How will Leicester City perform next season?

Where did it all go wrong for Leicester?

Just when the top of the Premier League had appeared to have developed into a regular contest between a small cast of the usual affluent suspects, along came Leicester City to win the 2015/16 title at a relative canter.

Much has been written about Leicester’s achievement, ranging from the relative disarray at Manchester United and Chelsea compared to a settled Leicester team, the influence of Kante, the quickfire counter attacking of a Mahrez inspired Vardy and the jovial managerial skills of Ranieri.

Leicester's impressive margin of over achievement in 2015/16 compared to the match day odds is unprecedented in recent Premier League history.

Less than a year on from their title, much has changed at Leicester. Kante was prised away by new Champions, Chelsea. Vardy’s goals and Mahrez’ inventive skills dwindled and a defence that had previously boasted experience now merely looked old and slow.

Most significantly, Ranieri was a casualty of a dip in form that briefly threatened to bring about the relegation that had been narrowly averted in equally dashing fashion during the 2014/15 season.

Statistically, Leicester’s title winning season is an outlier compared to their current and preceding campaigns.

Using data taken from the football-data.co.uk it is easy to see the improvement that occurred in 2015/16 in terms of goals scored and allowed, as well as their share of shots taken in matches.

Either side of their title-winning season, Leicester’s overall performance has been that of a lower to mid-table Premier League team. They’ve been outshot and conceded more goals than they’ve scored, winning as many games in these two seasons combined as they amassed in their single triumphant season.

What can we learn from Leicester's drop in performance?

From a betting perspective, it quickly becomes apparent how Leicester’s sudden, if potentially short-lived, elevation was not wholly captured by the market, even as the season progressed.

A team’s match odds can be easily converted to a league points expectation for a single match and hence for the season as a whole in May.

For example, a team with an implied probability, once the margin has been removed of say 0.57 to win a match and 0.28 to draw it would be expected to gain, on average, 1.99 points from such a game. This is calculated by multiplying the win probability of 0.57 by the three points for a win and adding it to the probability of a draw multiplied by one. 

Neither actual season long performance from Leicester in 2014/15 nor 2016/17 show a marked divergence from the number of points expected from the match day odds typically quoted by the bookmakers. 

Since 2002/03 only West Ham (2015/16) Newcastle (2011/12) and Crystal Palace (2013/14) have beaten the bookmaker’s estimations by greater than 30% - none even challenged Leicester’s 52%.

However, in 2015/16 Leicester over performed the bookmaker’s expectation by over half as much again, winning the title with 81 points instead of the mere comfortable top half finish predicted by the match odds driven estimate of 53 points - such an impressive margin of over achievement compared to match day odds is unprecedented in recent Premier League history.

Since 2002/03 only West Ham, also in 2015/16, Newcastle in 2011/12 and Crystal Palace in 2013/14 have beaten the bookmaker’s week by week estimations by greater than 30% and none even challenged Leicester’s 52%. However, few sides managed to maintain or improve on such an impressive but uncharacteristic over performance into the next season. 

There’s very little upside for a team such as Leicester who dropped only 33 points in 2015/16, but even teams who improved into mid-table tended to regress subsequently - only nine of the sixty sides who beat the bookmaker’s expectation by 10% or more managed to beat their own points total in the next season.

Also from a betting perspective, beating the bookmaker’s expectation in one season gave no indication of how a side would perform against the revised bookmaker’s odds in the following season.

As many over performed against the bookmaker’s revised opinion following a season of exceeding expectations as under-performed. Overall Leicester’s regression in terms of points won this season compared to 2015/16 could have been reasonably expected in view of their huge increase from 2014/15. 

Which teams are likely to regress next season?

Match odds based estimates from the 2016/17 season suggest the bookmakers expected Leicester to perform exactly as they did in terms of expected points and actual points. So the bookmakers generally do a good job of reassessing the likely performance of a side following an unexpectedly impressive one off season, even if it is largely random if that side over or underperforms against the bookie’s new revised assessment.

This year, Chelsea, Tottenham, West Bromwich Albion and Burnley have each beaten the bookmaker’s odds based points expectation by 10% or greater. Therefore it is more than likely that they will fail to match their own 2016/17 end of season totals in 2017/18 - it is also likely that this anticipated decline will be well reflected in the match day prices next season.

This year, Chelsea, Tottenham, West Bromwich Albion and Burnley have each beaten the bookmaker’s odds based points expectation by 10% or greater.

Finally, if Leicester’s 2015/16 season was a combination of many factors, some personnel driven, some luck, some connected to the struggles of regular title challengers, combined with a use of novel attacking tactics that often become less effective with time, what lies in store for the Foxes in 2017/18?

Generally, a weighted summation of points won in multiple, previous seasons is a reliable indicator of future performance.

On that basis, Leicester look to have become an established Premier League member, capable of a benchmark points total centred about 48 in 2017/18.

But flirting with relegation appears much more likely than a title repeat, which will have to wait for the rare combination of events that made 2015/16 so memorable.

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