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Feb 4, 2017
Feb 4, 2017

Part 4: Premier League predictions - Pinnacle vs. Mark Lawrenson

The latest results from the Bookmaker vs. Soccer Pundit challenge

Will Pinnacle be able to catch Mark Lawrenson?

Part 4: Premier League predictions - Pinnacle vs. Mark Lawrenson
Since the start of the 2016/17 Premier League season, we have analysed the predictions of soccer pundit Mark Lawrenson and compared them to Pinnacle’s predictions. Exactly 200 predictions have been made so far, so who is ahead in the Bookmaker vs. Soccer Pundit challenge? Read on to find out.

As explained in part one of the challenge, Mark Lawrenson submits predictions to the BBC website for every round of Premier League fixtures. Using the odds Pinnacle offers for Handicap betting on the Premier League, we have been able to determine the bookmaker’s predictions. 

It is important to note that the selections made by both Pinnacle and Mark Lawrenson are not betting predictions. However, by placing a hypothetical €10 bet on each selection, we can analyse these predictions from a betting perspective.

Pinnacle currently sits on a score of 79/150 predictions and is €99.86 down in terms of hypothetical profit/loss. Lawrenson has steadily increased his lead and with a score of 83/150 predictions, he is €234.96 in profit. Is there enough time for the bookmaker to catch up? The results from the last five weeks are below: 

Week 16

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Pinnacle got off to an ideal start in week 16. Eight correct predictions from the ten fixtures in the Premier League resulted in a €34.60 profit for the bookmaker with the €10 hypothetical bet applied. Lawrenson’s losses were limited to €8.90 but it was certainly the start Pinnacle needed.

Week 17

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The bookmaker’s good start continued into week 17. Another eight correct selections would have returned €58.59 in terms of betting predictions. The BBC talking head would have ended up down €5.82 after only getting five of his ten predictions predictions right. 

Week 18

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There was a major reverse in fortunes in week 18 of the Bookmaker vs. Soccer Pundit challenge. Pinnacle could only manage five correct predictions in comparison to Lawrenson’s eight but it was the odds of the different selections that mattered. 

A West Ham win at Swansea (3.11), Watford vs. Crystal Palace draw (3.26) and Tottenham Hotspur win at Southampton (2.59) would have produced €56.24 profit for Mark Lawrenson. The bookmaker, however, couldn't continue the success of the two previous weeks and ended up with a €33.36 loss.

Week 19

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Although Pinnacle managed to get back on track with seven correct selections and a €23.81 return in terms of betting predictions, the BBC pundit pulled further ahead in week 19. Despite registering one less correct prediction, a W.B.A win at Southampton (at odds of 6.05) would have given Lawrenson a €49.21 profit with a €10 bet on each selection.

Week 20

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Throughout the Bookmaker vs. Soccer Pundit challenge, Lawrenson’s ability to pick a draw at high odds has been the key to his success. However, in week 20, it was Pinnacle’s selection of a draw in the Middlesbrough vs. Leicester game that was the difference between the two.

Although both Pinnacle and Lawrenson managed to get six of their ten predictions right, it was the draw (at closing odds of 3.060) instead of Tottenham’s win over Chelsea (closing odds of 2.710) that proved crucial. The bookmaker would have been €21.35 up for the week, compared to Lawreson’s €17.85 profit.

A good few weeks for Pinnacle means the score in terms of correct predictions now stands at 113/200 for the bookmaker and 114/200 for the pundit. Despite being closely matched by their number of correct selections, Mark Lawrenson still has a considerable lead when analysing betting predictions.

In part 4 of the challenge, Pinnacle amassed €104.99 profit, which takes its running total to +€5.13. Lawrenson continued his impressive run and after €108.58 profit in part 4, he is now up €343.54.

As of yet, the BBC pundit’s selections don’t appear to be influenced by luck - of course, time is still needed to give any credibility to his predictions. Will betting activity and wisdown of the crowd help Pinnacle catch up before the season is out? We’ll know more in part 5 of this challenge - where we’ll have another five weeks of results to analyse.

Got your own Premier League predictions? Get the best odds on soccer betting at Pinnacle.

See the latest odds here
Benjamin studied English with Creative Writing (BA) before pursuing a career that combined his love of sport and fascination with betting. An avid fan of numerous sports, his writing now covers anything from in-depth major sporting event previews, to examining betting trends and techniques.

By Benjamin Cronin

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