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Finding a niche market in betting can often lead to value. This can be anything from specialist knowledge of handball betting to extensive experience in betting on Japanese baseball. Providing you know more than the bookmaker, there is money to be made.  &lt;Bet on soccer at Pinnacle&gt; They also make for interesting and potentially profitable bets, as they can be a little more reliable

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Poisson Distribution is a mathematical concept for translating mean averages into a probability for variable outcomes across a distribution. For example, if we know Manchester City average 1.7 goals per game, so by putting the Poisson Distribution formula tells us that this average equates to Manchester City&nbsp;scoring 0 goals 18.3% of the time, 1 goal 31% of the time, 2 goals 26.4% of the time and 3 goals 15% of the time.

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What is Expected Value?The amount a player can expect to win or lose if they were to place a bet on the same odds many times over, calculated through a simple equation multiplying your probability of winning with the amount you could win per bet, and subtracting the probability of losing multiplied by the amount lost per bet.A simple example of Expected Value (EV) put into practice -&nbsp;if you were

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<h3>Live Napoli vs. Juventus odds</h3>
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The 1X2 odds suggest that Napoli are the marginal favourites to win the game, with a 38% chance of securing a home win. The Over/Under is set at 2 and 2.5, with the current Pinnacle odds favouring a high-scoring contest with over odds priced at <a href="https://www.pinnacle.com/en/odds/match/soccer/italy/italy-serie-a?sport=True">1.892*</a>.
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Date – Sunday March 3
Time – 18:30 UTC
Venue – Stadio San Paolo
<h3>Napoli vs. Juventus predicted lineups</h3>
Napoli predicted lineup
4-4-2 – Meret (GK), Malcuit, Maksimovic, Koulibaly, Hysaj, Callejon, Allan, Ruiz, Zielinski, Insigne, Milik
Armin Younes and Raul Albiol, who have an Achilles and knee injury respectively, are the only players unavailable through injury for Napoli, leaving Ancelotti with almost his entire squad at his disposal. Lorenzo Insigne should return to the side to partner with Milik up front, with Dries Mertens dropping to the bench.
Napoli are well stocked in the full back areas, with Faouzi Goulham and Mario Rui both battling to displace Kevin Malcuit and Elseid Hysaj.
Juventus predicted lineup
4-3-1-2 – Szczesny, Cancelo, Bonucci, Chiellini, Sandro, Betancur, Pjanic, Matuidi, Dybala, Mandzukic, Ronaldo
Juan Cuadrado has a knee issue, and Sami Khedira is suffering from a heart issue, leaving them out of play. Mattia De Sciglio is battling Joao Cancelo for a starting spot at right back.
Federico Bernardeschi looks set to miss out after Dybala’s goal from the bench against Bologna looks to have earned him his starting place back, with Douglas Costa also looking to feature from the bench on Sunday.
<h3>Napoli vs. Juventus statistics</h3>
• Napoli’s last home win against Juventus was in September 2015
• Napoli have one win in their last five league fixtures against Juventus (P5, W1, D1, L3)
• Juventus have failed to score in this fixture twice in the last ten matches against Napoli.
• There have been under 2.5 goals in four of the last six meetings between the two teams
• Both teams have scored in three of the last six meetings in Serie A
• Juventus are unbeaten in Serie this season (P25, W22, D3)
• Juventus have the best attacking and defensive record in Serie A
• Napoli have the fourth best attacking record and the second best defensive record in Serie A
• Napoli have an xG per game of 1.81 and an xGA per game of 0.86
• Juventus have an xG per game of 1.92 and an xGA per game of 0.84
<h3>Inform your Napoli vs. Juventus predictions</h3>
Whilst Napoli know that realistically they wont be able to overturn a 13-point deficit and deny Juventus their eighth successive Serie A title, they will be desperate to become the first team to beat them this season and claim the bragging rights in this intense derby clash.
Mario Mandzukic’s brace in Turin in gameweek seven consigned Napoli to one of their three losses in Serie A so far this season, which in many other circumstances would not be too damaging to a team’s title hopes – except for this season.
To say Juventus have been unwavering and relentless in their pursuit of an eighth successive domestic title this year would be a more than accurate description of the Old Lady, as they charge towards achieving an invincible campaign for the first time since the 2011/12 season.
<blockquote>Juve know that Napoli away is their hardest fixture left in Serie A and if they can get through it without losing, the prospect of an unbeaten season will look increasingly likely.</blockquote>
Atalanta came closest to beating Juve this season, going 2-1 up at home before the ten men of Juventus equalised courtesy of Serie A’s top scorer Cristiano Ronaldo to rescue a draw.
Beating Juventus in any circumstance is motivation enough for Napoli whenever the two teams play each other, but the added incentive of denying Juve an unbeaten season will only serve to make Napoli even more determined to win at home on Sunday.
Napoli come into the game in good form, being unbeaten in their last seven matches, keeping five successive clean sheets in the process.
Arkadiusz Milik, enjoying his longest injury-free run in the Napoli side after successive long term knee injuries in the last two seasons, leads his team’s scoring charts with 14 goals and one assist in 22 Serie A games.
His strike partners Insigne and Mertens have contributed 16 goals and 12 assists between them to showcase the attacking potential and reputation Napoli have garnered over the last few seasons in Serie A.
Juventus meanwhile are currently far outperforming their xG, scoring five more than predicted, which is the second biggest differential in xG after Sampdoria who have scored eight more than forecasted.
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<li><a style="color: #f50;" id="articleLink" href="/betting-resources/en/soccer/expected-goals-explained/b8q2hgj7xmjrz58c">What is expected goals? Expected goals explained</a></li>
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Similar to Napoli’s attacking trio, Juventus’ offensive three of Ronaldo, Mandzukic, and Dybala have been directly involved in 48 of Juventus’ 53 goals so far, with Cristiano Ronaldo’s contribution living up to his pre-season hype and fanfare with 19 goals and eight assists in 25 games in Serie A.
Sunday’s encounter should be a compelling game, with Juventus’ invincibility being the main narrative of the match rather than possible title implications.
Juve know that Napoli away is their hardest fixture left in Serie A and if they can get through it without losing, the prospect of an unbeaten season will look increasingly likely.
Napoli are too far behind Juve to catch them, but also nine points clear of third-placed Inter, so with second place seemingly secured, Napoli know they can come into the game with all the pressure on the opposition in front of a raucous home support who will be clamouring for a win over the great northern rivals.
<h3>Napoli vs. Juventus: Where is the value?</h3>
Given Juventus’ determination to leave the San Paolo undefeated, and their defensive record this season, bettors may find value in the Over/Under market, with under 1.75 currently priced at <a href="https://www.pinnacle.com/en/odds/match/soccer/italy/italy-serie-a?sport=True">2.940*</a>.
What’s more, is that the Handicap market could also provide value given the circumstances mentioned above, with Juve -0.5 currently priced at <a href="https://www.pinnacle.com/en/odds/match/soccer/italy/italy-serie-a?sport=True">3.430*</a>.
Bettors may also opt to back Napoli to beat Juventus for the first time this season, with the Split Handicap option on Napoli -0.25 at <a href="https://www.pinnacle.com/en/odds/match/soccer/italy/italy-serie-a?sport=True">2.260*</a> looking potentially appealing.

Serie A odds

This week’s highlight fixture in Serie A sees Italy’s top two teams battle it out in this fierce derby, as Napoli take on Juventus. Will Napoli become the first team to beat Juventus this season? Can Juve increase the gap to 16 points at the top of Serie A? Read on to find out more.