Premier League betting: 2023/24 Premier League expected points preview

Will Manchester City become the first club to win the English top flight title for a fourth year in a row? Can Liverpool recover from their worst campaign under Jürgen Klopp? How will returning to the Champions League affect the domestic form of Arsenal, Manchester United, and Newcastle? Can Aston Villa and Brighton juggle European football with their league concerns?

Will Chelsea and Tottenham prosper without continental competition, and which teams will be at greatest threat of relegation?

As ever, transfer spending may help determine the answers to many of these questions. We can also use freely available expected goal (xG) data from last season to assist us with our preseason betting choices.

2022/23 Premier League review 

Before we look at 2023/24, let’s see how accurate Pinnacle’s projected points were ahead of the 2022/23 season.

Compared with the year before, there were some new extremes. No team under- or overachieved by more than 15.5 points in 2021/22, yet three teams exceeded that mark at each end last term.

Team	Pinnacle 2022/23 Projected Points	2022/23 Points	Difference
Arsenal	64.5	84	19.5
Brentford	40.5	59	18.5
Fulham	35.5	52	16.5
Newcastle	55.5	71	15.5
Brighton and Hove Albion	48.5	62	13.5
Aston Villa	48.5	61	12.5
Manchester United	65.5	75	9.5
Bournemouth	32.5	39	6.5
Nottingham Forest	33.5	38	4.5
Manchester City	89.5	89	-0.5
Crystal Palace	46.5	45	-1.5
Wolverhampton	44.5	41	-3.5
Everton	44.5	36	-8.5
Tottenham Hotspur	69.5	60	-9.5
Leeds United	41.5	31	-10.5
West Ham United	51.5	40	-11.5
Southampton	39.5	25	-14.5
Leicester City	51.5	34	-17.5
Liverpool	85.5	67	-18.5
Chelsea	71.5	44	-27.5

Pinnacle believed that Arsenal were likely to finish sixth, but they were able to maintain a title challenge for the majority of the campaign. Meanwhile, Brentford have now overachieved by a total of 28 points across their two seasons in the Premier League, and Fulham were comfortably the most successful of what were the newly promoted clubs.

At the wrong end of the above table, both Chelsea and Liverpool went from predicted top three finishes to missing out on Champions League qualification. Notice too that the bottom six contains the three relegated sides, all of whom did significantly worse than anticipated.

Our three pre-season selections for 2021/22 all proved profitable, but that was not the case for our 2022/23 predictions.

A much nearer miss came with Crystal Palace.

By far the most inaccurate choice was for Fulham to get under 35.5 points, as they accumulated 52. However, the expected points from their performances were worth 33, so the logic behind the selection was at least sound.

A much nearer miss came with Crystal Palace, who we forecast to get over 46.5 points. They recorded 45, with the 11-game winless run (which led to the dismissal of Patrick Vieira) ruining our bet.

However, we were correct to forecast that Wolves would get under 44.5 points, as they fell 3.5 shy of that target. The men from Molineux are not expected to improve in 2023/24 either.

2023/24 Premier League table predictions: What do the odds suggest?

The below is Pinnacle’s predicted Premier League table for 2023/24, with the points totals from last season included to illustrate whether teams are expected to improve or get worse.

Team	Pinnacle 2023/24 Projected Points	2022/23 Points	Difference
Manchester City	86.5	89	-2.5
Arsenal	76.5	84	-7.5
Liverpool	75.5	67	8.5
Manchester United	72.5	75	-2.5
Newcastle	67.5	71	-3.5
Chelsea	67.5	44	23.5
Tottenham Hotspur	61.5	60	1.5
Aston Villa	58.5	61	-2.5
Brighton and Hove Albion	56.5	62	-5.5
Brentford	46.5	59	-12.5
West Ham United	46.5	40	6.5
Crystal Palace	42.5	45	-2.5
Burnley	40.5	N/A	N/A
Fulham	40.5	52	-11.5
Wolverhampton	39.5	41	-1.5
Everton	39.5	36	3.5
Bournemouth	38.5	39	-0.5
Nottingham Forest	37.5	38	-0.5
Sheffield United	30.5	N/A	N/A
Luton Town	29.5	N/A	N/A

With 10 teams not expected to shift by more than a few points, there are three who Pinnacle anticipate earning at least six more points, and the same number who will recede by the same margin.

The clear stand out is Chelsea, predicted to improve by 23.5 points. It is a reasonable assumption based on club history and their appointment of a proven Premier League manager in Mauricio Pochettino, though it will be fascinating to see how he deploys their enormous squad.

Liverpool (+8.5) and West Ham (+6.5) are the other teams viewed as likely to make significant improvement. Both undoubtedly underachieved in the league last season, so a lot will rest upon the performance of the Reds’ reshaped midfield and how the Hammers replace Declan Rice.

Arsenal are predicted to be further back than last season.

The England international’s new club is among those facing an expected decline compared to their 2022/23 record. While still pitched to finish second, Arsenal are predicted to be further back than they were last term.

The duo of Fulham (-11.5) and Brentford (-12.5) are forecast to markedly fall away too. With Chelsea’s expected resurgence, Pinnacle is anticipating plenty of change in West London in 2023/24.

We can bolster our predictions by reviewing the expected goal numbers from last season. The statistics may reveal whether the suggested points totals reflect the performances teams delivered in 2022/23.

Premier League 2022/23 expected points vs. 2023/24 projections

Expected points (xPts) can be calculated using a variety of methods. Understat utilise their expected goal data to produce xPts, but their numbers do not tally with reality. For example, Leicester beat West Ham 2-1 on the final day of last season, with the expected points given as 2.15 vs. 0.64. However, that leaves 0.21 of the available three points unaccounted for.

To achieve a more realistic outcome, with teams awarded zero, one, or three points as appropriate, it may be better to award a victory if either side leads the xG total by at least 0.4. Using this system ensures you see a realistic number of draws, which is vital in a three-outcome sport.

The below table shows Pinnacle’s expected points for 2023/24 compared to the xPts for last season using the latter method.

Team	Pinnacle 2023/24 Projected Points	2022/23 Expected Points	Difference
Manchester City	86.5	88	-1.5
Arsenal	76.5	78	-1.5
Liverpool	75.5	75	0.5
Manchester United	72.5	75	-2.5
Newcastle	67.5	75	-7.5
Chelsea	67.5	58	9.5
Tottenham Hotspur	61.5	72	-10.5
Aston Villa	58.5	58	0.5
Brighton and Hove Albion	56.5	81	-24.5
Brentford	46.5	60	-13.5
West Ham United	46.5	46	0.5
Crystal Palace	42.5	42	0.5
Burnley	40.5	N/A	N/A
Fulham	40.5	33	7.5
Everton	39.5	33	6.5
Wolverhampton	39.5	26	13.5
Bournemouth	38.5	22	16.5
Nottingham Forest	37.5	29	8.5
Sheffield United	30.5	N/A	N/A
Luton Town	29.5	N/A	N/A

There is a touch more correlation between the xPts for this season and the last than there was for the former metric and the actual points from 2022/23, but nothing significant.

If we use the same margin of six points between the two figures as we deployed above, there are more outliers.

Chelsea are the only side who meet this arbitrary qualification in both tables, though their xPts were far closer to Pinnacle’s forecast than what they achieved in reality. Scoring 38 goals against 53.7 xG ensured they left a lot of points on the table.

Both Bournemouth (+16.5) and Wolverhampton (+13.5) have a larger gap between their 2022/23 xPts and what Pinnacle expects from them this season than the Blues (+9.5) though. If matches were decided by expected goals, both sides would have been relegated to the Championship, so an ‘Under’ bet may be appropriate in the Season Points markets.

The teams with the widest negative margin between their previous season's xPts and Pinnacle’s forecast for 2023/24 are Brighton (-24.5), Brentford (-13.5), Tottenham (-10.5), and Newcastle (-7.5). Transfers and managerial changes ensure that teams are never exactly the same from one campaign to the next, but there may be some value in backing these teams to be better than predicted.

Outright Premier League betting: Who will win the Premier League title?

If you want to bet on the title race, you may as well flip a coin. It needs to say ‘Manchester City’ on one side and ‘everybody else’ on the other.

The three-time defending champions are priced at 1.740* (-135) to finish first once again, which equates to a 49.9 per cent probability when we factor in the other odds.

Manchester City are still heavy favourites.

2022/23 runners-up Arsenal are next in line at 5.970* (+497) (14.6 per cent chance), followed by Liverpool (8.260* (+726), 10.5 per cent). Both sides have bought well this summer, but can they stop the Manchester City juggernaut, a club who have earned an average of 91 points per season over the last six years? It’s impossible to make that case at this point.

The top four race should be more interesting, as Newcastle’s emergence means there are seven teams realistically in the hunt. Manchester City (1.042*) are nailed on, with Arsenal (1.502*) and Liverpool (1.529*) expected to join them.

Fifth favourites Chelsea (2.240*) may be the value choice to overtake Manchester United (1.746*). While the Blues’ squad is unbalanced, they have invested a lot of money into it and have appointed a top manager to guide it.

The former Tottenham boss has proven he can steer a young team into the Champions League and eventually all the way to the final. Without European football as a distraction in 2023/24, Pochettino will have ample time to impart his wisdom on the training pitch.

Making Premier League season predictions

Unlike the period ahead of 2022/23, Pinnacle does not expect all three promoted sides to head back down. Only six from the 15 in the last five campaigns have been demoted at the first time of asking, and Burnley are predicted to beat the drop this term.

As winners of the Championship, recent history is on their side. Only twice in the last nine years have second-tier title winners then been immediately relegated, and it was Norwich City on both occasions. Disregard the Canaries and the last four have bettered the 40.5 points - which represents Burnley’s line, so an Over bet at 1.869* (-115) looks to be a good option.

Another side looking capable of exceeding expectations are Brentford. The Bees’ line is set at 46.5, when they got 46 in their first campaign following promotion and raised that to 59 last term. Even more encouragingly, their xPts in those seasons were 56 and 60 respectively, so although Ivan Toney will be missed while he serves his ban, Brentford appear a decent selection at 1.869* (-115) to get over 46.5 points.

It will take teams to underachieve for Burnley and Brentford to beat the odds, and there are still concerns about Everton. There is much uncertainty surrounding the club, and their first two summer signings were 38-year-old Ashley Young and Arnaut Danjuma, a player who rejected them as recently as January.

They got 36 points and 33 xPts last season, while manager Sean Dyche has taken just 84 points from his 86 Premier League games across the previous three campaigns. Everton’s odds of 1.990* (-101) to get under 39.5 points look too good to ignore.

Feel ready to make your plays? Check out Pinnacle’s unrivalled Premier League odds.