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While the first few weeks of the MLB isn’t near long enough to model performance, this small sample of data is still enough to help you make informed decision in the baseball betting markets over the next couple of weeks. Read on for an early assessment of the National League teams in the 2019 MLB season.

Analysing the start of the 2019 MLB season: National League

We are a little over two weeks into the baseball season and we can now begin to analyse how teams in MLB are performing from a betting perspective. If you’re planning on betting over the next week or two then the information in this article should be very useful. Read on for an early assessment of the American League teams in the 2019 MLB season.

Analysing the start of the 2019 MLB season: American League

Jon Jones is looking to defend his light heavyweight championship against Thiago Santos at UFC 239 at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on July 7. Will the American be successful in his defence attempt? Read this article to inform your Jones vs. Santos predictions.

UFC 239 preview: Inform your Jones vs. Santos predictions

Uncertainty, market efficiency and the Kelly Criterion are three of the most common discussion points amongst bettors. In his latest guest contribution for Pinnacle, @PlusEVAnalytics tries to answer the questions that often arise out of these discussions. Read on to find out more.

Part one: Toward a theory of everything

In part one of this article, @PlusEVAnalytics begun his attempt to combine questions about sample size, regression to the market, market efficiency and the Kelly Criterion into a betting version of the theory of everything. In part two, he develops this theory and tries to answer those questions. Read on to find out more. 

Part two: Toward a theory of everything

Week 1 of the 2019 NFL season through up a few surprising results and some notably one-sided games. This has resulted in some interesting line movement across different games, but what has caused this? In this article, @PlusEVAnalytics looks at NFL line movement through the lens of parameter uncertainty. Read on to find out more.

Parameter uncertainty and meta-probabilities in NFL line movement

Bettors will often focus on the idea of success in betting. People want to fail as little as possible and win as much as they can. Andrew Mack, author of Statistical Sports Models in Excel, believes that failure could be the secret to success in betting. In his debut article for Pinnacle, he explains why.

Failure: The secret to success?

Who will win the NBA Finals? Accuscore use their advanced simulation models to predict the outcome. Learn why Accuscore think the Boston Celtics will take home the title and inform your NBA Finals predictions.

Accuscore Prediction - Celtics prepare for an upset in the NBA Finals

Are the Colorado Avalanche ready to usurp the throne? According to Accuscore’s simulations – and plenty of statistics – they are.

Accuscore Prediction - Avalanche to end Tampa’s reign in Stanley Cup final

In my first Pinnacle Sports article, I analysed the performance of men’s tennis underdogs by comparing Grand Slam performance against other ATP tournaments.


Betting on grand slams vs. non-grand slams


The conclusion was that, overall, it was a disaster to bet on the underdogs. We saw that the favourite-longshot bias was much more prevalent in Grand Slam matches than non-Grand Slam matches.
Some of the reasons we adduced were: a lower demand elasticity for underdogs in Grand Slams than in non-Grand Slams by bettors, bettors not fully evaluating the impact of the “best-of-five sets factor”, and/or bookmakers being more risk averse on longshots due to an increased risk.
In this article I have conducted the same exercise for the ATP Masters 1000 events.

Underdog Betting: Why bet on the underdog in an ATP Masters 1000 tournament?

Sam Pearce

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