How important is age and experience at the World Cup 2022?

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These unusual circumstances make it a tournament that is difficult to forecast. International soccer is hard to predict at the best of times, as most teams only play around 10 times a year, often with months in between. However, there are trends from past tournaments, such as the impact provided by a good qualifying campaign, which can help guide our betting selections.

The 2018 World Cup came down to a battle of youth against experience. The final between France and Croatia saw the former field 19-year-old Kylian Mbappé, winner of the Best Young Player award in Russia that summer. On the opposite side was Luka Modrić, 32 years old and the recipient of the Golden Ball, the award handed to the tournament’s best player.

Mbappé prevailed, with his second-half goal crowning a 4-2 win for France, who became champions of the world for a second time. In terms of the best player on either side, youth had won, but how important is age and experience at the World Cup?

The information we need is freely available and very easy to research via Wikipedia. There are pages listing the squads for nations that competed at each previous World Cup, with the date of birth and cap total provided for every player.

At the end of each tournament, FIFA determines a finishing order for the teams based on their performance record, and we can use this ranking to determine how successful each country was.

How does age affect performance at the World Cup?

We will focus on the last six editions, from 1998 to 2018, as they were the ones which featured 32 competing nations, just as there will be in Qatar this year.

The most important thing to note is that there is no significant relationship between World Cup squads being older or having lots of appearances and then going onto be successful. Using Spearman's Rank Correlation Coefficient, which runs on a scale from -1 (perfectly negative correlation) to +1 (positive), we find that there is no important pattern whatsoever between caps or age and finishing position at the World Cup.

Average age at the World Cup vs. Finishing position

World Cup Year	Average Caps vs. Finishing Position Correlation	Average Age vs. Finishing Position Correlation
2018	0.210	0.029
2014	0.031	-0.042
2010	-0.053	-0.167
2006	0.058	0.105
2002	0.245	0.018
1998	-0.195	0.238

Player quality combined with excellent management will always ultimately win out. If we look at the top 10 teams for average caps per player, we find the most successful team were the United States, side who reached the quarter-finals in 2002.

Player quality combined with excellent management will always ultimately win out.

However, their side four years earlier had even more experience – an average of 53 international appearances per player – and they finished dead last. As did Saudi Arabia in 2002 and Panama four years ago despite also being in the leading countries for experience.

Not that the 10 least experiences in terms of caps did much better (albeit none of them did as bad as the aforementioned most experienced). The Senegal and Spain sides in 2002 each averaged just 18 caps per player yet were able to reach the last eight of the competition that year. Both were knocked out there though, so the sweet spot of international experience resides closer to the middle, as we shall see in due course.

Qatar World Cup: Why age doesn’t mean experience

Experience and age are not as closely linked as you might expect. Only two of the 10 squads with the most caps also appear in the 10 oldest list. The outcome for the latter group is largely the same, with two quarter-finalists (Denmark and Germany in 1998) the best they can offer.

Our research suggests that teams are getting slightly older and more experienced.

There are two sides who reached the last eight among the youngest teams too: the Senegal side of 2002 that we’ve already mentioned and fellow Africans Ghana eight years later. Had it not been for an infamous Luis Suárez handball, the Ghanaians would’ve been the youngest semi-finalists by almost a year per man, but it was not to be.

You may have noticed that most of the above examples at either ends of the spectrum are from over 20 years ago. While there are inevitably outliers at every World Cup, our research suggests that teams are getting slightly older and more experienced.

Average player age at the World Cup

World Cup Year	Average Caps Per Player	Average Player Age
1998	29.0	26.9
2002	30.7	26.9
2006	32.7	26.8
2010	31.2	26.8
2014	33.6	26.8
2018	35.4	27.4

If we group countries together by their finishing position, then a remarkable anomaly reveals itself. The last six World Cup runners-up have on average been the oldest teams, where the winners have been the third-youngest.

The last six World Cup runners-up have on average been the oldest teams.

The difference in caps is far less dramatic, though it is interesting to see that four of the top six most-experienced finishing positions are in the bottom five.

World Cup finishing position vs. Average age and Average Caps

Tournament Final Position	Average Caps	Average Age	Cap Rank	Age Rank
1	31.7	26.4	12	30
2	34.2	27.9	7	1
3	31.0	26.6	18	27
4	29.3	26.9	28	17
5	30.3	27.3	22	5
6	29.2	26.8	29	18
7	28.0	26.3	30	31
8	33.7	27.7	8	2
9	30.3	27.0	21	14
10	29.6	26.8	25	19
11	31.4	27.2	16	7
12	39.4	26.8	2	22
13	33.7	26.7	9	24
14	29.7	27.1	24	10
15	38.2	27.5	3	3
16	29.7	27.1	23	11
17	31.2	26.6	17	28
18	31.4	27.2	15	8
19	30.9	27.1	19	9
20	31.5	26.0	14	32
21	29.5	26.9	26	16
22	30.7	27.0	20	13
23	33.7	27.3	10	6
24	27.6	26.8	31	21
25	31.7	26.7	13	25
26	29.4	26.7	27	23
27	26.2	26.6	32	26
28	38.0	26.9	4	15
29	34.8	27.4	6	4
30	33.5	27.0	11	12
31	36.9	26.5	5	29
32	40.0	26.8	1	20

If we exclude the Italy team which lifted the World Cup in 2006 (with a squad average age of 28.2 years) for the sake of argument, then the other five winners in our study were just 26.0 on average and would be the youngest side in any of the finishing positions.

While correlation is not causation, the younger starting XI has won the last six World Cup finals. 

It’s possible that with the tournament normally taking place at the end of a long and tough season, having younger players has proven advantageous. While correlation is not causation, the younger starting XI has won the last six World Cup finals. There is no pattern for the caps totals, though, with three more experienced teams going all the way and three falling at the final hurdle.

Year	Team	Outcome	Caps Per Player	Average Age
2018	France	Winner	41.6	25.8
2018	Croatia	Runners-up	55.6	28.9
2014	Germany	Winner	56.8	26.8
2014	Argentina	Runners-up	39.7	27.9
2010	Spain	Winner	52.9	26.8
2010	Netherlands	Runners-up	48.5	27.7
2006	Italy	Winner	39.2	29.0
2006	France	Runners-up	55.1	29.3
2002	Brazil	Winner	35.9	26.0
2002	Germany	Runners-up	25.1	27.8
1998	France	Winner	29.4	27.6
1998	Brazil	Runners-up	51.8	28.9

To account for both age and caps, we can use a simple experience score. This is calculated by dividing the average number of appearances for a team by their average age. A young side with lots of experience would generate a high score, where an old team with fewer caps would be low.

When grouping teams by their finishing position, the average experience score across the last six World Cups is 1.19. It is interesting to note that the winners, the runners-up, and the third-place sides all fall within 0.04 of that mark, with only one of the top eight being more than 0.1 away on average.

Tournament Final Position	Average Caps	Average Age	Experience Score
1	31.7	26.4	1.20
2	34.2	27.9	1.23
3	31.0	26.6	1.17
4	29.3	26.9	1.09
5	30.3	27.3	1.11
6	29.2	26.8	1.09
7	28.0	26.3	1.06
8	33.7	27.7	1.22

In other words, history suggests that the right blend of age and experience can often pay dividends. It will be fascinating to see what unfolds in Qatar, and once the squads are announced it may be worth bettors compiling this data for the 32 countries taking part.

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