This week
Dec 5, 2023

Goalimpact European soccer predictions

Comparing Goalimpact’s metrics with Pinnacle’s soccer markets

Goalimpact’s Bundesliga predictions

Goalimpact’s Serie A predictions

Who will win in the Bundesliga and Serie A?

Goalimpact European soccer predictions

The Goalimpact model rates players only by their influence on the scoreline. Based on this, Goalimpact can give probabilities for game and league outcomes whilst correcting for Home Field Advantage. But how does the model compare to Pinnacle's Bundesliga and Serie A markets throughout the season? Dr. Patrick May delves into all the data to help you make profitable predictions.

Three things to note:

1)    Usually, Goalimpact calculates the odds based on the Starting XIs. However, since these cannot be known with certainty a week before the match, for this series we will estimate the odds based on the top 18 currently available players in a squad. Since the best players don’t always play, this is still a good estimate.

2)    Goalimpact only makes very small adjustments when looking at recent trends. Although we have trend data in our algorithm (the two-year value), the game probabilities are based on a player’s career average. Hence, recent performances will only contribute very little to game probabilities. 

3)    Coaches are not yet part of Goalimpact. Good coaches will outperform the Goalimpact algorithm. Bad coaches fail to meet expectations. Here, every reader and bettor should use their own judgment until Goalimpact develops Coachimpact this season.

This week, we will focus on the following games in the Serie A:

Juventus - Napoli

Verona - Lazio

Roma - Fiorentina

Game of the Week: Juventus vs. Napoli

Reigning champions Napoli are currently nine points behind second placed Juventus, so a loss at the San Siro could be decisive in the fight to retain their title. On the other hand, are Juventus the only club who seem to be capable of keeping up with Inter? Where does the edge lie when comparing the Goalimpact model with Pinnacle's markets?

Team Goalimpacts

Juventus 161.8 - Napoli 162.8

Players With the Highest Goalimpacts

Arkadiusz Milik for Juventus

Mathias Olivera for Napoli

Odds Comparison

Home win

Draw

Away win

Goalimpact

2.587

3.260

3.260

Pinnacle

3.460

3.230

3.160

+/-

-0.117

-0.030

-0.100

xGoals

Goals scored

Home

Away

0

34.0%

39.6%

1

36.7%

36.7%

2

19.8%

17.0%

3

7.1%

5.2%

4

1.9%

1.2%

xGoals

1.08 - 0.93

Most Likely Score
1-0

Verona vs. Lazio

At this point in the season, both clubs are definitely performing below expectations. Lazio are currently struggling to compete for the international qualification places, whilst Verona are fighting to remain in the league. What are the odds?

Odds Comparison

Home win

Draw

Away win

Goalimpact

3.774

3.328

2.301

Pinnacle

4.120

3.460

1.990

+/-

-0.346

+0.132

-0.311


Most Likely Score
      0-1

AS Roma vs. Fiorentina

Both of these clubs are close in the table as they compete for the final Champions League position in the league. With a win, Roma could increase the distance between them and Fiorentina to four points, gaining an edge in the competition to play in the UCL next season.

Odds Comparison

Home win

Draw

Away win

Goalimpact

1.916

3.583

5.022

Pinnacle

2.010

3.580

3.840

+/-

+0.094

-0.003

-1.182


Most Likely Score 1-0 This week we will focus on the following games in the Bundesliga:

Dortmund - Leipzig

Bremen - Augsburg

Stuttgart - Leverkusen

Game of the Week: Borussia Dortmund vs. RB Leipzig

With Bayern Munich being the dominant force in Germany, Borussia Dortmund against RB Leipzig is usually a second place decider in the Bundesliga. This season, however, the question is actually: who will be number three? Bayern and Bayer Leverkusen seem to have already locked down the top two positions. 

Dortmund got a point against Leverkusen last week, but what are the odds here?

Team Goalimpacts  

Dortmund 163.8 - Leipzig 171.2

Players With the Highest Goalimpacts

Sébastien Haller for Borussia Dortmund

Xaver Schlager for RB Leipzig

Odds Comparison

Home win

Draw

Away win

Goalimpact

3.112

3.249

2.697

Pinnacle

2.410

3.910

2.750

+/-

-0.702

+0.661

-0.053

xGoals

Goals scored

Home 

Away

0

38.5%

35.0%

1

36.7%

36.7%

2

17.5%

19.3%

3

5.6%

6.7%

4

1.3%

1.8%

xGoals

0.95 - 1.05


Most Likely Score

0-1

Werder Bremen vs. Augsburg

Augsburg haven‘t lost a game since new coach Jess Thorup took over in October 2023. Will they continue their great form in Bremen?

Odds Comparison 

Home win

Draw

Away win

Goalimpact

2.419

3.293

3.536

Pinnacle

2.540

3.730

2.700

+/-

+0.121

+0.437

-0.836


Most Likely Score 

1-0

Stuttgart vs. Bayer Leverkusen

This could potentially be the most exciting game of the weekend. No, not Dortmund and Leipzig, but rather third placed Stuttgart against top of the table Bayer Leverkusen.

Is there an edge to be found in both Goalimpact and Pinnacle’s odds?

Odds Comparison

Home win

Draw

Away win

Goalimpact

3.424

3.278

2.482

Pinnacle

2.930

3.800

2.300

+/-

-0.494

+0.422

-0.182

Most Likely Score
0-1

You can make your picks on European soccer at Pinnacle.com.

Patrick writes for Goalimpact and how clubs can utilise it here: https://goalimpact.substack.com/.

Odds subject to change

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