Premier League relegation betting: Expert analysis

Premier League relegation odds: Finding value

Mark Taylor’s recent analysis of cyclical performance in the NFL highlighted how, in contrast to elite level American Football, predicting where certain teams will finish at the end of the season in the Premier League is more straightforward than most other sports.

As the gap between elite clubs and those who struggle in the Premier League grows, it becomes easier for bettors to predict which teams are genuine title contenders and which teams could be relegated - this means there could be plenty of value on offer in the Premier League Winner odds as well as the Premier League relegation odds.

Huddersfield Town

The current favourite in Pinnacle’s Premier League relegation betting is Huddersfield Town - priced at 1.645* to only last one season in the top division of English soccer. The play-off winners will need to bolster their squad and improve right across the pitch if they are to compete in the Premier League next season.

Twenty-two of Huddersfield's 25 wins last season came from a single goal margin.

One positive for David Wagner’s side is that the Championship play-off winners have actually performed better than the side winning the Championship in the following season’s average league position over the last 10 years - Championship winners have an average finishing position of 16.5 while the play-off winners have averaged 15.8.

The Terriers are the first team to win promotion to the Premier League with a negative goal difference (-2) and managed to win the play-offs without actually winning a game. Additionally, 22 of their 25 wins last season came from a single goal margin (a Championship record) and given they will have to shut out some of the best strikers in the world next season they will have to score more than the 1.22 goals per game they averaged last season.

Brighton and Hove Albion

Over the course of last season, Brighton and Hove Albion found themselves in a battle with Newcastle United to be crowned Championship winners before losing out on the final day of the season. This year, The Seagulls, their manager (Chris Hughton) and Chairman (Tony Bloom, owner of a sports betting hedge fund) are in for a different type of challenge.

Brighton find themselves high on the list of potential candidates in the Premier League relegation betting due to how often newly promoted teams are relegated in their first season in the top flight. However, bettors may want to note that only two sides have ever been relegated the season after winning 90+ points in the Championship (Burnley in 2013/14 and Sunderland 2004/05).

One of the major sources of success for Chris Hughton’s side last season was how often they converted a lead into a win (they scored the first goal in 27 of their 46 matches and won 25 of those). Bettors should be aware that these kinds of stats are unlikely to repeat themselves in the top flight in English soccer.

Burnley

After winning the Championship in 2015/16, both bookmakers and bettors assumed Burnley would struggle in the Premier League - they were priced at 2.09 to score Under 32.5 points. Somewhat surprisingly, Sean Dyche led The Clarets to a 40-point haul and secured Premier League safety with a few games to spare.

Burnley scored the fewest goals of any side not to be relegated from the Premier League last season.

On the two previous occasions Burnley have played in the Premier League they have been relegated within one season (2009/10 and 2014/15) so their short odds in the Premier League relegation betting merely reflect the fact that they have been unable to cement their position in the top flight.

Burnley’s survival last season was built on performances at Turf Moor - they finished 9^th in the home form rankings and evidently benefitted from home field advantage. Sean Dyche’s defensive approach was also key to their success.

In addition to conceding the fewest goals of any side in the bottom half of the table, Burnley scored the fewest goals of any side not to be relegated, attempted the third fewest shots per game (10.3) and the least amount of dribbles per game (4.7) in the league.

Watford

Watford head into the new Premier League season with a new manager - Marco Silva. The Portuguese coach raised his profile at Hull City (despite failing to keep them safe from relegation) and becomes the ninth manager to walk through the door at Vicarage Road in the last six years.

Watford lost seven of their last eight games in the Premier League last season.

The fact that the eight managers before him have averaged just 34 games in charge points to some instability at Marco Silva’s new club. Watford’s odds of 2.750* to be relegated highlight that they have come close to finishing in the bottom three in each of the two seasons since they returned to the Premier League - they have also only covered the handicap spread 42.90% of the time during that period.

Discipline cost Watford dearly last season - they committed the most fouls per game in the league (13.6) and received the most yellow cards (84) and most red cards (5). The Hornets were virtually safe after 30 games last season but lost seven of the last eight and if that form continues, their Premier League relegation odds will provide great value.

Newcastle United

As the betting suggests, Newcastle United appear to be the least likely to be relegated of the newly promoted sides. They may have only won the Championship thanks to a last minute equaliser in a game they weren’t even playing in, but Newcastle has invaluable Premier League experience and greater financial power than most of their rivals. 

George Taylor has already analysed why Newcastle could be the surprise package in the Premier League next season in great detail. He cites how a clinical strike force, a defence heading into their prime and a proven elite level manager means there could be value betting on Newcastle in the handicap market next season. 

Premier League relegation betting: What else to consider

The odds suggest that the teams mentioned above, along with Swansea (3.20*) and Crystal Palace (5.25*) will struggle in the Premier League next season. In addition to analysing their performance last season, there are several other factors that could inform your betting.

Looking at the first six games of the season for each side could prove worthwhile.

A good start could breed confidence into these sides, just as a bad start could knock the wind out of their sails. Given how important the first six games of the season are, looking at the opening set of fixtures for each side could prove worthwhile.

Bettors should also look at how important individual players are to these teams and make adjustments when those players struggle for form or get sidelined through injury.

Whether or not you can find value in the Premier League relegation odds, alternative markets such as cards betting or betting on corners could provide a profit throughout the season.