Ligue 1 2021/22: Who are the favourites?
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Team |
Odds |
2020/21 position |
|
PSG |
2nd |
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|
Lyon |
4th |
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|
Lille |
1st |
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|
Monaco |
3rd |
|
|
Marseille |
5th |
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|
Rennes |
6th |
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|
Nice |
9th |
2021/22 outright Ligue 1 betting: Can Lille defend their title?
Lille were the shock champions of Ligue 1 last season and can be backed at odds of 17.00* to retain their crown. They only lost three matches on route to an 83 point tally and beat off PSG by a margin of just one point! On paper, the Lille squad was certainly worse than PSG's squad, Monaco and arguably only equal to the likes of Lyon and Marseille. Without doubt, the key to their success was a watertight defence which conceded just 23 goals all season. It was no fluke either with their expected goals against 25.68, which is an incredible achievement, and one that might be hard to replicate this term. But in short, their defence was of an elite level.
The same backline is set to be used again. Veteran Jose Fonte will turn 38 in December and was an absolute rock last season. But can he keep up that level for another year? Sven Botman and Zeki Celik should continue to develop but one big problem is the departure of goalkeeper Mike Maignan. The ex-PSG man has been sold to AC Milan for nearly £12m and at the time of writing Lille have yet to replace him. Lille pocketed nearly £20m from Leicester City for midfielder Boubakary Soumare. The central area does look like the weakest point of this team, currently relying on Benjamin Andre and then perhaps Xeka or ex-Benfica wonderkid Renato Sanches to come good, which could be the defending champions weak point.
Lille’s top scorer last season was Turkish target man Burak Yilmaz who netted 16 goals in just 23 starts. He is another ageing veteran though and the question must be raised whether he can be as effective again? The attacking talent of Jonathan Bamba, Jonathan Ikone and Canadian international Jonathan David is unquestionable. That trio should combine for several goals and assists this season again, although Lille haven’t ruled out selling any of those players for high fees. Perhaps the biggest concern for all Lille supporters is the departure of manager Christophe Galtier who masterminded their title success. He has moved to a new challenge at Nice and replacing him is Jocelyn Gourvennec. The ex-Bordeaux manager has never finished higher than 6th placed in Ligue 1 with any club and hasn’t been in management for a full two years. It would take a special effort for Lille to defend their crown and it is logical to think they will slip down to around 3-5th place.
PSG strong favourites
PSG endured a nightmare on the field last season. They sacked Thomas Tuchel in late December only to then see him go on and win the Champions League with Chelsea! It is the top European trophy that PSG covert the most, but domestically they have a league title to win back. If you fancy them to do it then you can back them at short 1.174* odds and clear favourites. Several things went wrong for PSG last year, not least player availability.
All eyes will be on Kylian M’bappe as he enters the last year of his contract.
Not a single player started more than 29 league matches for the capital club. Kylian M’bappe was restricted to just 23 starts and Neymar wasn’t even in the match squad for more than half their games! PSG are known for rotation, with the Champions League always taking priority but you have to naturally think that availability for key men will improve this season. PSG look to have signed well so far this summer. Moroccan right back Achraf Hakimi has been the costliest addition, moving from Inter Milan for nearly £55m. There have been two free contract signings in Sergio Ramos and Gianluigi Donnarumma which have arguably attracted more interest. Ramos might be fairly old but brings with him a wealth of experience and a winner’s mentality which could be crucial to this PSG side.
It is expected that Keylor Navas will start the season as first choice goalkeeper, but Donnarumma is clearly the long term solution at PSG and is a superb addition. All eyes will be on Kylian M’bappe as he enters the last year of his contract. Will he re-sign, be transferred out this summer or simply leave on a free in June 2022? It is up to manager Mauricio Pochettino to get the most out of this super talented squad. The Argentine, who has never won a league title before as a manager will be expected, as a bare minimum, to finish top of Ligue 1 again. It is hard to see beyond them becoming champions due to their star quality and incredible depth that they have in their squad.
Monaco dark horses
Perhaps Monaco will be best placed to challenge PSG for the title. Nico Kovac’s first season in charge of the club was a tale of two halves. They lost six of their first fifteen games but only two of their last twenty three! From Round #16 onwards, the principality side averaged a total of 2.39 points per game which over the course of a whole season would equate to over 90 points. That is title winning form. Kovacs has regularly kept things quite simple at Monaco with a 4-4-2 system, one of his favourites to use. The goals and assists of Wissam Ben Yedder alongside Kevin Volland should propel this team towards one of the highest scoring in Ligue 1. Monaco have some very exciting younger players with midfielder Aurelien Tchouameni very hot property.
Perhaps Monaco will be best placed to challenge PSG for the title.They might struggle to keep hold of him given his links to some of Europe's biggest clubs but if they can keep him this season it will certainly improve their chances of challenging PSG for the title. Fellow midfielder Youssouf Fofana is another to watch out for, whilst in central defence 20-year-old Benoit Badiashile should progress even further this season as a player. Monaco have only signed two new players at the time of writing, left winger Ismail Jacobs from German side Koln and Alexander Nubel, a goalkeeper on loan from Bayern Munich. The goalkeeping situation looks strong with either him or Benjamin Lecomte in competition to wear the gloves. Monaco’s expected goals against total of 33.95 last season was actually quite good. They conceded 42 goals though, so were unlucky and underachieved in that department. Monaco look a well-balanced side and could push PSG, if they can keep dropped points to a minimum. Their odds of 13.190* to win Ligue 1 are interestingly higher than both Lille or Lyon, yet they look better equipped to take on the challenge.
Can a new manager revive Lyon’s fortunes?
Lyon are joint second favourites to win Ligue 1 at odds of 11.160, but first we must address the loss of Memphis Depay to Barcelona. Memphis scored 20 goals and supplied 12 assists last season. His overall record in Ligue 1 was simply phenomenal with 63 goals and 45 assists from 139 appearances. Lyon have basically lost an irreplaceable player, and at the time of writing have yet to add anyone new in the attacking areas so a lot will depend on who they eventually recruit to replace the Dutch striker.
Lyon have basically lost an irreplaceable player.
A lot will depend on who they recruit as a replacement. At least, Lyon have Karl Toko Ekambi and Tino Kadewere on the books and Moussa Dembele could yet stay after returning from a loan spell at Atletico Madrid. Last season, the club finished in fourth place, and blew their chances of making the Champions League places, after losing at home to Nice on the final day of the season. Former manager Rudy Garcia didn’t renew his contract and Lyon have hired Dutch head coach Peter Bosz to take charge. This is a risky hire because despite coming with a good reputation, Bosz has never actually won a major trophy as a manager. There are always some great youngsters coming through at Lyon and their midfield spearheaded by Brazilian Lucas Paqueta looks particularly tasty. However, with doubts over Houssem Aouar leaving the club and a manager who has a history of falling short, it might be that finishing third is the best they can hope for.
Marseille explosion
There is genuine excitement around Marseille for the first time in several years with the hire of manager Jorge Sampaoli, towards the end of last season. What looks like a very smart acquisition, promises to bring an attacking brand of football not seen at the Stade Velodrome since the days of Marcelo Bielsa. Of all the big teams it is Marseille who have chopped and changed the most so far in the transfer window. There have been several departures, including Florian Thauvin to Mexican side Tigres. However, with new signings such as £20m Gerson from Brazilian side Flamengo and the addition of two Arsenal loanees Matteo Guendouzi and William Saliba, perhaps the future is bright.
There is genuine excitement around Marseille for the first time in several years.
Marseille have also reinforced their attack by adding great prospect Konrad de la Fuente, an American winger from Barcelona. With the promise of goals from Arkadiusz Milik and the experience of Dimitri Payet pulling the strings, this might become a dangerous team which could go far. However, with Sampaoli in charge, there is a sense that some matches could literally be boom or bust. Marseille are priced at 21.30* to win the league and might attract those who feel their big changes can make an immediate impact.
It will be interesting to see how Christophe Galtier gets on at his new club Nice, but the general feeling is that he’s at the start of an era there and will certainly have some teething problems. Rennes are always going to threaten for the European positions, but their tag of a selling club can never be shaken off as they have a knack of losing top talent at inopportune times. Down at the bottom of the table newly promoted Troyes and Clermont will be two of the favourites to go straight back down. But both have momentum and certainly in the case of Troyes won’t lack for ambition. It might be that the likes of Brest, Angers, Lorient that need to look over their shoulders with worry of genuine relegation threat.
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