How important are the first six matches of the soccer season?

What can we learn from the opening six matches?

For the purpose of this article, we are going to determine the ‘opening’ of the soccer season as its first six matches. While at first glance this may appear to be a small sample size, there is a historical basis for this. For instance, the winner of the Premier League has been outside the top four after the opening six games on just four occasions since 1995/96.

Furthermore, within their opening six matches a team will usually play three home and three away fixtures each. Those games also offer an insight as to whether any significant changes such as new players, a new manager, and even a new stadium will entail a positive or negative impact on their overall performance. The first six matches also give bettors the chance to assess how newly promoted teams will perform or whether they will maintain any notable pre-season form into the new campaign.

What can strong starts to a season teach us?

In the table below are the top six teams in the Premier League after six matches for each of the last five seasons, as well as their final finishing position:

Position after six matches	2016/17	2017/18	2018/19	2019/20	2020/21
1st	Manchester City 3rd	Manchester City 1st	Liverpool 2nd	Liverpool 1st	Everton 10th
2nd	Tottenham Hotspur 2nd	Manchester United 2nd	Manchester City 1st	Manchester City 2nd	Liverpool 3rd
3rd	Arsenal 5th	Chelsea 5th	Chelsea 3rd	Leicester City 5th	Aston Villa 11th
4th	Liverpool 4th	Tottenham Hotspur 3rd	Watford 11th	Arsenal 8th	Leicester City 5th
5th	Everton 7th	Liverpool 4th	Tottenham Hotspur 4th	West Ham United 16th	Tottenham Hotspur 7th
6th	Manchester United 6th	Watford 14th	Arsenal 5th	Bournemouth 18th	Leeds United 9th

The broad takeaway from this is teams who start a Premier League season well tend to maintain such standards throughout the campaign. Indeed, of the last 30 teams to occupy the top six positions after the opening six matches, 20 finished in the top six at the end of the season and 26 finished in the top half.

Ultimately, this is perhaps not that surprising. Consistency is key to any league title challenge and we would habitually expect the league’s strongest teams to be trading places near the top of the table for the remaining 32 matches.

However, this does not mean there aren’t instances of teams wildly overperforming or underperforming against expectations during their opening six matches. As highlighted in the table above, Watford were sixth after six matches in the 2017/18 season but ultimately came 14th, while West Ham and Bournemouth occupied fifth and sixth respectively after six games in 2019/20 only to both finish in the bottom five.

As previously mentioned, it is also a rare sight to witness Premier League winners residing outside the top four after the opening six games. The only teams to have won the competition after such a start are Manchester United in 2002/03 (who were 10th after six games), Manchester City in 2013/14 (seventh after six games), Chelsea in 2016/17 (eighth after six games), and Manchester City again in 2020/21 (13th after six games).

This indicates that when making predictions for league winners, an important component to consider is which teams you think are well-geared for a strong start. In the Premier League, teams dominating proceedings throughout are far from unprecedented – in 2014/15, Chelsea led the table for the entire season from Gameweek 3 onwards, while in 2017/18 Manchester City were not budged from first at any point after Gameweek 5.

What can poor starts to a season teach us?

Here is the equivalent table for the teams placed in the bottom six of the Premier League after six matches for each of the last five seasons, as well as their final finishing position:

Position after six matches	2016/17	2017/18	2018/19	2019/20	2020/21
15th	Bournemouth 9th	Swansea City 18th	Fulham 19th	Brighton and Hove Albion 15th	Manchester United 2nd
16th	Middlesbrough 19th	Stoke City 19th	Burnley 15th	Norwich City 20th	Brighton and Hove Albion 16th
17th	Swansea City 15th	Leicester City 9th	West Ham United 10th	Newcastle United 13th	West Bromwich Albion 19th
18th	West Ham United 11th	West Ham United 13th	Newcastle United 13th	Aston Villa 17th	Burnley 17th
19th	Stoke City 13th	Bournemouth 12th	Cardiff City 18th	Wolves 7th	Sheffield United 20th
20th	Sunderland 20th	Crystal Palace 11th	Huddersfield Town 20th	Watford 19th	Fulham 18th

As you can see, similar observations can be drawn. Of the last 30 teams to be sat in the bottom six positions of the Premier League after the opening six matches, 18 finished in the bottom six at the end of the season (including 12 that were relegated). Just four went on to finish in the top half, and only Manchester United last season achieved a top six finish.

Furthermore, at least one team in the bottom six after six matches went on to be relegated in each of the last five seasons. Even more ominously, at least one team in the bottom three after six games was relegated in 24 of the 26 38-match Premier League seasons to date, indicating that it can be thoroughly difficult to recover from a poor start to the campaign.

However, it is still important to remember that the teams occupying the relegation spots frequently change during the season, and on just one occasion in the Premier League have the bottom three teams after six matches gone on to be the three sides that were relegated (in 2006/07).

How can bettors use this data to their advantage?

Bettors can benefit from using the data above in different ways when betting on the Premier League as well as Europe’s other major soccer leagues. As outright markets are often reposted throughout the season, you can assess whether a team still offers value after a particularly good or bad start when analysing their chances of winning the league or getting relegated.

Equally, the first six matches of the season can be utilised to gauge performance and help predict the outcome of individual matches. As well as using the results from the opening stages of the season, applying Poisson distribution and using an expected goals model will also help you implement a more strategic approach to soccer league betting.