Professional betting

Joseph is a betting analyst who manages the website www.Football-Data.co.uk, providing historical results, match statistics and betting odds data. He is also the author of Fixed Odds Sports Betting: Statistical Forecasting &amp; Risk Management (2003), How to Find a Black Cat in a Coal Cellar: The Truth about Sports Tipsters (2013) and Squares &amp; Sharps, Suckers &amp; Sharks: The Science, Psychology &amp; Philosophy of Gambling (2016).

People often question how much success in betting is down to luck and how much is skill. Want to find out if you're a skilled bettor? Read on to find out how the closing line can be used to test betting skill.

Using the closing line to test your skill in betting

Joseph Buchdahl has published numerous educational materials on measuring randomness in soccer betting, as well as how efficient odds are and why they are so difficult to beat. In his latest article, he delves into that subject once again to take another look at randomness and efficiency in soccer betting.

Another look at randomness and efficiency in soccer betting

Becoming a successful bettor is all about finding Expected Value. With this in mind, how can you find value in soccer betting markets? Read on to find out.

How much value is there in soccer betting markets?

To coin a phrase, “there are two types of bookmaker, my friend, those who take bets and those who make dresses.” To the uninitiated, that might sound a little cryptic. Don’t all bookmakers take bets? And what has dressmaking got to do with bookmaking? To answer the first question, well, it depends. Depends on what? On what sort of bookmaker you are betting with and what sort of bettor you are. We’ll get to the dresses shortly.

A Tale of Two Bookmakers: Sharp vs. recreational models

Will European nations struggle in the intense heat? Can lower-ranked teams pull off an upset with the weather on their side? Joseph Buchdal analyses how the unique heat and humidity in Qatar may benefit a few nations at the 2022 World Cup.

World Cup 2022: Will weather impact performance in Qatar?

The primary task of any sports bettor is to (hopefully) finish with more money than they started with. None of us will win every bet, but provided we win enough to cover the losing bets, our profits from the winners should (hopefully) be greater than the stakes lost on the losers. To put it another way, our overall return will (hopefully) be greater than the total amount we have bet. The question is: what is a good return?

What is a good ROI in sports betting?

How shocking was the 2022 World Cup? Was Japan beating Germany all that surprising? Joseph Buchdahl crunches the data to determine if major upsets in a massive tournament is as surprising as we may think.

Shocks and upsets: How surprising was the 2022 World Cup?

Joseph Buchdahl explores prediction models and odds efficency during the 2022 World Cup and reveals just how close Pinnacle's prediction models are to true probability.
Read on to learn how bookmakers predict outcomes and see how Pinnacle stacked up against competitors.

Shocks and upsets: Comparing the efficiency of bookmakers during the 2022 World Cup

Along with topics like closing line value, distinguishing luck from skill, and what makes a good return on investment, there is one other debate that comes up frequently amongst aspiring sports bettors: should I make a large number of low value bets, or a small number of more selective high value bets?

To Bet High Volume or High Value? That is the Question

The expected goal statistic is a popular prediction tool. Can bettors use expected goals to determine an accurate outcome? Betting analyst Joseph Buchdahl crunches the data and determines whether expected goals can predict soccer outcomes.

Can xG be used to predict soccer matches for a betting profit?

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