With the ATP Masters 1000 in Toronto starting on Monday, it’s time to look at the conditions and contenders ahead of one of the major warm-up events for the US Open. Tennis data analyst Dan Weston delves into the market value plays.
With the ATP Masters 1000 in Toronto starting on Monday, it’s time to look at the conditions and contenders ahead of one of the major warm-up events for the US Open. Tennis data analyst Dan Weston delves into the value plays.
Big tournaments in the tennis world never seem to cease, with the two North American Masters taking place shortly after Wimbledon, which lead into the US Open later on in August. Following his statement victory in London, Carlos Alcaraz will go into these events having inflicted a significant psychological blow to the field. The Spaniard tops the Outright market here at Pinnacle for Toronto, and is currently trading at *2.280 [+180] for the title with Novak Djokovic absent from the tournament.
This is ahead of *4.530 [+353] Daniil Medvedev, who won the last event here in 2021. However, Alcaraz eased past him at Wimbledon in conditions which should have been a leveller in Medvedev’s favour. Having said that, it’s worth pointing out that the court speed here in Toronto is probably going to be slightly on the quicker side of medium-paced, with a higher service hold percentage and aces per game count than the ATP hard court mean figures in recent years.
ATP Canadian Open: The challengers
In theory at least, this should negate the threat of some of the more return-oriented players in the field, although the market has effectively done that already. Very few are priced just short of the 100.00 mark, and the implied percentage of the odds suggests that a big name is very likely to be celebrating next Sunday.
Jannik Sinner *9.960 [+898] and Stefanos Tsitsipas *10.870 [+982] will have their supporters, although both have struggled as of late. Sinner has the better data on hard courts over the last year, but has retired or given walkovers several times recently, and hardly convinced at Wimbledon against mediocre opposition before falling in straight sets to Djokovic.
ATP Canadian Open: The outside picks
Of the next tier of players in the market, Taylor Fritz *17.210 [+1621] has the best hard court numbers. However, he was surprisingly beaten by Tallon Griekspoor in Washington last week, and the likes of Casper Ruud *37.140 [+3614] will also be on the shortlist of many. Data, at least, would be less keen on someone like Holger Rune, who hasn’t impressed on hard court compared to the players priced around him in the Outright market.
Looking at the draw, top seed Alcaraz has Rune in his quarter, which is a big tick for the Spaniard, and either Tsitsipas or Sinner as his semi-final opponent, which will be trickier. As for number two seed Medvedev in the bottom half, Fritz is in his quarter - a negative - and he would face either Rublev or Ruud (if the tournament goes towards seedings) in a potential semi-final. Pinnacle also offers ATP Toronto winning quarter market, with the first quarter currently leading the way.
Overall, the draw looks to slightly favour Alcaraz, which is why his market price looks fairly reasonable. Medvedev at his peak would be a threat, but we haven’t seen that much this year, so it’s far from guaranteed.
We are all set for a fascinating week in Canada, although based on the market odds and player data, it’s difficult to anticipate a long shot coming through the field and taking the title.