The Goalimpact model rates players only by their influence on the scoreline. Based on this, Goalimpact can give probabilities for game and league outcomes whilst correcting for Home Field Advantage. But how does the model compare to Pinnacle's Bundesliga and Serie A markets throughout the season? Dr. Patrick May delves into all the data to help you make profitable predictions.
Three things to note:
1) Usually, Goalimpact calculates the odds based on the Starting XIs. However, since these cannot be known with certainty a week before the match, for this series we will estimate the odds based on the top 18 currently available players in a squad. Since the best players don’t always play, this is still a good estimate.
2) Goalimpact only makes very small adjustments when looking at recent trends. Although we have trend data in our algorithm (the two-year value), the game probabilities are based on a player’s career average. Hence, recent performances will only contribute very little to game probabilities.
3) Coaches are not yet part of Goalimpact. Good coaches will outperform the Goalimpact algorithm. Bad coaches fail to meet expectations. Here, every reader and bettor should use their own judgment until Goalimpact develops Coachimpact this season.
This week, we will focus on the following games in the Serie A:
Juventus - Napoli
Verona - Lazio
Roma - Fiorentina
Game of the Week: Juventus vs. Napoli
Reigning champions Napoli are currently nine points behind second placed Juventus, so a loss at the San Siro could be decisive in the fight to retain their title. On the other hand, are Juventus the only club who seem to be capable of keeping up with Inter? Where does the edge lie when comparing the Goalimpact model with Pinnacle's markets?
Team Goalimpacts
Juventus 161.8 - Napoli 162.8
Players With the Highest Goalimpacts
Arkadiusz Milik for Juventus
Mathias Olivera for Napoli
Odds Comparison
|
Home win |
Draw |
Away win | |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Goalimpact |
2.587 |
3.260 |
3.260 |
|
Pinnacle |
3.460 |
3.230 |
3.160 |
|
+/- |
-0.117 |
-0.030 |
-0.100 |
xGoals
|
Goals scored |
Home |
Away |
|
0 |
34.0% |
39.6% |
|
1 |
36.7% |
36.7% |
|
2 |
19.8% |
17.0% |
|
3 |
7.1% |
5.2% |
|
4 |
1.9% |
1.2% |
xGoals
1.08 - 0.93
Most Likely Score
1-0
Verona vs. Lazio
At this point in the season, both clubs are definitely performing below expectations. Lazio are currently struggling to compete for the international qualification places, whilst Verona are fighting to remain in the league. What are the odds?
Odds Comparison
|
Home win |
Draw |
Away win | |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Goalimpact |
3.774 |
3.328 |
2.301 |
|
Pinnacle |
4.120 |
3.460 |
1.990 |
|
+/- |
-0.346 |
+0.132 |
-0.311 |
Most Likely Score
- 0-1
AS Roma vs. Fiorentina
Both of these clubs are close in the table as they compete for the final Champions League position in the league. With a win, Roma could increase the distance between them and Fiorentina to four points, gaining an edge in the competition to play in the UCL next season.
Odds Comparison
|
Home win |
Draw |
Away win | |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Goalimpact |
1.916 |
3.583 |
5.022 |
|
Pinnacle |
2.010 |
3.580 |
3.840 |
|
+/- |
+0.094 |
-0.003 |
-1.182 |
Most Likely Score 1-0 This week we will focus on the following games in the Bundesliga:
Dortmund - Leipzig
Bremen - Augsburg
Stuttgart - Leverkusen
Game of the Week: Borussia Dortmund vs. RB Leipzig
With Bayern Munich being the dominant force in Germany, Borussia Dortmund against RB Leipzig is usually a second place decider in the Bundesliga. This season, however, the question is actually: who will be number three? Bayern and Bayer Leverkusen seem to have already locked down the top two positions.
Dortmund got a point against Leverkusen last week, but what are the odds here?
Team Goalimpacts
Dortmund 163.8 - Leipzig 171.2
Players With the Highest Goalimpacts
Sébastien Haller for Borussia Dortmund
Xaver Schlager for RB Leipzig
Odds Comparison
|
Home win |
Draw |
Away win | |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Goalimpact |
3.112 |
3.249 |
2.697 |
|
Pinnacle |
2.410 |
3.910 |
2.750 |
|
+/- |
-0.702 |
+0.661 |
-0.053 |
xGoals
|
Goals scored |
Home |
Away |
|
0 |
38.5% |
35.0% |
|
1 |
36.7% |
36.7% |
|
2 |
17.5% |
19.3% |
|
3 |
5.6% |
6.7% |
|
4 |
1.3% |
1.8% |
xGoals
0.95 - 1.05
Most Likely Score
0-1
Werder Bremen vs. Augsburg
Augsburg haven‘t lost a game since new coach Jess Thorup took over in October 2023. Will they continue their great form in Bremen?
Odds Comparison
|
Home win |
Draw |
Away win | |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Goalimpact |
2.419 |
3.293 |
3.536 |
|
Pinnacle |
2.540 |
3.730 |
2.700 |
|
+/- |
+0.121 |
+0.437 |
-0.836 |
Most Likely Score
1-0
Stuttgart vs. Bayer Leverkusen
This could potentially be the most exciting game of the weekend. No, not Dortmund and Leipzig, but rather third placed Stuttgart against top of the table Bayer Leverkusen.
Is there an edge to be found in both Goalimpact and Pinnacle’s odds?
Odds Comparison
|
Home win |
Draw |
Away win | |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Goalimpact |
3.424 |
3.278 |
2.482 |
|
Pinnacle |
2.930 |
3.800 |
2.300 |
|
+/- |
-0.494 |
+0.422 |
-0.182 |
Most Likely Score
0-1
You can make your picks on European soccer at Pinnacle.com.
Patrick writes for Goalimpact and how clubs can utilise it here: https://goalimpact.substack.com/.