May 24, 2023
May 24, 2023

Manchester City vs. Manchester United: FA Cup final 2023 preview

A Manchester derby in the English FA Cup final

Who will win the FA Cup 2023?

Odds, stats, and analysis for Man City vs. Man United

Man City vs. Man United: Who has the edge?

Manchester City vs. Manchester United: FA Cup final 2023 preview

Manchester City are seeking to emulate the Manchester United team of 1999 and secure the domestic treble, but it’s their great cross-city rivals that stand in the way of them claiming the second part of the three-piece suit – the FA Cup.

The Red Devils will have made good memories in Wembley Stadium already this season after winning the Carabao Cup in February against Newcastle United. Read on to inform your predictions for the 2023 FA Cup on Saturday, June 3.

Although Manchester City claimed a third straight Premier League title this season, the two clubs have shared the spoils during the league campaign. City were 6-1 up before settling for a 6-3 victory at the Etihad Stadium, but Manchester United won at Old Trafford 2-1 with Marcus Rashford scoring the decisive goal.

Since then, City have become something of an immovable force at the summit of European soccer. However, in the last few seasons, they haven’t had it all their own way against United. Can Erik ten Hag spoil the Cityzens’ party and secure a second trophy in his debut season in England?

Date/time: Saturday, June 3, 2023 – 15:00 GMT

Venue: Wembley Stadium, London

Manchester City vs. Manchester United: predicted line-ups 

Man City – GK: Ederson; LCB: Manuel Akanji, CB: Rúben Dias, RCB: Kyle Walker; CDM: John Stones, CDM: Rodri; MF: Bernardo Silva, MF: Kevin De Bruyne, MF: İlkay Gündoğan, MF: Jack Grealish; ST: Erling Braut Haaland

Man United – GK: David de Gea; LB: Luke Shaw, CB: Victor Lindelöf, CB: Raphaël Varane, RB: Aaron Wan-Bissaka; MF: Casemiro, MF: Christian Eriksen, MF: Bruno Fernandes, LW: Marcus Rashford, ST: Anthony Martial, RW: Jadon Sancho

FA Cup Final: A closer look at the odds

Pinnacle’s odds suggest Manchester City are the heavy favourites to win the final (including extra time and penalties) at 1.283*, with Manchester United out at 3.800*.

In the Money Line markets, there’s not too much difference, with Pep Guardiola’s team being the 1.520* picks to win in 90 minutes. United are 6.060* to win in normal time, and a draw is priced at 4.790*.

Examining the Total Goals market, both teams have scored in the previous three meetings, which include a 4-1 scoreline and the aforementioned 6-3 City success. Over 3.5 goals in this one is 2.470*, with Manchester City on the -1.75 handicap at 2.790*.

Both teams have scored in the previous three meetings.

However, delving into recent history of FA Cup finals, there has only been one goal scored in normal time in the last two finals. That was Youri Tielemans’ 63rd-minute strike for Leicester City against Chelsea in the 2020-21 campaign.

With so much riding on the match and with it being a derby fixture, we could see both teams play the first half cautiously, almost like a game of chess. Who will blink first? Under one goal in the first half is at 2.350*. Although, it’s worth noting that the last time City made the final in 2019 they scored six goals in a whitewash of Watford.

United did lose to Liverpool 7-0 earlier this season, but it’s hard to foresee a straightforward afternoon for either side, particularly in the first half. If you do believe there will be a fast start in the match, Man City to go Over 0.5 in the first half is 1.602*, and Man United are at 2.790* in the same market.

FA Cup head-to-head record 

Surprisingly, the last time the pair met in this competition was back in 2012, in an FA Cup third-round tie at the Etihad Stadium. A brace from Wayne Rooney and Danny Welbeck saw United go 3-0 up before Aleksandar Kolarov and Sergio Agüero pulled goals back.

Before that came the 2011 semi-final at Wembley, where Yaya Touré scored the only goal of the game to win 1-0. They then went on to secure the trophy, which would be the start of a new age of decorated success for the club.

Another Manchester City victory would seal a seventh FA Cup overall, but just a second under Guardiola. A Manchester United triumph would take them to 13, just one behind Arsenal (14).

FA Cup Final: Who has the edge?

Having a clean bill of health across the whole squad may be a key factor in the outcome here – since the 2015 FA Cup Final, three substitutes have come on to score in the fixture.

Whilst en route to the final this season, Man United have had a substitute come off the bench to score twice. Coincidentally, both times this substitute was midfielder Fred. Could the Brazilian play a major role from the bench again?

On the other hand, it’s only young midfielder Cole Palmer who has scored from the bench for City in their run to the final, when the game was already wrapped up against Burnley in the quarter-finals.

Erling Haaland’s season has been unprecedented, with 52 goals scored across all competitions - but only three in the FA Cup. The Norwegian should start, but it’s Riyad Mahrez who is the top scorer for Man City in the competition with five goals. Julián Álvarez and Phil Foden also have three apiece too. Pinnacle have gone with Bernardo Silva as the attacking midfielder for the final, but it could easily be Foden, Alvarez, or Mahrez.

The absence of defensive lynchpin Lisandro Martínez might sway this.

Man United also have options in the wings, including Jadon Sancho, Alejandro Garnacho, and Facundo Pellistri. It’s Guardiola’s players who all seem to be in form, which could sway this tie.

The only team to win the cup as underdogs since Wigan Athletic (11.9% implied probability) defeated Manchester City in 2013 were Leicester in the 2021 final versus Chelsea (23.3%).

If Manchester United are to win this match, they will take heart from coming back from 1-0 down at Old Trafford to beat City 2-1 this season. However, the absence of defensive lynchpin Lisandro Martínez could be a deciding factor.

Feel informed and ready to land a winner? You can make your FA Cup predictions with Pinnacle here.

Odds subject to change

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