energy to the squad, marking their first return to top-tier playoffs since February. Currently ranked #16 in Valve's rankings and #15 on HLTV, Astralis now faces a crucial test of their revamped lineup against Natus Vincere (NAVI) - a matchup that will truly measure their progress against elite competition.
Natus Vincere (NAVI), while maintaining a strong #6 HLTV ranking, has seen its Valve ranking drop to #11. Once a dominant force in 2024, the team has struggled significantly in 2025, failing to qualify for the playoffs in their last three top-tier tournaments. However, they’ve now returned to playoff contention, delivering clean sweeps in all three of their group stage victories.
NAVI (-298) is a big favorite in this quaterfinal match, and given NAVI’s recent volatility and tendency toward extended series, it’s worth mentioning Total Maps Over 2.5 is priced at +113*.
Bet: Astralis vs. Natus Vincere odds
FURIA (-273*) vs. MIBR (+217*)
This Brazilian derby between legendary squads FURIA and MIBR promises fireworks. Currently ranked #23 by Valve and #19 on HLTV, FURIA enters with momentum after defeating MIBR 2-1 in their group stage encounter. While they narrowly dropped Anubis 13-11, FURIA showcased dominance on Train (13-4) and Inferno (13-8). The firepower disparity is clear - four FURIA players maintain 1.00+ ratings over the past three months compared to just one from MIBR. This superior form explains why FURIA is -273* on the Money Line.
MIBR sits just one spot behind in both the Valve (#24) and HLTV (#18) rankings, suggesting closer competition than the odds imply. Their underwhelming individual stats and recent results confirm underdog status, yet the slim rankings gap could have bettors looking at Total Maps Over 2.5 (+109*). These historic rivals frequently push matches to the limit, meaning while FURIA should prevail, expect MIBR to steal a map in true Brazilian CS fashion.
Bet: FURIA vs. MIBR odds
Ninjas in Pyjamas (+600*) vs. Team Spirit (-884*)
This quarterfinal features the most lopsided matchup of the tournament. Ninjas in Pyjamas (NiP), currently ranked #46 by Valve and #30 on HLTV - the lowest of all remaining teams - barely scraped through the group stage with a 3-2 record. Their dramatic last-match victory over G2 Esports saved them from elimination, marking their first top-tier playoff appearance in 2025. While this achievement deserves recognition, their reward is a daunting match against tournament favorites Team Spirit.
Team Spirit began 2025 as the world's #1 team but has since slipped to #4 in Valve's rankings and #3 on HLTV. Their recent struggles came primarily against Vitality, suffering semifinal defeats in their last two premier tournaments. With Vitality absent from PGL Astana, Spirit now stands as the highest-ranked remaining team. They dominated their group with a flawless 3-0 record, earning three straight clean sweeps that showcased their superiority over this tournament's field.
This matchup presents the ultimate contrast: the highest-ranked team against the lowest. While massive favorites on the Money Line given the stark difference in form and firepower between these squads, Spirit is also -190* to cover the -1.5 Handicap.
Bet: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs. Team Spirit
*Odds subject to change
