Feb 16, 2023
Feb 16, 2023

Manchester United vs. Newcastle United: EFL Cup final 2023 preview

Inform your English Football League predictions

EFL Cup final statistics and data

Manchester United vs. Newcastle United: English Football League records

Manchester United vs. Newcastle United odds: Where is the betting value?

Manchester United vs. Newcastle United: EFL Cup final 2023 preview

While both these clubs have genuine possibilities of confirming Champions League soccer through the Premier League in May. The English Football League Cup final represents a piece of tangible silverware to show for their impressive seasons to date. With the fixture appears finely poised, read on to inform your League Cup final betting odds and predictions across Pinnacle’s range of match markets.

While both these clubs have genuine possibilities to qualify for the Champions League through the Premier League in May, the League Cup final represents a great opportunity to demonstrate their impressive seasons to date. If the fixture appears finely poised, read on to inform your League Cup final betting predictions across Pinnacle’s range of match markets.

As hinted, a victory in this match could give the winning team real impetus for the rest of the season, but also end long-trophy droughts too. Manchester United have not won a major trophy in almost six years – dating back to the 2017 Europa League final). Their last League Cup triumph came in the 2016-17 season. It would also represent a maiden trophy in Erik ten Hag’s first season in charge at Old Trafford.

Newcastle United’s last major honour came in the 1968-69 Intern-Cities Fairs Cup, in a win over Hungarian club Ujpest – nearly 54 years ago. The Magpies reached successive FA Cup finals in 1997-98 (losing to Arsenal) and 1998-99 (losing to Manchester United).

Date/time: Sunday, February 26, 2023 – 16:30 GMT

Venue: Wembley Stadium, London

Manchester United
Manager: Erik ten Hag

GK: David De Gea; RB: Diogo Dalot, CB: Raphaël Varane, CB: Lisandro Martínez, LB: Luke Shaw; CM: Casemiro, CM: Marcel Sabitzer, CM: Bruno Fernandes; LW: Marcus Rashford, RW: Jadon Sancho, ST: Wout Weghorst

Newcastle United
Manager: Eddie Howe

GK: Nick Pope, LB: Dan Burn, CB: Sven Botman, CB: Fabian Schar, RB: Kieran Tripper; CM: Bruno Guimarães, CM: Joe Willock, CM: Sean Longstaff; LW: Joelinton, RW: Miguel Almiron, ST: Callum Wilson

English Football League Cup final: A closer look at the odds

The money line market has Manchester United at +128 [2.280] to win in 90 minutes. The draw is valued at +238 [3.380], with Newcastle the slight outsiders for victory in regular time at +217 [3.170], a 31.5% implied probability.

Observing Pinnacle’s other markets, Man United are -399 [1.250] on the +0.75 handicap and  Eddie Howe’s team is +298 [3.980] on the -0.75 handicap.

Newcastle have the best defensive record in the Premier League to date, conceding just 13 goals in 22 matches (Arsenal are second with 18 goals in 21 matches). At the time of writing – before Newcastle vs. Liverpool – Under 2 goals has come in, in five of Newcastle’s last six matches in all competitions. This one is +167 [2.670] to go Under 2 goals.

Another market would be 1st Half Draw priced at +118 [2.180], with 0-0 at half-time for four of the last seven finals.

The final market we will look at is the big one, or the odds for To Advance – in other words lift the trophy. Pinnacle’s traders give ten Hag’s team a 59.7% implied probability chance to come out victorious with Newcastle a 44.6% IP [+124] to claim the silverware.

Head-to-Head Cup soccer

We will have to go back over 30 years – and before the formation of the English Premier League – to really get some data on these two clubs in cup competitions. In February 1990, Manchester United edged out Newcastle United at St. James’ Park 2-3 to reach the FA Cup sixth round. For context the goal-scorers that day were Mark McGhee and Kevin Scott for the Magpies. While a goal apiece for Brian McClair, Mark Robins and Danny Wallace wrapped up the game for Man United.

There was a 2-0 victory for Newcastle in this competition in October 1994. Phillipe Albert and Paul Kitson scored on that occasion. Then, the aforementioned FA Cup final in 1999 rounded out the 90’s.

It was not until 2005 that they faced each other in a cup competition again as Manchester United ran out 4-1 winners in the FA Cup semi-final at the Millennium Stadium, Cardiff.

The last time the pair met in the League Cup was at Old Trafford in 2012, during Alan Pardew’s tenure in charge of Newcastle. Anderson and Tom Cleverley scored for Man United, with Papiss Cissé scoring for the away side.

Manchester United have won the League Cup on five separate occasions, while Newcastle have never won the trophy – having been runners up during the 1975-76 campaign.

Manchester United vs. Newcastle United: Who has the edge?

It’s near on redundant to look at head-to-head cup records to find a winner here. These are two clubs at completely different stages of their life-span – but strangely both will feel this trophy could be the pivotal springboard to greater things (Champions League qualification in the short term, and Premier League success in the longer-term).

Newcastle have built somewhat of a fortress at St. James’ Park this campaign. They scored first and won in three of the four home games they had in this year’s competition. The outlier being the penalty shoot-out victory against Crystal Palace in the third round, after a 0-0 score-line. But how they take to playing at Wembley Stadium in their first final since 1999 could be the deciding factor.

Laying out the bare facts: a stubborn, well drilled defence – 12 Premier League clean sheets (the most in the division) against one of the most in-form forwards in world soccer right now, Marcus Rashford. He’s come alive since the World Cup break and has most goals and assists (9) in the Premier League since the re-start on 26 December 2022. Rashford’s form has only been matched by Victor Osimhen for Napoli in Serie A.

Whichever Brazilian midfielder controls the central areas out of Casemiro and Guimarães may prove decisive in who has the stranglehold on the match. Add to that, whether the running power and dynamism of Joelinton, Joe Willock and Sean Longstaff will be too much to handle. While, Kieran Trippier has made the most crosses (226) of any player in the top five European leagues which could be a theme throughout the match. Or, if will we witness a Bruno Fernandes masterclass in creation and crashing the penalty box.

Manchester United vs. Newcastle United odds: Where is the betting value?

As mentioned, a scoreless first half may be a value play. In the event of an early goal for either side, we could get quite an open match with both clubs knowing the importance this trophy could have on this season, but also for the next few years.

Newcastle to go Over 1.5 goals is +184 [2.840], with Manchester United at +125 [2.250] in the same market.

Over 2.5 goals in 90 minutes is [1.961], if you expect the floodgates to open. Manchester United are favourites, but could be fatigued after their hotly-contested, two-legged Europa League ties to come against Barcelona in the lead up. Newcastle outright on the Money Line could have the juice and have some value at +217 [3.170].

Make your League Cup final predictions and bet with Pinnacle here.

Odds subject to change

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