In one of the most high-profile transfers of what was a thoroughly eventful window, Cristiano Ronaldo rejoined Manchester United from Juventus 12 years after he originally left the club. What sort of impact could the 36-year-old have at Old Trafford and what influence has the transfer already had on this season’s soccer odds? Read on to find out.
Ronaldo’s impact on Pinnacle’s odds
Manchester United initially announced that they had established an agreement to sign Ronaldo on August 27, before the transfer was fully completed on August 31. While they are not outright favourites to win either competition, his addition to their squad has had a sizeable impact on their odds to win this season’s Premier League and Champions League.
Manchester United 2021/22 odds
|
Market |
Odds on August 27 (before Ronaldo announcement) |
Odds on September 9 |
|
Premier League |
8.000 |
|
|
Champions League |
15.000 |
As you can see, United’s odds to win the 2021/22 Premier League have shortened by almost half since August 27, while a successful €10 bet on United to win this season’s Champions League placed on September 9 would return €40 less than if it was placed two weeks earlier.
Pinnacle have also added specific Ronaldo-focused markets for this season:
Cristiano Ronaldo 2021/22 odds
|
Market |
Odds |
|
Cristiano Ronaldo to be Premier League top scorer |
|
|
Cristiano Ronaldo to score over 20.5 goals in the Premier League |
|
|
Cristiano Ronaldo to score more Champions League goals than Lionel Messi |
Analysing Ronaldo’s stats
However, in order to analyse whether any of the markets listed above will come to fruition, we need to consider the numbers that Ronaldo is potentially capable of posting for his new club. As a player considered to be the best in the world in many circles, Ronaldo’s stats speak for themselves and while he is presumably approaching the conclusion of his career, his last five seasons have been nothing short of staggering:
Cristiano Ronaldo: Recent career stats
|
Season |
Apps. |
Goals |
Assists |
G+A per app. |
Involvement in team goals |
|
2016/17 (Real Madrid) |
46 |
42 |
11 |
1.15 |
30.64% |
|
2017/18 (Real Madrid) |
44 |
44 |
8 |
1.18 |
35.13% |
|
2018/19 (Juventus) |
43 |
28 |
10 |
0.88 |
43.68% |
|
2019/20 (Juventus) |
46 |
37 |
5 |
0.91 |
42.42% |
|
2020/21 (Juventus) |
44 |
36 |
5 |
0.93 |
37.96% |
|
Total |
223 |
187 |
39 |
1.01 |
37.96% (average) |
The most striking takeaway is that Ronaldo appears to guarantee a goal and/or assist per match for his club, while serving an active role in just under four of every 10 goals they score.
Perhaps more encouragingly for Manchester United fans, his worst goal return in all competitions among the last five seasons was 28 in 2018/19. This was not bettered by a United player during the same period of time and was only matched by Zlatan Ibrahimovic in 2016/17 and Bruno Fernandes last season.
With this in mind, it seems appropriate to compare Ronaldo’s recent form to United’s other attacking options this season:
Cristiano Ronaldo vs. selected Manchester United players in 2020/21
|
Player |
Apps. |
Goals |
Assists |
G+A per app. |
Involvement in team goals |
|
Cristiano Ronaldo |
44 |
36 |
5 |
0.93 |
37.96% |
|
Bruno Fernandes |
56 |
28 |
18 |
0.82 |
38.01% |
|
Jadon Sancho* |
38 |
16 |
18 |
0.89 |
29.31% |
|
Marcus Rashford |
57 |
21 |
13 |
0.60 |
28.10% |
|
Mason Greenwood |
48 |
12 |
5 |
0.35 |
14.05% |
|
Jesse Lingard** |
19 |
9 |
4 |
0.68 |
13.68% |
|
Paul Pogba |
42 |
6 |
7 |
0.31 |
10.74% |
|
Anthony Martial |
36 |
7 |
5 |
0.33 |
9.91% |
*Stats for Borussia Dortmund.
**Stats include Jesse Lingard’s loan appearances at West Ham United.
Clearly, the players who came closest to emulating Ronaldo’s attacking output last season were Bruno Fernandes and fellow new signing Jadon Sancho, and they were the only two who also averaged at least 0.7 goals and assists per appearance last season.
However, it may be difficult for both Ronaldo and Fernandes to maintain such numbers this time round due to the fact that, as the primary penalty takers for their respective clubs in 2020/21, nine of Ronaldo’s 36 goals and 13 of Fernandes’ 28 goals were penalties.
United were awarded 18 penalties in all competitions last season (arguably an abnormally high number itself that could regress to the mean in 2021/22), meaning that if either player agrees to entirely forego penalty duties for this season, their goals return will presumably witness a notable decrease.
Will Ronaldo improve Manchester United’s xG?
Despite this, there are other metrics that indicate Ronaldo will easily improve the quality of Manchester United’s attack. He registered an expected goals (xG) return of 29.84 in Serie A last season, which translates to 0.90 per league appearance.
For argument’s sake, let us assume that Ronaldo will take penalties for Manchester United this season and thus subtract Bruno Fernandes’ penalty-based xG from his 2020/21 total. This means that by comparison, the four United players who recorded the highest league xG last season (Marcus Rashford, Fernandes, Mason Greenwood, and Edinson Cavani) managed a collective total of just 31.95. This translates to an average of 0.28 per league appearance for each player.
If we therefore subsituted one of these players for Ronaldo's xG output, this means that they can be expected to score 0.62 more goals per game with him in the team.
To put this into context, that would boost the number of league goals they scored last season by 24 to 97 (which would have been the highest in the Premier League by 14) and their xG return by 23.56 to 86.73 (also a league high).
Even more notably, such an increase in their xG would have raised their expected points (xPTS) total from 65.64 (fourth best in the league) to 79.80 (second best), just 4.18 less than champions Manchester City’s equivalent total. Bearing in mind that in the same transfer window United also added Raphael Varane and Jadon Sancho to their ranks, the question can now be firmly raised as to whether Ronaldo is the final piece in the jigsaw in United’s ongoing attempts to build a team capable of winning the Premier League.
Manchester United’s 2020/21 league season with and without Cristiano Ronaldo
|
Season |
GF |
GA |
GD |
xPTS |
xPTS behind winners |
|
Actual season |
73 |
44 |
+29 |
65.64 |
17.74 |
|
Projected season with Ronaldo's xG stats |
97 |
44 |
+53 |
79.80 |
4.18 |
Fitting Ronaldo into the Manchester United team
Of course, any improvements will not be as instant or straightforward as this and Ronaldo’s arrival certainly prompts tactical considerations for manager Ole Gunnar Solksjaer. He will now be charged with the task of exercising the talents of Ronaldo, Fernandes, Cavani, Rashford, Pogba, Greenwood, and Sancho while ensuring the line-up is not too attack-minded as to be defensively susceptible and previous starters can maintain form amidst a likely reduction in playing time.
Solksjaer will need to also establish what position he wants to play Ronaldo in. While during his first stint at United and at Real Madrid he established himself as a world-class right-winger, at Juventus he was deployed as something closer to a conventional and more central striker, often with a partner. This immediately conflicts with Solksjaer’s tactical setup, as he has most commonly utilised either a 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3 formation during his time as manager.
Either way, Ronaldo’s arrival should mean that Manchester United are an inherently exciting team to watch this season and there are plenty of reasons to suggest that he will serve a prominent role throughout their campaign.