Do tennis players perform better at big tournaments?

Recently, Australian tennis prodigy Nick Kyrgios mentioned that he had considerably more motivation for bigger events such as Grand Slam or Masters tournaments, as opposed to smaller lower-profile tournaments.

While this is perhaps understandable, it is rare for a player to publicly make such a comment. Indeed, there is a general yet unrealistic perception among fans and bettors alike that a player will try their best in every match they participate in.

Exceeding expectations

In truth, however, few players are able to do this, with the likes of David Ferrer - who looks like he treats every single match he competes in as if he were in a Grand Slam final - being rare exceptions.

Joining Kyrgios in the bracket of performing better in bigger tournaments, but still well in both bigger and smaller events, were Russian youngster Andrey Rublev and American big-server John Isner

In fact, analysis of Kyrgios’s data shows he has exceeded bookmaker expectations in both 250 & 500 level tournaments as well as Masters 1000 and Grand Slam tournaments. Kyrgios has recorded a strong return of investment of 8.51% in 250s and 500s combined (based on Pinnacle’s closing prices) and a superb ROI of 16.40% in Masters and Slams combined throughout his career.

These are based on a hypothetical £100 flat stake on each of his career matches up to and including matches played on the 6th October 2017. Of the top 50 ATP players, a number of others were also able to exceed Pinnacle’s market expectations based on the above staking plan and the table below illustrates this:

Lucas Pouille and Damir Dzumhur lead the way in being underrated by the market, with excellent double-digit overall ROI data for both lower and higher-level events, while third-placed Alexander Zverev’s strong overall figures have been built on a foundation of performing well in smaller events. Jack Sock was another player who also fitted this particular dynamic.

Conversely, joining Kyrgios in the bracket of performing better in bigger tournaments, but still well in both bigger and smaller events, were Russian youngster Andrey Rublev and American big-server John Isner. Isner’s inclusion here may be something of a shock, given his extremely impressive record in smaller 250-level American events. Yet it’s worth noting that he’s frequently a heavy favourite in matches in these tournaments.

Looking at the difference in return on investment figures, it is possible to establish which players follow Kyrgios, Rublev and Isner in performing significantly better in bigger tournaments. The table below shows the players in the top 50 who have yielded 5% ROI or greater improvement in Masters and Grand Slam tournaments, compared to 250 and 500 level events:

Buoyed by his run to the final of the Monte Carlo Masters this year, which included underdog wins over Andy Murray, Marin Cilic and Lucas Pouille, Albert Ramos leads the way. He has a positive career double-digit ROI in bigger events but a double-digit negative ROI in smaller ones.

The big occasion

The aforementioned Pouille recorded even bigger positive ROI in the higher-profile events. It’s also interesting that Stan Wawrinka’s figures indicate he has performed much better in bigger events than smaller ones, backing up the popular consensus that he is a man for the big occasion.

Tournament organisers should also note this type of data prior to committing to expensive appearance fees for players. Certainly, 250 level event organisers should avoid giving players these huge monetary incentives just for turning up if they have a poor record of performing well in smaller tournaments.

On the other hand, there were a number of players who fitted more of a ‘flat-track bully’ dynamic, by way of recording more impressive results in small events and underperforming in bigger tournaments.

It’s not entirely a surprise to see certain names performing much better in smaller events. While Rafael Nadal is often described as the King of Clay, Pablo Cuevas could be considered the ‘King of 250 level clay’, given the Uruguayan’s record in these events. Meanwhile, bigger events with more rounds - particularly over best-of-five sets - appear to create issues for Milos Raonic’s frail body.

Big-event performance

Robin Haase has often been criticised for buckling under pressure, so his underperformance in big events doesn’t come as a shock, while Marin Cilic and Grigor Dimitrov have often flattered to deceive in Grand Slam events (although Cilic has at least had some success in these).

Stan Wawrinka’s figures indicate he has performed much better in bigger events than smaller ones, backing up the popular consensus that he is a man for the big occasion.

Finally, it’s worth evaluating how the historically higher-ranked players in the current top 50 have performed in bigger tournaments compared to smaller ones. When compiling the data for this article, it became apparent that players who’ve spent a lot of time in the top 10 all possessed one particular dynamic - they played more matches in Grand Slam and Masters events than they did in 250/500 tournaments.

Indeed, the traditional ‘elite four’ of Nadal, Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray were the only four players on tour to have played over double the matches in Masters and Grand Slams than they did in 250/500 level events throughout their career.

Djokovic was by far the biggest discrepancy here, playing 3.05 times more matches in bigger events than smaller ones, with Nadal and Federer (2.20) having the same ratio. Murray was marginally behind at 2.15. Of the remaining players on tour, Kyrgios’s desire to be on the big stage was illustrated by him playing matches in big tournaments 1.76 times as much as in smaller ones.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (1.51) was the only other player with a ratio in excess of 1.50. In total, 12 players in the current top 50 have played more matches in big tournaments than small ones and are listed below:

Overall, there was a small but noticeable increase in performance in bigger events from this dozen players. Combined, they have played 3,413 matches and yielded blind-backed profits of £3,195 from a hypothetical £100 stake at Pinnacle Sports closing prices (ROI of 0.94%). This ROI increased to 1.76% in big tournaments, where they generated profits of £9,966 from 5,661 matches.

In conclusion, there does appear to be slight evidence that, generally, big-name players do have an extra gear for bigger events. However, identifying more specific player tendencies - as is often the case - is a strategy more likely to yield betting profits.