Strategy & Statistics

Dominic is a lecturer in actuarial science and insurance risk at The University of Malta. He is an actuary by training and his research focuses on risk with special emphasis on betting markets, financial derivatives, ruin and insurtech. Dominic's application of mathematical strategies to specific sports has proven to be an invaluable tool for bettors.

Bettors should always look for a mathematical edge rather than rely on their impulses. Learning how to use the Kelly Criterion, for example, is a great way for bettors to determine how much they should stake. Read on to find out.

How to Use Kelly Criterion for Betting

Bookmakers and professional bettors alike use prediction models in order to ensure profits in the betting markets. Whatever the model though, prediction is not a prophecy, as it can be influenced by error. How can bettors spot errors in prediction models and how can they exploit them? Read on to find out.

Taking advantage of errors in models

Do odds represent true probabilities of an event? A leisurely stroll in the library and the discovery of a highly cited academic book is what put Dominic Cortis on the quest to discover why odds deviate from actual results. Read on to find out what bettors can learn from behavioural economics.

Applying behavioural economics in sports betting

Over the past year we analysed which teams caused the most and least surprises during the 2015/16 season by measuring a metric called Brier score. By November, West Ham were the surprise package due to their amazing away wins and by the end of the season Leicester caused the biggest upset bookmakers have seen in the Premier League history. Who will be this year’s surprise in the EPL?

A Brier look back at the Premier League teams

In a series of articles, we look back at the last season of different leagues using a metric called the Brier score to find out which teams providing the most surprising results. Here we look at the surprise factors in Bundesliga. Read on to find out why you should keep an eye on the lower ranking teams.

A Brier look back at Bundesliga 2015/16

Both Juventus and Sassuolo performed well last season and managed to get a place in a European competition. While this was expected for the Old Lady, it was not for Sassuolo. Following a look back at last season’s Premier League and Bundesliga surprises, this article concludes the trilogy by looking at Serie A surprises through our Brier score glasses.

A Brier look back at Serie A 2015/16

The advantage of playing games at home in most sports is widely accepted as fact, but is this actually the case? Is playing at home an advantage in soccer and if so, how do we measure that advantage? In this article, Dominic Cortis shares his thoughts on home team advantage in soccer.

Analysing home advantage in soccer

One of the limitations with a Poisson model is the lack of predictive power when it comes to the probability of scoreless draws. This article explains how to adjust a Poisson model in order to deal with scoreless draws. Read on to find out more.

Inflating or deflating the chance of a draw in soccer

The World Cup is undoubtedly the biggest competition in world soccer. Happening once in a four-year cycle, fans will be looking forward to enjoying 64 matches over one month in Russia. However, the tournament can often leave bettors with a headache. What makes betting on the World Cup so difficult? Read on to find out.

Why betting on the World Cup is a data nightmare

Dutching is one of the less commonly known betting strategies out there. That is because it contradicts the usual approach of choosing which option offers the most value and instead, spreading your risk across several outcomes. What is dutching and how does dutching work? Read on to find out.

What is dutching? The “bet on everything else” strategy explained

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