Educational Resource feed
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Mark Taylor Soccer Today
The Football Code book review: Using analytics in soccer The Football Code written by James Tippett is an insider’s view of the fusion of the probabilistic approach used by most of the successful bettors and syndicates within the newly burgeoning industry of soccer analytics. Continue reading to learn more about how important analytics is in modern soccer.
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Benjamin Cronin Soccer Just now
An analysis of different expected goals models Previously confined to a small sports data community, the expected goals metric now features among other common soccer statistics such as possession, shots on target and number of fouls committed. However, there are numerous approaches to expected goals. This article examines the different models used and how they produce different outputs.
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Benjamin Cronin Betting Strategy Last week
What are the most common mistakes sports bettors make? While Betting Resources aims to educate bettors about everything from the basics of betting to predictive models, some bettors still fall into the common traps that inhibit success. This article provides a basic explanation of the common mistakes bettors make and how to avoid them. Read on to learn more.
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Sascha Thomsen Educational Just now
Visualising a bet: What does a betting edge look like? All bettors want to make bets that give them a positive edge, but what does an edge look like? In his Betting Resources’ debut our Head of Analytics answers this enduring question with a unique approach: visualisation of value. Continue reading for some unique insight into what a betting edge looks like.
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How to bet on MMA: The basics of MMA betting MMA is one of the fastest-growing sports in the world. As such, understanding how to bet on MMA is a useful skill for any bettor. Since the 1990s, the sport has wowed audiences worldwide and now attracts a much higher volume of MMA betting. Read on to learn how to bet on MMA and find value in the odds.
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Pinnacle More Sports Aug 9, 2017
Dota 2 betting: Learn how to bet on Dota 2 Dota 2 betting is becoming increasingly popular within the eSports betting market, with Dota's action-cum-RTS style a perfect match for the excitement of online betting. If you want to learn how to bet on Dota 2, keep reading for some expert insight.
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Benjamin Cronin More Sports Sep 1, 2017
How to bet on eSports: A beginner’s guide to eSports betting Whether you’re new to eSports or have been a fan for years, this how to bet on eSports guide is the perfect place to start for any novice bettor. Starting with the very basics, this article will help you learn more about eSports betting and the available markets at Pinnacle. Continue reading to learn how to bet on eSports.
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Benjamin Cronin Betting Psychology Aug 8, 2017
Why patience is an essential trait for any serious bettor Betting for a living is often romanticised as being about big-decision moments and the highs of pulling off life-changing wins. The reality couldn’t be more different. Bettors need to work hard, learn quickly and be disciplined in order to succeed. Patience is also an essential trait for any serious bettor, and this article explains why.
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Joseph Buchdahl Educational Last week
Becoming a profitable bettor: A question of luck or skill Betting is about securing positive expected value to make a consistent profit. As part of that process, bettors must consider the influence randomness and luck have on the outcome of any given event. This article looks at whether becoming a profitable bettor is a question of luck or skill. Continue reading to learn more.
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Mirio Mella Educational Jul 28, 2017
Our 10 most popular articles ever Over eight years Betting Resources has now published in excess of a 1,000 betting related articles. Looking at the most popular articles from that expansive archive provides an insight not only into what interests bettors most but also the way they learn, as well what they find most difficult to understand.
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Benjamin Cronin Tennis Jul 13, 2017
Tennis betting Discussion Day: Learn from expert bettors Pinnacle regularly hosts a Discussion Day on Twitter once a month, giving followers the chance to ask expert bettors and traders any questions about betting on a particular sport. Our most recent Discussion Day focused on tennis betting. Read on for the expert advice that was shared.
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Benjamin Cronin Educational Aug 8, 2017
Soccermatics: Mathematical modelling applied to soccer Sports and maths are often labelled as separate entities, even though they complement each other in many different ways. This Soccermatics book review explains how David Sumpter uses mathematical modelling to bring the numbers and patterns buried within the sport of soccer to the fore. Read on to find out why “the beautiful game” is more scientific than you think.
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Mirio Mella Educational Jun 30, 2017
How R is driving sports betting innovation The idea that bookmakers function by simply balancing bets from recreational punters and taking a cut is a common misconception. The truth is far more interesting, with data science at the heart of modern sports betting innovation, epitomised by how Pinnacle is using R and advanced Machine Learning techniques to stay ahead of the pack.
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Benjamin Cronin Pinnacle Puzzle Jul 20, 2017
Pinnacle Puzzle: Are you smart enough to be a Trader? The Pinnacle Puzzle will train you to think logically and develop skills that can be applied to betting. Some of these questions have been used in Pinnacle’s interview process when hiring a new Trader. Are you smart enough to be a Pinnacle Trader? Read on to see if you’ve got what it takes.
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Mirio Mella Educational Jun 30, 2017
Use Pinnacle's Betting Calculators to measure value Across an archive of over 1,000 betting articles Betting Resources explains how betting works and what value means. With the addition of a range of unique Betting
Calculators you can now measure it for yourself. Continue reading to learn more about Pinnacle’s Betting Calculators and how to use them to your advantage. -
Mark Taylor Soccer May 30, 2017
How will Leicester City perform next season? The 2015/16 Premier League season went down in history after Leicester City surprised everyone and won the title. One year on and they appear to have lost the spark that won them the league, but why? What can bettors expect from Leicester City ahead of the 2017/18 season? Read on to find out.
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Joseph Buchdahl Betting Psychology May 26, 2017
Why do we gamble? Irrationality and overconfidence For disciples of rational choice theory the business of gambling presents a headache. Supposedly individuals always make rational decisions by trying to maximise their advantage whilst minimising their losses. You wouldn’t pay €1,000 for a holiday if you thought it was worth only €500. If a bet has an expected value of zero or lower, why do gamblers strike them? Read on to find out.
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Benjamin Cronin Basketball May 12, 2017
NBA Discussion Day: Learn from expert basketball bettors In preparation for the start of the NBA Finals on June 1, we hosted a NBA Discussion Day on Twitter where some expert basketball bettors passed on their advice to our followers. Read on to find out what you should consider when betting on the NBA.
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Benjamin Cronin Soccer May 8, 2017
How important is a penalty in soccer betting? Due to the fact that soccer is a low scoring game, a penalty kick can often be the difference between winning and losing. Penalties are incredibly valuable to soccer teams, but are they just as important for betting purposes? Can bettors use data to determine the value of a penalty? Read on to find out.
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Joseph Buchdahl Soccer May 3, 2017
What can Arsène Wenger teach bettors about sunk costs? The big debate over Arsène Wenger'd future has divided Arsenal fans into two camps. Is it time for one of the greatest soccer coaches to step down? In this article, we examine what behavioural science has to say about the difficulties of decision making and what bettors can learn from Wenger’s dilemma. Read on to find out.
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Pinnacle Educational Apr 28, 2017
Is R the betting analysis tool of the future? You might have heard of R, the increasingly popular statistical programming language widely used for data analysis, but how can it help you improve your betting? For that purpose, we interviewed our Sports Manager, Jonathan Belke. Read on to find out his own struggles while learning R and what his tips for bettors new to this analysis tool are.
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Joseph Buchdahl Betting Strategy Aug 18, 2017
Choosing a staking method based on your betting profile To be profitable in the betting markets, a bettor needs two things: an edge over the bookmaker and a well-disciplined staking method. In this article, Joseph Buchdahl calculates the profitability and chances of bankruptcy for five different staking methods. Read on to find out which staking method is best for you based on your betting profile.
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Benjamin Cronin Betting Strategy Apr 27, 2017
How to bet on newly promoted teams It might be obvious to say that soccer teams struggle with the jump in quality after winning promotion. However, being able to quantify those struggles could be beneficial to bettors. Analysing newly promoted teams’ results against “better quality” teams in a higher division could highlight odds discrepancies and provide a valuable betting opportunity. Read on to find out more.
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Pinnacle Betting Psychology Jun 12, 2017
Betting psychology: A crash course for aspiring professional bettors If you are trying to learn how to make money in sports betting, you will sooner or later come across the term betting psychology. Can your mindset directly affect your profits? What are the most common mistakes and how can you avoid them? Are you in control of your actions or are they in control of you? Read on for a crash course in betting psychology.
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Benjamin Cronin Baseball Mar 31, 2017
How to bet on baseball: The ultimate baseball betting guide Baseball betting is often cited as one of the most popular markets for sharp bettors. With thousands of yearly fixtures creating a large sample size to apply an analytical approach, learning how to bet on baseball could be the key to successful betting. Want to learn how to bet on baseball? Read on for the ultimate guide on how to bet on baseball.
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Pinnacle Educational May 16, 2017
4 betting lessons from Sir Alex Ferguson With the release of his latest book, Leading, Sir Alex Ferguson took a step back from soccer memoirs to reveal the secrets of his winning ways in the 38 years he spent managing Manchester United and Aberdeen. What are his secrets of success? What can bettors learn from it? Read on to find out.
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Benjamin Cronin Soccer Mar 13, 2017
What effect does weather have on soccer betting? Soccer bettors will know there are countless factors that can influence the result of a match, but how important is it to take the weather into consideration before betting on soccer? Can a change in pitch conditions alter the outcome of your bet? Read on to find out. -
Mirio Mella Educational Mar 17, 2017
Taking Chances - The role of probability in everyday life Understanding and measuring the underlying probability of sporting events is the challenge for all bettors. The same mathematics equally apply - though are less considered - for all kinds of recreational situations from Monopoly to Game Shows as well as life-and-death situations like criminal trials or health diagnoses. Recognising this human blind-spot for the role of probability John Haigh in his book ‘Taking Chances’ provides a fascinating analysis of chance in everyday life and how to make it work in your favour.
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Joseph Buchdahl Betting Strategy Apr 5, 2017
All you need to know to beat the bookies The principle of value betting is not to bet when you think you will win, but when the probability of you winning is greater than that implied by the bookmaker’s odds. To be a profitable bettor means that your judgement is better than your bookmaker’s. In this article, Joseph Buchdahl explains how sportsbooks manage the odds and shows how beating the bookies works. Read on to find out.
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Mirio Mella Betting Strategy Mar 2, 2017
Exploring Duckworth-Lewis: What makes a good model? Successful bettors and bookmakers don’t rely on hunches, their gut or putting a finger in the air to predict future outcomes. More often than not they build models. But what makes a good model? Well the answer is often ‘having a good question’. Cricket was plagued by a difficult question for 30 years until the Duckworth-Lewis method provided an elegant solution which provides a great case study for would be model-builders. -
Mark Taylor Soccer Mar 1, 2017
How to predict draws in soccer Unlike higher scoring sports, such as rugby and American football, a soccer match has a significant chance of ending up as a draw. In this article, our soccer expert, Mark Taylor, shows how to predict which matches are more likely to end in a draw. Easier said than done? Read on to find out.
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Chris McCarthy Boxing Feb 27, 2017
Boxing betting strategy: The importance of pre-fight preparations Danny Wilson has previously worked with elite boxers as a strength and conditioning coach. This job has given him an inside look at how boxers prepare for a fight - something bookmakers don’t have access to. His expert knowledge can be used as part of a boxing betting strategy to get an edge over the bookmaker. Read this interview to find out how. -
Mark Taylor Soccer Feb 28, 2017
How often is a 2-1 lead overturned in soccer? Soccer forums are full of perceived wisdom that is largely unsupported by actual data and often overstates the likelihood of an event occurring. In this article, Mark Taylor puts the 2-1 scoreline to the test by examining all instances of a comeback from a 2-1 lead in a single Premier League season. Read on to find out the result. -
Joseph Buchdahl Betting Strategy Just now
How to test the credibility of a tipster's record For those of us who use tipsters to find positive expectation there are two important questions. Is the tipster lucky or skilled? And is the track record genuine? We have previously investigated how to evaluate a tipster's ability and how to test a betting record for evidence of predictive skill over luck. Now we look at how you can assess a record’s credibility. Read on to find out.
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Joe Peta Betting Strategy Jun 10, 2017
The Kelly Criterion - A stock trader and betting expert’s perspective Wisdom of the crowd insight - based on the Betting Resources list of most popular articles - underlines the perceived importance of staking methods. My experience echoes this, so when invited to contribute a betting strategy article, Kelly Criterion seemed both a natural choice and the perfect way to underline the relevance of what I learned on Wall Street and successfully applied to sports betting.
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Mirio Mella Educational Jan 30, 2017
An interview with world famous sports bettor Lewis Deyong Listening to our customers, one thing is crystal clear; you want to know how to improve your betting and you want to hear it from real experts. What better way to deliver on that request than by interviewing a truly expert gambler who has spent six decades successfully setting, and beating, the odds.
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Mirio Mella Betting Strategy Apr 27, 2017
The search for truth: Signal vs. Noise Opinion is free, but information is very expensive, which is a harsh reality for bettors who derive an edge from reacting to news before the odds do. In an ever-more digitally connected world the volume of free opinion is rising exponentially, bringing us to the point of a ‘post-truth’ era. So how do you separate the signal from the noise, and what does the recent US Election tell us about that?
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Joseph Buchdahl Betting Strategy Feb 2, 2017
The law of small numbers in sports betting The law of small numbers is a cognitive bias where people show a tendency to believe that a relatively small number of observations will closely reflect the general population. Read on to test your logical powers with the hospital quiz and find out how graphs can be misleading and what you can do to avoid losses when using stats to place your bets.
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Joseph Buchdahl Betting Strategy Jul 5, 2017
How good are betting tipsters? Betting tipsters often promise high strike rates that will win you a fortune. Although the promise of big profits is alluring, how can you tell the difference between a profitable tipster and a salesman. Read on to find out the two factors you need to evaluate before you decide which expert picks to trust.
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Pinnacle Betting Strategy Sep 19, 2016
How to beat the bookies in the Over/Under market With a large number of soccer bettors looking for more profitable markets than 1X2, where a lack of scoring or a late equaliser can turn even the best betting judgments into losing bets, here's a simple guide on how to beat the bookies in the Over/Under goals markets. A must-read for all soccer bettors.
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Pinnacle Educational Aug 15, 2016
How to calculate betting margins With a large number of bookmakers claiming to offer the best odds and an equally large number of websites comparing betting odds, are you really getting the best deal? In this simple guide we explain how odds work to help you make educated decisions when looking for the best betting odds. Don't place another bet without knowing how much it really costs you.
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Joseph Buchdahl Betting Strategy Jun 13, 2016
What is the favourite–longshot bias? The tendency to overvalue “longshots” and undervalue favourites is widely known in the world of sports betting and finances as the favourite-longshot bias. Learn what it is, how bookmakers take advantage of it and what you can do to survive it with a profit.
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Joseph Buchdahl Betting Strategy Apr 28, 2016
Using the Monte Carlo method to analyse your betting history Following the discussion of Randomness in sporting outcomes, Joseph Buchdahl is taking the analysis of the factor of luck to the next level. Find out how randomness can influence your betting performance and how you can measure it by using Excel.
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Joseph Buchdahl Betting Strategy Mar 22, 2016
Randomness in sports betting Betting on sport is, by nature, a very uncertain business, but can bettors keep a tight grip on the randomness of it all? Joseph Buchdahl looks at the best way to tackle the inevitable randomness in sports betting.
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Pinnacle Betting Strategy Jun 10, 2016
How bookmakers make money Every bettor is looking for ways to beat the bookie. To become a consistently profitable bettor though, a deep understanding of odds calculation is only half of the story; the other half is knowing how bookmakers operate. In this article we lift the lid on the methods that keep both bookmakers and professional bettors profitable.
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Joseph Buchdahl Betting Strategy Feb 22, 2016
What is the Martingale betting system? Some bettors are big believers in money management strategies but are they really as reliable as people make out? Joseph Buchdahl investigated the Martingale betting system to see whether the returns are really worth the risks.
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Joseph Buchdahl Betting Strategy Jan 14, 2016
Regression to the mean in sports betting With forecasting systems mainly based on past performances, understanding regression to the mean is crucial for sports bettors. The 2015-16 EPL season has been no short of surprises so far, raising the question: Are extreme outcomes sustainable? Here’s what statistics have to say about it.
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Pinnacle Betting Strategy Jun 3, 2016
Tennis handicap betting explained If you are interested in tennis betting, it is important to know how to understand handicaps, where the difference in perceived abilities is balanced by applying a game handicap. These markets are a great alternative to the staple of tennis betting, the match winner market.
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Dominic Cortis Betting Strategy Nov 30, 2015
What is the Labouchere betting system? To be profitable in sports betting, staking strategy is as important as finding value odds. With many progressive betting systems, such as the Labouchere betting system, promising almost infinite wealth, are they a good idea to follow? Here’s the academic answer to the question.
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Benjamin Cronin Educational Sep 16, 2016
American odds vs. Decimal odds The format for betting odds can vary depending on which part of the world you live in. The two most common options used are Decimal and American odds. But what is the difference, how do you calculate returns for each format and convert from one to the other? Read on to find out.
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Dominic Cortis Betting Strategy Nov 23, 2016
Taking advantage of errors in models Bookmakers and professional bettors alike use prediction models in order to ensure profits in the betting markets. Whatever the model though, prediction is not a prophecy, as it can be influenced by error. How can bettors spot errors in prediction models and how can they exploit them? Read on to find out.
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Dominic Cortis Betting Strategy Jan 6, 2015
An example of how to build a betting model Following our popular article on how to build a betting model, here is a practical example of creating, applying and testing a betting model that predicts wins, losses and draws in the Premier League. Read on to find out.
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Dominic Cortis Betting Strategy Mar 25, 2015
How to build a betting model How do you build a sports betting model? What steps are involved? What do you need to consider? Follow these steps to build your own quantitative model, and take your betting to the next level.
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Dominic Cortis Betting Strategy Jan 22, 2015
How to use standard deviation for betting As a bettor are you aware that you can use standard deviation to predict betting outcomes? Find out what the standard deviation is, how to calculate it and apply it to your betting.
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Mirio Mella Betting Strategy Oct 24, 2014
Three must-read books for bettors Want to know the best reads for betting? Our Head of Sportsbook was asked to recommend the best betting related books he had read. Find out what his choice was, and why it is so surprising. -
Dominic Cortis Betting Strategy Sep 30, 2014
Using Monte Carlo modelling for betting What models do you use to guide your bets? If you haven’t heard of Monte Carlo simulation you could be missing out. Read on to find out all about it.
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Mark Taylor Football Aug 23, 2016
NFL points totals and the effect of the weather The impact of weather on scoring is often neglected by NFL bettors when betting on the points totals in a game. This article examines one of the more uncommon football betting tips, how wind speed causes points scoring to subside in the NFL. Read on the find out how you can create an opportunity and gain a potential NFL betting edge.
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Pinnacle Betting Strategy Aug 6, 2014
How to calculate Draw No Bet from 1X2 odds If you ever feel constrained by traditional 1X2 options then a Draw No Bet (DNB) option could be what you are looking for. Find out how to calculate this.
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Mirio Mella Betting Psychology Jun 15, 2017
The dangers of weighting probability from intuition Do you know why betting on your favourite team is a bad idea? It’s for the same reason lotteries are so popular and people find judging the likelihood of rare events, like a hole-in-one, so difficult. It comes down to skewed perception resulting from what are known as the Possibility and Certainty Effects. -
Mirio Mella Betting Psychology Jul 11, 2013
The Green Lumber Fallacy One of the most common mistakes made by aspiring bettors is to confuse specialist sports' knowledge with expertise in sports betting. This error manifests in the proliferation of ex-professional sports stars that become self-proclaimed betting experts, and is neatly described by what Nicholas Nassim Taleb termed "Green Lumber Fallacy".
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Mirio Mella Betting Psychology Aug 16, 2013
Wisdom of the Crowds applied to betting If you have a difficult conundrum, it’s reasonable to assume that the more people you survey, the better your solution will be. This theory is known as the ‘wisdom of the crowds’, and is an effective way of making decisions under uncertainty, like estimating the probability or outcome of a sports betting prediction.
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Live soccer betting strategy The default method of soccer betting is increasingly moving from pre-match to live. But how much have bettors’ mind-sets changed to understand where to look for profitable opportunities within soccer matches in progress?
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Benjamin Cronin Soccer Apr 27, 2017
Poisson Distribution: Predict the score in soccer betting Poisson Distribution, coupled with historical data, provides a simple and reliable method for calculating the most likely score in a soccer match which can be applied to betting. This simple walk-through shows how to calculate the necessary Attack/Defence Strength measures along with a handy shortcut to generate the Poisson Distribution values. In no time you'll be predicting soccer scores using the Poisson Distribution.
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Benjamin Cronin Football Last week
How to bet on the NFL: The ultimate NFL betting guide NFL betting is becoming increasingly popular outside of the United States. With even more regular season games planned on UK soil and talk of a London franchise, the popularity of NFL betting will only continue to rise over the next few years. Read on for a comprehensive guide to NFL betting.
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Pinnacle Betting Strategy Feb 15, 2013
What is the Fibonacci betting system? Progressive betting systems aren’t the most glamorous form of soccer betting, but some people claim they can make big profits. We investigated the Fibonacci betting system to see whether the returns were worth the risks.
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Benjamin Cronin Betting Strategy Mar 21, 2017
Double Chance betting: Using odds to calculate your stake The most popular betting market in soccer is the 1X2, but does it offer bettors the most value? Double Chance betting can be a better alternative to both the traditional three-way market and Draw No Bet option because it covers multiple outcomes. How can bettors use the 1X2 odds to calculate stakes for Double Chance betting? Read on to find out.
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Mirio Mella Betting Strategy Mar 24, 2014
Bayesian analysis and sports betting Bettors often seek out new tools to help refine the process of assigning accurate probabilities to the chances of uncertain events happening. This article discusses how Bayesian Analysis – the theory of an 18th Century English Presbyterian Minister named Thomas Bayes – can help sports bettors gauge the outcome of an event.
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Pinnacle Betting Strategy Oct 10, 2012
How do free bets work? When choosing a bookmaker, incentives are especially appealing – but how do free bets work? Unfortunately, a read through these bookmakers’ terms and conditions show that it’s not just free money. Read this article to learn how free bets work & their drawbacks.
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Pinnacle Betting Strategy Oct 11, 2016
Arbitrage betting explained Arbitrage betting promises
risk free returns - the Holy Grail of gambling - so is naturally a very popular topic within the betting community, but how does arbitrage betting work? We have laid out everything you need to know; this is arbitrage betting explained. -
Pinnacle Betting Strategy Jun 6, 2016
What distinguishes winning from losing bettors? One way to distinguish winning from losing players is to look at the odds a player received when they made their bet and compare it with the Pinnacle closing line. Consistently beating the closing odds at Pinnacle can be a strong indicator of long-term betting profits.
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Pinnacle Betting Strategy Aug 17, 2016
How to calculate margins on soccer betting odds The margin a bookmaker applies on the betting odds is the number one information a bettor should know in order to increase long-term profits, with lower margins favoring the bettor and larger margins eating into betting profits. Here’s a simple guide on how to calculate margins on 1X2 odds.
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Pinnacle Betting Strategy Sep 19, 2012
How Bookmakers Work There are two groups of gamblers, those who hope to win and those who plan to win. By understanding how bookmakers work, you can calculate how to become more profitable with your betting and transform your losses into wins. This article explains how bookmakers work with a coin.
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Pinnacle Betting Strategy May 8, 2017
Basic bet types explained Understanding basic bet types is vital for any punter to maximise their opportunity of making a profit. This article explains three basic bet types offered by Pinnacle; 1X2, Handicap and Totals. Continue reading to learn more about the different basic bet types.
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Pinnacle Betting Strategy Oct 22, 2016
How to calculate Expected Value The Expected Value of a bet shows us how much we can expect to win (on average) per bet, and as such is the most valuable calculation a bettor can make when comparing bookmakers odds. How can you calculate Expected Value in sports betting in order to predict your winnings? Read on to find out. -
Pinnacle Betting Strategy Oct 3, 2016
Betting exchanges explained Betting exchanges offer bettors an alternative to the traditional bookmaker with the promise of better value, but how do they work and what are the hidden costs you should be aware of before deciding that they are the best deal for you? Read on to find out.