The North London Derby is our highlight fixture in the Premier League this weekend, as Tottenham host Arsenal in an intriguing battle in the race for a top four finish. Looking for value in the Tottenham vs. Arsenal odds? Read on to inform your Tottenham vs. Arsenal prediction.
A close look at the Tottenham vs. Arsenal odds
With home advantage, the 1X2 odds make Tottenham favourites at 2.110*, to beat Arsenal. The implied probability of a win for Mauricio Pochettino’s side is around 45%.*
The Over/Under is set at 2.5 and 3 which means the betting market is expecting goals with Over 2.5 and 3 Goals currently priced at 1.840*, and this could be where the value sits in what is often an exciting derby.
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Follow PinnacleDate: Saturday, March 2
Time: 12:30 UTC kick-off
Venue: Wembley Stadium
Tottenham vs. Arsenal predicted line-ups
Tottenham predicted line-up
(3-4-3) Lloris; Trippier, Alderweireld, Sanchez, Vertonghen; Wink, Eriksen; Sissoko, Lamela, Son; Kane.
Tottenham team news
Ben Davies and Dele Alli will miss out playing for Tottenham this game through injury, as neither player has made a full recovery.
Arsenal predicted lineup
(4-2-3-1) Leno; Lichtsteiner, Monreal, Koscielny, Sokratis, Kolasinac; Torreira, Xhaka; Iwobi, Mkhitaryan, Aubameyang.
Arsenal team news
Hector Bellerin, Rob Holding, and Danny Welbeck remain long term absentees. Stephan Lichtsteiner is a doubt but is expected to be fit to start.
Tottenham vs. Arsenal expected goals stats
• Tottenham expected goals per game: 1.74
• Tottenham expected goals against per game: 1.18
• Tottenham expected points per game: 1.72
• Arsenal expected goals per game: 1.67
• Arsenal expected goals against per game: 1.33
• Arsenal expected points per game: 1.62
Inform your Tottenham vs. Arsenal prediction
The Premier League season is heading towards the business end, with both the title race and the battle for a top four finish being full of interest for bettors. Tottenham will head into the fixture with Arsenal in poor form domestically after suffering back-to-back defeats to Burnley and Chelsea.
Spurs will need to respond, but they looked a tired, uninspired side in those two fixtures - and the Gunners will be getting Mauricio Pochettino’s side at the right time. Tottenham failed to land a single shot on target in a Premier League game for the first time since December 2013 against Chelsea.
The form in this fixture sits with Spurs, who have won five of the last seven home Premier League meetings against Arsenal, with the Gunners winning just one of the last 16 – Spurs boss Mauricio Pochettino has never lost a home Premier League game against the Gunners.
Tottenham were performing at an unmaintainable rate, when looking at their expected goals statistics, so it should not be a surprise that their form has regressed of late. Pochettino’s side have been poor in their last two league matches against Burnley and Chelsea, and if they perform in a similar fashion against Arsenal, they will likely be beaten.
"The two sides have scored 115 goals between them this season in 28 matches, whilst conceding 64 which potentially outlines a high scoring match"
Arsenal continued their recent good form with a resounding 5-1 win over Bournemouth at the Emirates in midweek and prior to that dispatched of Southampton with relative ease. The Gunners sit in fourth spot in the Premier League while Spurs are one place ahead in third which means there is plenty on the line when these two sides meet this weekend.
According to expected goals, the Gunners have been the fifth best team in the league, with a poor process for a ‘top six’ team, but look to be coming into form when it matters. Unai Emery’s side have averaged 1.67 xGF and conceded an average of 1.33 xGA, which highlights that the Gunners’ defensive issues still haven’t been resolved, and this potentially points to a high-scoring game at Wembley on Saturday.
A positive result against Tottenham would consolidate the Gunners' place in the top four as they head into the final stretch of the premier league season, so bettors should expect an Arsenal side that is fully-focused and well-drilled to gain a positive result.
Tottenham vs. Arsenal betting: Where is the value?
The evident value here when analysing the odds is to look for goals. The last Premier League meeting between the two sides was all action and Tottenham vs. Arsenal is always an exciting fixture. The two sides have scored 115 goals between them this season in 28 matches, whilst conceding 64 which potentially outlines a high scoring match.
Despite their recent poor form domestically, it is Spurs who are favourites in the 1X2 betting market at odds of 2.110* to record a victory over their North London rivals. They have won five of their last seven home Premier League games against Arsenal and these odds seem priced into recent form rather than overall quality, so a 1X2 bet on Tottenham is potentially a value bet.
For bettors looking to alternative markets, Arsenal fixtures this season have seen both teams’ score in 75% of matches (both teams managed to score in 21 out of 28 matches played this season). The average percentage of games in which both teams score in the Premier League is 53% and with the attacking talent on display at both ends, combined with the defensive vulnerabilities, there is a high probability that both sides will find the net at some stage.
Throughout the Premier League season, you can find value in corners betting, betting on cards or use an expected goals model to inform your betting.