Feature Resource feed
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Mark Taylor Soccer Today
The Football Code book review: Using analytics in soccer The Football Code written by James Tippett is an insider’s view of the fusion of the probabilistic approach used by most of the successful bettors and syndicates within the newly burgeoning industry of soccer analytics. Continue reading to learn more about how important analytics is in modern soccer.
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Dan Weston Tennis This week
What impact does a tennis coach have on performance? The impact of a coach on a player’s performance has never previously been quantified in the public domain. Our tennis betting expert, Dan Weston, looks at the effects of coaches on various players in an attempt to work out whether certain coaches offer genuine value to a player. Read on to find out more.
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Celtic betting: Finding value in Celtic’s odds Scottish Premiership champions Celtic went the whole 2016-17 league season unbeaten, winning 89.47 per cent of their games and blitzing the competition. Understandably, their Money Line odds have become extremely short as a result. Despite their dominance, however, there is still plenty of value to be found in Celtic’s superiority. Read on to find out more about Celtic betting.
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Benjamin Cronin Betting Strategy Last week
What are the most common mistakes sports bettors make? While Betting Resources aims to educate bettors about everything from the basics of betting to predictive models, some bettors still fall into the common traps that inhibit success. This article provides a basic explanation of the common mistakes bettors make and how to avoid them. Read on to learn more.
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Mark Taylor Soccer Jul 28, 2017
How important are individual players in soccer? Although soccer is a team sport, sharp bettors will be aware that assigning specific values to individual players will help inform betting decisions. One popular way to do this is by examining individual players’ expected goal contribution and chance creation, as well as their actual output. How important can one player be to their side’s attacking process? Read on to find out.
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Mirio Mella Educational Jun 30, 2017
How R is driving sports betting innovation The idea that bookmakers function by simply balancing bets from recreational punters and taking a cut is a common misconception. The truth is far more interesting, with data science at the heart of modern sports betting innovation, epitomised by how Pinnacle is using R and advanced Machine Learning techniques to stay ahead of the pack.
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Dan Weston Tennis Jun 27, 2017
What to expect from Petra Kvitova after her return from injury After less than six months away from the WTA Tour, Petra Kvitova made her return in the first round of the French Open this year. Ahead of Wimbledon 2017 our tennis expert, Dan Weston, looks at the impact she can have at the grass court Grand Slam and subsequently during the hard court season that follows. Read on to find out more.
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George Taylor Tennis Jun 26, 2017
Kei Nishikori: Japan’s next sporting sensation? Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer have dominated the Men’s Tennis ATP Rankings for a number of years. However, the talented Kei Nishikori has shown that he has the potential to end the dominant reign of the big four in men’s tennis. Could Nishikori end Japan’s wait for a Grand Slam winner? Read on to find out.
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Benjamin Cronin Soccer May 31, 2017
The finale: Premier League predictions - Pinnacle vs. Mark Lawrenson Over the past nine months, Chelsea saw off all their Premier League rivals to lift the title, Arsenal won the FA Cup and Manchester United pulled off an unlikely double. One thing that hasn’t been decided is the winner of the Bookmaker vs. Soccer Pundit challenge, until now. Who is better in terms of predicting results, Pinnacle or Mark Lawrenson? Read on to find out.
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Joseph Buchdahl Betting Psychology May 26, 2017
Why do we gamble? Irrationality and overconfidence For disciples of rational choice theory the business of gambling presents a headache. Supposedly individuals always make rational decisions by trying to maximise their advantage whilst minimising their losses. You wouldn’t pay €1,000 for a holiday if you thought it was worth only €500. If a bet has an expected value of zero or lower, why do gamblers strike them? Read on to find out.
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Benjamin Cronin Educational May 23, 2017
The Smart Money: Lessons from the world’s sharpest bettor The Smart Money documents Michael Konik’s journey from your average sports fan to someone who is disappointed when he can only bet $50,000 on a single game. After being shown the ropes by Rick “Big Daddy” Mathews and the Brain Trust syndicate, Konik finds out that picking the right team isn’t the hardest part of professional betting, it’s finding somewhere that will accept your bet.
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Benjamin Cronin Soccer May 16, 2017
Part 7: Premier League predictions - Pinnacle vs. Mark Lawrenson The Premier League season is drawing to a close. The title has been decided, the relegated sides have been confirmed and the top four is all but assured. One thing that hasn’t been decided, however, is the Bookmaker vs. Soccer Pundit challenge. Who is more efficient in terms of predicting results, Pinnacle or BBC’s “expert” Mark Lawrenson? Read on to find out.
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Benjamin Cronin Basketball May 12, 2017
NBA Discussion Day: Learn from expert basketball bettors In preparation for the start of the NBA Finals on June 1, we hosted a NBA Discussion Day on Twitter where some expert basketball bettors passed on their advice to our followers. Read on to find out what you should consider when betting on the NBA.
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Joseph Buchdahl Soccer May 3, 2017
What can Arsène Wenger teach bettors about sunk costs? The big debate over Arsène Wenger'd future has divided Arsenal fans into two camps. Is it time for one of the greatest soccer coaches to step down? In this article, we examine what behavioural science has to say about the difficulties of decision making and what bettors can learn from Wenger’s dilemma. Read on to find out.
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Pinnacle Educational Apr 28, 2017
Is R the betting analysis tool of the future? You might have heard of R, the increasingly popular statistical programming language widely used for data analysis, but how can it help you improve your betting? For that purpose, we interviewed our Sports Manager, Jonathan Belke. Read on to find out his own struggles while learning R and what his tips for bettors new to this analysis tool are.
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Benjamin Cronin Betting Strategy Apr 27, 2017
How to bet on newly promoted teams It might be obvious to say that soccer teams struggle with the jump in quality after winning promotion. However, being able to quantify those struggles could be beneficial to bettors. Analysing newly promoted teams’ results against “better quality” teams in a higher division could highlight odds discrepancies and provide a valuable betting opportunity. Read on to find out more.
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Pinnacle Betting Psychology Jun 12, 2017
Betting psychology: A crash course for aspiring professional bettors If you are trying to learn how to make money in sports betting, you will sooner or later come across the term betting psychology. Can your mindset directly affect your profits? What are the most common mistakes and how can you avoid them? Are you in control of your actions or are they in control of you? Read on for a crash course in betting psychology.
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Dan Weston Tennis Apr 26, 2017
Is Sharapova a value bet after her ban? After a year’s absence from the WTA Tour, Maria Sharapova returns in Stuttgart on April 26. What is the impact of her rejoining the tour? How well can she do after a year away? Dan Weston looks at the current WTA statistics to determine whether she is still a value bet. Read on to find out.
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Marco Blume Educational May 23, 2017
Arbitrage vs. Value Betting - Exposing misconceptions As Pinnacle’s Director of Trading my job is to manage risk, and the same should be true for every bettor out there trying to make money. I love reading about how bettors approach risk and bankroll management and was inspired to make my first contribution to Betting Resources to expose some misconceptions around one of most widely debated and often misconceived topics - Arbitrage vs. Value Betting.
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Benjamin Cronin Betting Strategy May 31, 2017
How to be a professional bettor Discussion Day: The highlights Although some bettors bet for fun and entertainment purposes, there are plenty out there that want to make a living from betting. During our most recent Discussion Day on Twitter, we offered our help and the expertise of various betting experts to those who wanted to know what is required to be a professional bettor. Read on to learn more about the advice that was shared.
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Andrew Beasley Soccer Apr 5, 2017
How to calculate expected goals in soccer To predict the score of a soccer match successfully, bettors need two things; information and a model. How many goals are scored on average per match? How often does a shot convert into a goal? And most importantly, how can bettors use past data to predict the number of goals in order to place winning bets? This article explains how to use an expected goals model to predict the score in a soccer match. Read on to find out how.
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Pinnacle Educational May 16, 2017
4 betting lessons from Sir Alex Ferguson With the release of his latest book, Leading, Sir Alex Ferguson took a step back from soccer memoirs to reveal the secrets of his winning ways in the 38 years he spent managing Manchester United and Aberdeen. What are his secrets of success? What can bettors learn from it? Read on to find out.
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Pinnacle Basketball Apr 26, 2017
The best NBA Twitter accounts to follow for basketball betting The NBA consists of 30 teams. In order to gather information that could improve your betting decisions, you could follow every team’s official Twitter account as well as their main beat writers. This is a daunting task and before you know it you, will be flooded with an insane number of tweets. To help you out, here's a list of the top ten NBA Twitter accounts that will empower your basketball betting. -
Joseph Buchdahl Betting Strategy Apr 5, 2017
All you need to know to beat the bookies The principle of value betting is not to bet when you think you will win, but when the probability of you winning is greater than that implied by the bookmaker’s odds. To be a profitable bettor means that your judgement is better than your bookmaker’s. In this article, Joseph Buchdahl explains how sportsbooks manage the odds and shows how beating the bookies works. Read on to find out.
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Mirio Mella Betting Strategy Mar 2, 2017
Exploring Duckworth-Lewis: What makes a good model? Successful bettors and bookmakers don’t rely on hunches, their gut or putting a finger in the air to predict future outcomes. More often than not they build models. But what makes a good model? Well the answer is often ‘having a good question’. Cricket was plagued by a difficult question for 30 years until the Duckworth-Lewis method provided an elegant solution which provides a great case study for would be model-builders. -
Chris McCarthy Boxing Feb 27, 2017
Boxing betting strategy: The importance of pre-fight preparations Danny Wilson has previously worked with elite boxers as a strength and conditioning coach. This job has given him an inside look at how boxers prepare for a fight - something bookmakers don’t have access to. His expert knowledge can be used as part of a boxing betting strategy to get an edge over the bookmaker. Read this interview to find out how. -
Pinnacle More Sports Feb 27, 2017
Interview with Michael Prim - Pinnacle’s eSports Trader With the demand for eSports betting sky-rocketing, we got our Live eSports Trader, Michael Prim, to give us an interview. Why is live betting so popular with eSports bettors? What game state changes are the most critical? When do bettors overreact to a situation? Read on to find out. -
Joe Peta Betting Strategy Jun 10, 2017
The Kelly Criterion - A stock trader and betting expert’s perspective Wisdom of the crowd insight - based on the Betting Resources list of most popular articles - underlines the perceived importance of staking methods. My experience echoes this, so when invited to contribute a betting strategy article, Kelly Criterion seemed both a natural choice and the perfect way to underline the relevance of what I learned on Wall Street and successfully applied to sports betting.
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Mirio Mella Educational Jan 30, 2017
An interview with world famous sports bettor Lewis Deyong Listening to our customers, one thing is crystal clear; you want to know how to improve your betting and you want to hear it from real experts. What better way to deliver on that request than by interviewing a truly expert gambler who has spent six decades successfully setting, and beating, the odds.
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Mirio Mella Betting Strategy Apr 27, 2017
The search for truth: Signal vs. Noise Opinion is free, but information is very expensive, which is a harsh reality for bettors who derive an edge from reacting to news before the odds do. In an ever-more digitally connected world the volume of free opinion is rising exponentially, bringing us to the point of a ‘post-truth’ era. So how do you separate the signal from the noise, and what does the recent US Election tell us about that?
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Joseph Buchdahl Betting Strategy Feb 2, 2017
The law of small numbers in sports betting The law of small numbers is a cognitive bias where people show a tendency to believe that a relatively small number of observations will closely reflect the general population. Read on to test your logical powers with the hospital quiz and find out how graphs can be misleading and what you can do to avoid losses when using stats to place your bets.
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Pinnacle Educational Oct 28, 2016
Interview with a professional tennis bettor From slot machines and poker to stats analysis and tennis betting, the dream came true for Dan Weston, who turned his affinity for gambling into a means of making a living. Read our interview with Dan below, where he reveals how he profits from tennis betting on a daily basis.
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Joseph Buchdahl Betting Strategy Jul 5, 2017
How good are betting tipsters? Betting tipsters often promise high strike rates that will win you a fortune. Although the promise of big profits is alluring, how can you tell the difference between a profitable tipster and a salesman. Read on to find out the two factors you need to evaluate before you decide which expert picks to trust.
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Joseph Buchdahl Educational Jul 20, 2016
The maths behind Pinnacle’s “winners welcome” policy Reports of bettors having their accounts closed or restricted to pennies by mainstream bookmakers is nothing new among profitable bettors. With Pinnacle claiming that winners are welcome, betting analyst, Joseph Buchdahl, puts our odds to the test to determine why Pinnacle not only accept winners, but also offers top-notch education to help bettors improve their performance. Read on to find out.
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Joseph Buchdahl Betting Strategy Jun 24, 2016
The Paradox of Skill From finances to sports, betting is a mixture of skill and luck. The key to long-term success is not to pick winners, but to find value and make consistent profits. Betting tipsters often promise high strike rates, but can they perform consistently in the long run? The answer lies in what is called the Paradox of Skill.
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Joseph Buchdahl Betting Strategy Apr 28, 2016
Using the Monte Carlo method to analyse your betting history Following the discussion of Randomness in sporting outcomes, Joseph Buchdahl is taking the analysis of the factor of luck to the next level. Find out how randomness can influence your betting performance and how you can measure it by using Excel.
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Joseph Buchdahl Betting Strategy Mar 22, 2016
Randomness in sports betting Betting on sport is, by nature, a very uncertain business, but can bettors keep a tight grip on the randomness of it all? Joseph Buchdahl looks at the best way to tackle the inevitable randomness in sports betting.
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Joseph Buchdahl Betting Strategy Feb 22, 2016
What is the Martingale betting system? Some bettors are big believers in money management strategies but are they really as reliable as people make out? Joseph Buchdahl investigated the Martingale betting system to see whether the returns are really worth the risks.
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Pinnacle Betting Strategy May 4, 2016
Applying Elo ratings to soccer betting You might have heard of Elo ratings but what is it exactly and how can they be applied to betting to increase your winnings? A must read for anybody planning to bet on the second leg matches of the UEFA Champions League semi-final phase.
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Joseph Buchdahl Betting Strategy Jan 14, 2016
Regression to the mean in sports betting With forecasting systems mainly based on past performances, understanding regression to the mean is crucial for sports bettors. The 2015-16 EPL season has been no short of surprises so far, raising the question: Are extreme outcomes sustainable? Here’s what statistics have to say about it.
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Pinnacle Betting Strategy Jun 3, 2016
Tennis handicap betting explained If you are interested in tennis betting, it is important to know how to understand handicaps, where the difference in perceived abilities is balanced by applying a game handicap. These markets are a great alternative to the staple of tennis betting, the match winner market.
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Dominic Cortis Betting Strategy Nov 30, 2015
What is the Labouchere betting system? To be profitable in sports betting, staking strategy is as important as finding value odds. With many progressive betting systems, such as the Labouchere betting system, promising almost infinite wealth, are they a good idea to follow? Here’s the academic answer to the question.
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Dominic Cortis Betting Strategy Jan 6, 2015
An example of how to build a betting model Following our popular article on how to build a betting model, here is a practical example of creating, applying and testing a betting model that predicts wins, losses and draws in the Premier League. Read on to find out.
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The Road to 1 Million eSports bets Our Head of Sportsbook is an avid eSports gamer. Back in early 2010, convinced of the huge betting potential it presented, he decided to post Pinnacle’s first ever eSports market. Find out how we got from that first bet to be on the verge of 1 million eSports bets.
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Pinnacle Betting Strategy Aug 5, 2014
Improve your betting with these five books Bettors should always look for new ways to improve – one way is to read books. After a huge response to our original betting books article, some of our Twitter followers suggested worthy additions. Find out what they recommended.
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Pinnacle Betting Strategy Oct 4, 2016
Betting API - Why use Pinnacle's? Pinnacle is renowned for offering great value and unbeatable odds. Additionally, there is another equally important, but lesser known free service we provide that offers bettors a potentially huge advantage – a betting API. Read on to find out the benefits of using a betting API and how to do it.
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Mirio Mella Betting Strategy Oct 24, 2014
Three must-read books for bettors Want to know the best reads for betting? Our Head of Sportsbook was asked to recommend the best betting related books he had read. Find out what his choice was, and why it is so surprising. -
Dominic Cortis Betting Strategy Sep 30, 2014
Using Monte Carlo modelling for betting What models do you use to guide your bets? If you haven’t heard of Monte Carlo simulation you could be missing out. Read on to find out all about it.
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Mark Taylor Football Aug 23, 2016
NFL points totals and the effect of the weather The impact of weather on scoring is often neglected by NFL bettors when betting on the points totals in a game. This article examines one of the more uncommon football betting tips, how wind speed causes points scoring to subside in the NFL. Read on the find out how you can create an opportunity and gain a potential NFL betting edge.
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Which soccer betting Twitter accounts should you follow? All sports bettors should gather as much information as possible on the market they intend to bet on, ensuring their bets are informed. Below, Pinnacle recommends which Twitter accounts soccer bettors should be following ahead of the new season.
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Mirio Mella Betting Psychology Jun 15, 2017
The dangers of weighting probability from intuition Do you know why betting on your favourite team is a bad idea? It’s for the same reason lotteries are so popular and people find judging the likelihood of rare events, like a hole-in-one, so difficult. It comes down to skewed perception resulting from what are known as the Possibility and Certainty Effects. -
Mirio Mella Betting Psychology Jul 11, 2013
The Green Lumber Fallacy One of the most common mistakes made by aspiring bettors is to confuse specialist sports' knowledge with expertise in sports betting. This error manifests in the proliferation of ex-professional sports stars that become self-proclaimed betting experts, and is neatly described by what Nicholas Nassim Taleb termed "Green Lumber Fallacy".
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Mirio Mella Betting Psychology Aug 16, 2013
Wisdom of the Crowds applied to betting If you have a difficult conundrum, it’s reasonable to assume that the more people you survey, the better your solution will be. This theory is known as the ‘wisdom of the crowds’, and is an effective way of making decisions under uncertainty, like estimating the probability or outcome of a sports betting prediction.
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How do substitutions impact live soccer odds? It’s no secret that soccer stars like Lionel Messi or Cristiano Ronaldo can change games whether coming on or off the pitch – that impact is built into the market. But what about the substitutions of players further down the food chain? This article investigates how substitutions impact live soccer odds.
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Pinnacle vs. Mark Lawrenson Money talks, but does it always say the right thing? We compared the predictions of the BBC's soccer expert Mark Lawrenson with Pinnacle handicaps to see if the ex-Liverpool man is a better oracle than the market. Continue reading to find out the results.
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Benjamin Cronin Football Two weeks ago
Yards per play betting in the NFL Bettors should learn to evolve their football betting strategy to get ahead of bookmakers in the NFL. One way of doing this is to pay close attention to schedule changes and to use yards per play rankings to exploit discrepancies in handicap markets. This article explains how to do just that.
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Pinnacle Betting Strategy Feb 15, 2013
What is the Fibonacci betting system? Progressive betting systems aren’t the most glamorous form of soccer betting, but some people claim they can make big profits. We investigated the Fibonacci betting system to see whether the returns were worth the risks.
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Mirio Mella Betting Strategy Mar 24, 2014
Bayesian analysis and sports betting Bettors often seek out new tools to help refine the process of assigning accurate probabilities to the chances of uncertain events happening. This article discusses how Bayesian Analysis – the theory of an 18th Century English Presbyterian Minister named Thomas Bayes – can help sports bettors gauge the outcome of an event.
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Pinnacle Betting Strategy Oct 4, 2016
Staking: One method to improve your betting There is a strong case to suggest that the amount you bet is actually more important than what you bet on. We reviewed five popular staking methods. Continue reading to discover which is best.
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Mirio Mella Baseball May 9, 2017
The first half baseball betting strategy The great advantage of developing a baseball betting strategy that uses the first five innings, otherwise known as the first half, is that your fate is in the hands of the two starting pitchers. This means you can safely ignore other, more random factors, such as the benches and both bullpens in your baseball betting.
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Mirio Mella Betting Strategy Nov 15, 2012
How to get an edge in betting The fundamental challenge for serious bettors is to gain an advantage over whoever is laying their bet, whether that is a bookmaker, exchange or casino. In betting parlance this is called ‘getting an edge’ and if you want to be a profitable bettor, you need to understand what this means. This article explains how to get an edge in betting.
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Mirio Mella Betting Strategy Apr 9, 2012
1X2 to Handicap odds conversion A good way to discover where the value of a bet lies is by calculating a 1×2 to handicap conversion. Most bookmakers use a ’1×2 to handicap’ conversion chart, which will give you a better insight into the particular market, this article shows you how to calculate 1X2 odds to Handicap odds.
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Pinnacle Betting Strategy Jun 6, 2016
What distinguishes winning from losing bettors? One way to distinguish winning from losing players is to look at the odds a player received when they made their bet and compare it with the Pinnacle closing line. Consistently beating the closing odds at Pinnacle can be a strong indicator of long-term betting profits.
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Mirio Mella Betting Strategy Jul 12, 2016
Market movement in betting Understanding the significance of market movement is a vital betting strategy for bettors who hope to predict the winner of a sporting event. By taking notice of the odds movement at Pinnacle, bettors are on the right track to becoming a successful bettor.