The Women’s Singles event at Wimbledon looks to be an ultra-competitive tournament, with no outstanding favourite. Dan Weston is here to share his thoughts on those with aspirations for the 2023 title.
Realistically, grass is the biggest leveller between the world number one and most outstanding player on the WTA Tour, Iga Świątek, and the rest of the field. Świątek is consistently around even money or shorter in Grand Slam events, but is bigger priced here at *4.22 currently for the title, on what is probably her least favourite surface.
Wimbledon 2023 predictions: Will the grass court thwart another Świątek title?
Statistically, there’s not even a great deal of evidence that Świątek (105% combined service/return points won percentage on grass in the last two years) is the best grass-courter on tour. While she will certainly have her supporters based on reputation, the Pole has much to do in order to show she can be dominant on this surface. It will be interesting to see how she fares in the Bad Homburg warm-up event this week.
An early loss for Świątek in Germany could even see her not being the outright favourite at the start of Wimbledon. Aryna Sabalenka *4.67 is barely behind her in the market, has shown more aptitude on grass, not to mention a more potent serve. 2022 winner Elena Rybakina *5.040 rounds off the trio in single-digit pricing here at Pinnacle, but she comes into the tournament with doubts after a loss to Donna Vekić in Berlin last week.
Wimbledon 2023 predictions: The genuine contenders
Next up in the market is Ons Jabeur at *11.51, and the Tunisian player - runner-up here in 2022 - looks to be a realistic contender. Her grass data over the last two years is the best on tour, and it will be useful to assess Jabeur’s level at Eastbourne this coming week in the warm-up event on the south coast of England – where she easily got past Jasmine Paolini in the early rounds.
Petra Kvitova *18.73 is another player coming into the event with grass court pedigree, and indeed, some good recent form following her win in Berlin without dropping a set. It would be a real surprise to see Kvitová’s price stay at this level in advance of the draw, and I can see her becoming the fourth or fifth favourite prior to Friday’s draw.
Wimbledon 2023 predictions: Do the outsiders present good value?
Other players with realistic ambitions for a good fortnight include Barbora Krejčíková *23.050, who reached the final in Birmingham last week, and Jeļena Ostapenko *33.940, who defeated Krejčíková in that final. In fact, Ostapenko looks like one of the best options among those at bigger prices.
Another player worth considering prior to the draw is Ekaterina Alexandrova, priced at *41.69, who is a fast-surface specialist and won in 's-Hertogenbosch before reaching the semi-final in Berlin. Alexandrova is arguably the one of the most in-form players on tour right now, and could easily give some high seeds a very tough meeting indeed. In fact, there will be plenty of big names who Alexandrova may well start off as the pre-match favourite against.
Finally, for some of the players towards the top of the Outrights, there are a few who are unlikely to have a big impact. Coco Gauff *14.16 hasn’t impressed as of late, while Caroline Garcia *27.46 is struggling with consistency, having failed to win three matches in a row since the start of March.
Mirra Andreeva *27.46 is certainly a name to look out for in the future, but is yet to play a main tour match on grass, while Belinda Bencic *36.31 is a fitness doubt, as is Paula Badosa, who is currently at the same price.
Don't miss Dan’s preview of the Men's Singles tournament at the 2023 Wimbledon Championships.