How important was Lionel Messi to Barcelona?

Lionel Messi at Barcelona: A timeline

Messi’s impact on Pinnacle’s odds

Arguably the best place to start for analysing Messi’s impact is Pinnacle’s own betting markets, in which his departure has already had a direct influence on Barcelona’s odds. On August 5, just a few hours before the news broke that he would not be renewing his contract, Barcelona led the outright market for this season’s La Liga as 2.290 favourites.

By August 9, when the club had officially confirmed he was leaving, Barcelona’s odds had lengthened to 3.450* and they had fallen to third-favourites to win the title behind both Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid. To put that into context, Barcelona have only finished outside the top two in La Liga once in the last 13 seasons.

Lionel Messi’s impact on this season's La Liga odds

Team	Odds to win La Liga 2021/22 before news of Messi’s departure	Odds to win La Liga 2021/22 after news of Messi’s departure
Barcelona	2.290	3.450*
Real Madrid	2.570	2.090*
Atletico Madrid	4.360	3.350*

During the same period, Barcelona’s odds to win this season’s Champions League lengthened from 15.300 to 18.130* (having reached as long as 22.550 at one stage). Conversely, the odds for Messi’s new club PSG moved from 5.130 to 3.680* favourites to lift the trophy in 2021/22.

Unsurprisingly, Messi’s absence having an adverse impact on Barcelona’s odds is far from unprecedented. When it was announced that an injured Messi would miss a league match against Real Madrid in October 2018, Barcelona’s odds to win the fixture lengthened from 1.740 to 2.090, slashing their win probability from 57.5% to 47.8% in the process. Meanwhile, Madrid’s odds shortened from 4.300 to 3.390.

Analysing Messi’s Barcelona stats

Messi is perhaps the finest example of a player whose stats speak for themselves. Here is how a career that has featured four Champions League trophies, 10 La Liga titles, seven Copa del Reys, eight Spanish Super Cups, three UEFA Super Cups, three Club World Cups, and six Ballon d’ors translates into Messi’s 17 seasons at Barcelona:

Lionel Messi: Barcelona stats

The numbers are staggering. Aside from the highly impressive return of 672 goals and 268 assists, the 34-year-old has turned in more than one goal and/or assist per appearance in every season since 2008/09. On top of that, he has been directly involved in less than 40% of Barcelona’s goals in all competitions during a season on just two occasions since 2009/10.

There is no shortage of stats in the table above worthy of specific attention. In 2011/12, Messi recorded a total of 102 goals and assists (equivalent to 1.7 goals and assists per game), while in that season as well as in 2018/19 and 2019/20, over half of Barcelona’s goals were either scored or assisted by Messi.

The obvious question for Barcelona is thus how they replace his contribution in their attacking output and the presumed answer is with great difficulty. Messi was involved in 40.98% of Barcelona’s goals in all competitions during 2020/21 (actually his second-worst individual return among the last five seasons), while Antoine Griezmann was only the other Barcelona player involved in more than 20%.

While new signing Memphis Depay did post more encouraging numbers on this front, they still fell short of Messi’s. Amidst the news that fellow attacking acquisition Sergio Aguero is injured for the next few months, Depay is taking on an unenviable level of responsibility for the opening stages of this season.

Goals, assists, and goal involvements in 2020/21 (selected players)

Player	Goals	Assists	Involvement in team goals
Lionel Messi (Barcelona)	38	12	40.98%
Memphis Depay (Lyon)	22	12	36.55%
Antoine Griezmann (Barcelona)	20	12	26.22%
Ousmane Dembele (Barcelona)	11	5	13.11%
Frenkie de Jong (Barcelona)	7	7	11.47%
Martin Braithwaite (Barcelona)	7	3	8.19%

Furthermore, without Messi’s 30 league goals last season (which represented 35.29% of Barcelona’s total), Barcelona would have been 15 points worse off in La Liga, placing them 20 points behind Real Madrid and 22 behind champions Atletico.

This is partially because Messi is a rare breed of player who consistently outperforms against both his expected goals (xG) and expected assists (xA) metrics. As a consequence, not only has he served as the fulcrum of Barcelona’s attack, but he has done so to a greater standard than can be reasonably expected of him.

Lionel Messi: Expected goals and expected assists stats

Season	Messi’s combined goals and assists in La Liga	Messi’s combined xG and xA in La Liga	Overperformance
2016/17	46	40.85	+5.15
2017/18	46	44.05	+1.85
2018/19	49	41.34	+7.66
2019/20	45	37.44	+7.56
2020/21	39	38.10	+0.90
Total	226	201.78	+24.22

Expected goals and assists stats taken from Understat.

How will Lionel Messi do at PSG?

Perhaps the last question that remains is how Messi will fare at his new team PSG. He has been priced at 1.806* with Pinnacle to score over 27.5 league goals in 2021/22 (something he has failed to do only twice since 2009/10) and is available at 2.020* to net under 27.5.

PSG 2021/22 odds

Market	Odds
PSG to win Ligue 1	1.086*
PSG to win the Champions League	3.680*
Lionel Messi to score over 27.5 goals in Ligue 1	1.806*

Messi’s performances may depend on a range of factors, including how efficiently he adjusts to playing in a new league for the first time in his career, how Mauricio Pochettino integrates him tactically, and whether he can avoid the injury and fitness issues that have plagued him to a minor extent during the last few seasons.

However, with the six-time Ballon d’Or winner joining an attack that can already boast Neymar, Kylian Mbappe, and Mauro Icardi, an absence of quality from his teammates certainly shouldn’t have a negative impact on his numbers this season.