Psychology & Strategy

<p>Jonathon studied Finance and Economics at the University of Sydney, where he wrote a thesis on EPL betting market efficiency as part of his Finance Honours degree. He has since worked as an Equity Strategist and as a Bookmaker. Jonathon has a particular interest in tennis, cricket, and behavioural biases.</p>

There have been numerous studies into the favourite-longshot bias and the irrational behaviour of bettors when it comes to analysing odds. This bias is often viewed through the lens of the psychology of a bettor, but what role does the bookmaker play? Read on to find out.

Who is responsible for the favourite-longshot bias?

People often say that nothing in life is free. However, plenty of bookmakers will offer customers a “free” bet. Whether these free bets are actually free is up for debate, but bettors will still want to know how to get the best value out of these offers. Read on to find out how to get the most out of a free bet.

The maths and psychology of free bets

There are countless betting strategies that seem to provide a legitimate means of beating the market and turning a consistent profit. Middling is one such strategy, but does it actually work? Read on to find out.

Middling: What’s the point worth?

When making tennis predictions, particularly in-play, bettors should strongly consider the impact momentum can have on the result. In his latest article, Jonathon Brycki builds a model to understand and price momentum between sets in a tennis match.

Part one: Modelling momentum in a tennis match

In a previous article, Jonathon Brycki showed how momentum in tennis can have an impact on the result of a match. In this article, he explains how he developed a refined version of his model to analyse this impact both between sets and over an entire match across various betting markets. Read on to find out more.

Part two: Modelling momentum in a tennis match

What is the somatic marker hypothesis? Do emotions impact decisions? Does hunger help you deal with uncertainty? Jonathan Brycki explores the intersection of human psychology and physiology on decision-making.

Hungry for a bet: Does hunger help you deal with uncertainty?

A common misconception is that a bookmaker’s job is simply to “balance the book” to guarantee profit. While a bookmaker will often manage their risk across all the available options in a market, this might not always be the case. Read on to find out how often a bookmaker balances their book.

How often does a bookmaker balance their book?

This generation of tennis fans have been blessed with three of the greatest players of all time. Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic have reigned supreme in men’s tennis for over a decade, but who is the best player out of the three? Read this article to find out what the betting markets suggest.

Who is the tennis GOAT? A view from the betting markets

If you’re betting on tennis, you will likely start with the competitors taking part when analysing the odds. The court surface will of course come into play, as will the general conditions the match is being played in. But how often do you think about the ball? How important is the ball in tennis? Read on to find out.

New balls please: What impact does the ball have on a tennis match?

The 2020 US election was the biggest betting market in Pinnacle’s history. While this is interesting for a number of reasons, it’s not necessarily surprising. The US election is arguably the one human centric event that has an impact on the greatest number of people on Earth. And this year’s incumbent is especially good at creating a headline. Add to that we’re in the middle of a pandemic, limiting many people’s choice of entertainment to something from their couch. It’s really no wonder betting interest was so high. As I write, a number of media organisations have called the election in Biden’s favour and bets have been settled by numerous bookmakers to this end. Betfair’s market remains open, having traded almost £600 million.

Prediction markets vs. polls – what to watch next election

Gianluca Leo

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