Psychology & Strategy

Neel previously worked as a teacher and freelance writer before taking the plunge to go full time as a sports bettor and trader. A holder of postgraduate degrees in Philosophy and Psychology, he spends his days trying to beat the bookmakers and improving his betting knowledge, and is also currently writing a book on value betting.

So you’ve done the hard work and found a strategy that works. You feel pretty confident you have an edge over the market. Now you just have to put your bets down and the profits will follow, right?

The truth about variance

Have you ever experienced the feeling of being on a roll? Where everything you touch turns to gold? You might have even convinced yourself that athletes and sports stars are the same and that once they’ve won a couple of times, that they’re a certainty to win again. However, evidence suggests that this Hot Hand effect is overstated and mostly down to luck. What does this mean for your betting and how can you factor this into your own analysis?

The Hot Hand effect: The nature of winning streaks

Imagine that you are appearing on a TV game show. The presenter puts two boxes in front of you and you have to pick one. In one box is a $1 billion prize and in the other, nothing. Would you pick one of the boxes for a 50% chance of getting $1 billion or walk away to get a guaranteed $1 million? What would you do?

The Billion Dollar Question: Assessing the theory

Have you ever wondered if the opposite sex sees gambling in a whole different light than you? Do women win more than men, or are men likely to take more risks? Does our gender dictate our gambling behaviour? Studies have identified the differences in gambling behaviour between men and women, but are there lessons to be learned from the opposite sex?

Gender differences in betting behaviour

Adam Chernoff

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Shane Donnelly

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Tomi Rantanen

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Neel Shah

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