Back a Wiener - A look at the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest odds

He did it again! Joey “Jaws” Chestnut once again broke his own world record in 2021 by eating 76 hot dogs in 10 minutes and claimed his sixth consecutive win since losing to Matt Stonie in 2015. This means Chestnut has won 14 out of the last 15 contests dating back to 2007.

Believe it or not, while there are some people out there looking for value in the current Wimbledon matches, Tour de France or Major League Baseball, others will be examining the odds ahead of the world’s best-known hot dog eating contest.

Bettors can now bet on whether Joey “Jaws” Chestnut will claim his 15th Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest title or if he or any other competitor will devour more than 76 hot dogs.

What is Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest?

Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest allegedly began in 1916 but has only seen regular contests since the 1970s and is now held every year on July 4. Considered to be the highlight of the competitive eating calendar, millions of viewers tune in to watch the competition. In addition to the acclaim that comes with devouring more hot dogs than anyone else, whoever consumes the most wins the $10,000 top prize.

Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest betting is obviously a bit of fun, but with some basic knowledge of how the competition works and a quick look at previous results, there could be some value on offer. Joey Chestnut is the clear favourite at 1.003* to win, with the odds for the men’s competition currently favouring Over 74.5 hot dogs at 1.769* (Under is priced at 2.070*).

Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest format

The International Federation of Competitive Eating (IFOCE) – yes, it is a legitimate federation - states that the winner of Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest is the contestant that consumes and keeps down (this is an important if rather unpalatable thought) the most hot dogs and buns (HDB) in the allotted time (10 minutes).

Drinks are permitted when eating, with water being a popular choice, as are condiments – because you might like a touch of mustard with your 74th hot dog.

A scorekeeper is assigned to each contestant to keep track of each hot dog consumed. Hot dogs that are not consumed in their entirety will count, provided a sufficient amount has been eaten. Hot dogs still in a contestant’s mouth when the time has elapsed will also count if they are then swallowed.

Messy eating is punishable by a yellow penalty card and contestants can be disqualified if they regurgitate – just because they’re stuffing down dogs, doesn’t mean they shouldn’t exhibit great table manners.

If the scores are tied after 10 minutes, it goes to a five hot dog eat-off to see who can eat them the quickest and if the contestants still cannot be split then it will go to a sudden-death single hot dog eat-off.

Eat-offs are a rarity though, having only occurred twice in the history of the contest, with the first instance in 1980 and the most recent in 2008 when Joey Chestnut and Takeru Kobayashi tied on 59 hot dogs. Chestnut then defeated Kobayashi by being the first to finish his plate of five to win the mustard-yellow belt.

Year (Women)	Winner	HDB
2021	Joey Chestnut	76
2021 (W)	Michelle Lesco	30.75
2020	Joey Chestnut	75
2020 (W)	Miki Sudo	48.5
2019	Joey Chestnut	71
2019 (W)	Miki Sudo	31
2018	Joey Chestnut	74
2018 (W)	Miki Sudo	37
2017	Joey Chestnut	72
2017 (W)	Miki Sudo	41
2016	Joey Chestnut	70
2016 (W)	Miki Sudo	38.5
2015	Matt Stonie	62
2015 (W)	Miki Sudo	38
2014	Joey Chestnut	61
2014 (W)	Miki Sudo	34
2013	Joey Chestnut	69
2013 (W)	Sonya Thomas	36.75
2012	Joey Chestnut	68
2012 (W)	Sonya Thomas	45
2011	Joey Chestnut	62
2011 (W)	Sonya Thomas	40
2010	Joey Chestnut	54
2009	Joey Chestnut	68
2008	Joey Chestnut	59
2007	Joey Chestnut	66
2006	Kakeru Kobayashi	53.75

*Kobayashi won six straight titles between 2001 and 2006.

The fluctuation in the numbers could be due to the increased expectations of Joey Chestnut over time. It is interesting to note that, despite winning, he massively underperformed in 2010 – the disparity between Hot Dogs eaten between 2009 and 2011 underlines this – with 2010’s result being the noticeable outlier.

Stonie managed to end the eight-year reign of Joey Chestnut back in 2015 by eating 62 hot dogs - well below the 66.5 offered by Pinnacle. In 2020, the men’s Total Hot Dogs Eaten by the Winner market opened at 73.5 with a small leaning towards Under.

How to pick your wiener: Is there a value bet?

Chestnut has eaten more than 70 HDB for the last five years and broke his own records in three of those outings. Pinnacle offered odds for Over 73.5 last year and amazingly Chestnut achieved this with a staggering 76 HDB.

To watch Chestnut consume a record-breaking 76 HDB, check out this video of last year’s contest:

Over the years, genuine challengers to Chestnut’s competitive eating crown have been few and far between - Matt Stonie is the only man to come close (his success at Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest in 2015 is the only break in Chestnut’s current 13-year reign of dominance).

Over the years, genuine challengers to Chestnut’s competitive eating crown have been few and far between - Matt Stonie is the only man to come close (Stonie became the youngest but also the top-ranked competitive eater in MLE).

Stonie narrowly edging out Chestnut clearly lit a fire in the 14x champion. Chestnut reclaimed his throne the very next year and broke the 70 HDB barrier for the very first time – a feat he had been on the cusp of for several years.

While Stonie has been the strongest competition to defeat the reigning champion in recent years, he hasn’t made an appearance at Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest since 2019. He is still ranked fifth in the world, though, and 2022 could see his return.

Geoffrey Esper is still the chief competition. The second-best eater in the world beat Chestnut in a doughnut-eating contest in 2019 (Esper ate 235 in six minutes while Chestnut could “only” manage 200) – but only managed 50 HDB in 2021.

•        How to make predictions with no data

The problem for anyone looking to challenge Chestnut is that he’s been so consistent in recent years and has really set the bar high in terms of the record.

One way to keep ahead of the market is to keep an eye on the contestant’s form in other competitions and check their social media accounts for updates. A good example of this is 2017 when Joey Chestnut posted a video online of his preparations (where he put away an impressive 77 hot dogs). That resulted in a fairly hefty line move on the Total market. Pinnacle had the mark set at 68.5 prior to the video being uploaded and it had moved to 72.5 a day after. 

It’s not just about the men: Women’s hot dog eating contest

Women have competed in Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest since 2011 - Sonya Thomas was the first-ever winner of the women’s competition and held the record of 45 HDB from 2012 until 2020.

Thomas won the first three instalments of the women’s event before Miki Sudo triumphed with a total of 34 HDB in 2014. Sudo has consistently improved and broke the women’s world record in 2020 with 48.5 HDB’s. She missed last year’s event due to pregnancy and will be looking to reclaim her title in 2022.

In terms of the outright betting for the women's competition, there’s a clear market favourite with Miki Sudo currently 1.003* to win with the field at 11.000*. 

Will we see a Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest record?

In competitive eating circles, Joey Chestnut is a superstar. The 6ft, 230-pound California native has dominated Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest for over a decade.

Despite Stonie’s win in 2015, many believe the biggest rivalry in competitive eating is still considered to be Joey Chestnut and Takeru Kobayashi. Unfortunately, fans haven’t got to see many contests featuring both as contractual issues and competition controversy means Kobayashi hasn’t competed at the July 4 event since 2010.

There might be challengers but Chestnut is clearly the man to beat. It will be incredibly difficult for anyone to take the title away from him come July 4. Anyone looking for slightly longer odds might want to look at the chances of Chestnut beating his own record of 76 HDB.

Can “Jaws” do the unthinkable and beat his record again? Is it humanly possible to eat close to 80 hot dogs in 10 minutes? If anyone can do it, it’ll likely be Joey “Jaws” Chestnut! All will become clear on July 4.

Prepare the mustard and ketchup before you sign up at Pinnacle for tasty Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest odds.