Both Teams To Score (often referred to as BTTS) has become an increasingly popular market in soccer betting, primarily because it is a straightforward bet reliant on a simple outcome. In Europe’s five major soccer leagues, 52.47% of matches have witnessed both teams score during the last five seasons. So is analysing this market as simple as the fact that both teams score in matches approximately half of the time? Read on to find out.
What is a Both Teams To Score (BTTS) bet?
A Both Teams To Score (BTTS) bet is a bet that both teams will score in a soccer match. For instance, if the match finishes 1-1, 3-2 or 5-5 then the bet has won, but if it finishes 0-0, 1-0 or 3-0 then it has lost.
A glance at the stat mentioned in the introduction may give off the impression that a Both Teams To Score bet is comparable to a coin toss, or anything with an approximate 50/50 outcome. However, this type of bet could and should be informed by factors including the two teams playing, their recent stats and previous results and occasionally even when the match is taking place.
Both Teams To Score stats
Here are the percentage of matches in Europe’s five major soccer leagues in which both teams scored during the last five seasons:
|
League |
2015-16 |
2016-17 |
2017-18 |
2018-19 |
2019-20* |
Average |
|
Premier League |
51.84% |
50.66% |
48.95% |
51.32% |
53.47% |
51.25% |
|
La Liga |
50.27% |
56.05% |
46.58% |
51.84% |
52.22% |
51.39% |
|
Serie A |
51.05% |
57.37% |
49.47% |
54.74% |
59.38% |
54.40% |
|
Bundesliga |
54.58% |
54.90% |
54.90% |
59.48% |
59.38% |
56.65% |
|
Ligue 1 |
48.42% |
46.32% |
50.53% |
49.74% |
48.39% |
48.68% |
*Statistics for 2019-20 taken up to until each league was suspended due to the COVID-19 pandemic in March.
In the 25 individual seasons covered during this period, teams have recorded widely varying BTTS stats. For instance, in the 2018-19 Bundesliga both teams scored in 82.35% of Hoffenheim and Werder Bremen’s matches, whereas in the 2016-17 Ligue 1 season, only 23.68% of Nancy’s fixtures involved both teams scoring.
However, when a team’s stats are analysed over a longer period of time, it becomes clear that they will produce similar numbers of matches in which both teams scored. Here are the stats for the 13 teams that have competed in each of the last five Premier League seasons:
|
Team |
2015-16 |
2016-17 |
2017-18 |
2018-19 |
2019-20* |
Average |
|
Arsenal |
42.11% |
60.53% |
55.26% |
68.42% |
64.29% |
58.12% |
|
Leicester City |
57.89% |
52.63% |
63.16% |
57.89% |
51.72% |
56.66% |
|
West Ham United |
65.79% |
55.26% |
57.89% |
47.37% |
51.72% |
55.60% |
|
Southampton |
50.00% |
42.11% |
55.26% |
65.79% |
62.07% |
55.05% |
|
Tottenham |
57.89% |
47.37% |
50.00% |
50.00% |
68.97% |
54.85% |
|
Bournemouth |
60.53% |
55.26% |
57.89% |
44.74% |
55.17% |
54.72% |
|
Liverpool |
55.26% |
63.16% |
47.37% |
44.74% |
55.17% |
53.14% |
|
Everton |
55.26% |
50.00% |
52.63% |
44.74% |
62.07% |
52.94% |
|
Manchester City |
50.00% |
60.53% |
52.63% |
44.74% |
53.57% |
52.29% |
|
Chelsea |
63.16% |
50.00% |
44.74% |
42.11% |
58.62% |
51.73% |
|
Manchester United |
39.47% |
50.00% |
36.84% |
68.42% |
48.28% |
48.60% |
|
Crystal Palace |
52.63% |
47.37% |
50.00% |
50.00% |
41.38% |
48.28% |
|
Watford |
44.74% |
47.37% |
47.37% |
60.73% |
37.93% |
47.63% |
*Statistics for 2019-20 taken up to until the Premier League was suspended due to the COVID-19 pandemic in March.
Of these 13 teams, all but two have recorded an average percentage of matches in which both teams scored within a 5% margin of the overall Premier League average of 51.25%. The average for these 13 teams is in fact 53.05%, equating to 20.15 of 38 league matches.
Based on this, it seems that perennial English top flight teams can be relied upon to produce around 18 to 22 league matches per season in which both teams score. However, the key information for bettors are reliable match statistics capable of indicating when teams are more likely to both score and concede in a game.
How to inform Both Teams To Score betting
The following table uses Spearman's rank correlation to assess the relationship between both teams scoring and various stats for the last five seasons in the Premier League:
|
Statistic |
Spearman's Rank correlation with BTTS |
|
Total goals |
0.616 |
|
Total clean sheets |
-0.471 |
|
Times failed to score |
-0.466 |
|
Total shots on target |
0.385 |
|
Total goals scored |
0.325 |
|
Total goals against |
0.227 |
|
Total shots |
0.133 |
|
Goal difference |
0.032 |
|
League position |
0.021 |
Perhaps unsurprisingly, the statistic with the greatest positive correlation to both teams scoring is the number of goals a team’s matches have featured. Put simply, if a team’s league fixtures are producing an average of five goals per match, then they can be considered more likely to play out a game in which both teams score than a team averaging two goals per fixture.
Conversely, if a team and/or their opponent are particularly adept at keeping clean sheets and and/or struggling to score goals, then naturally this suggests that a fixture between the two sides will be less likely than average to witness both scoring.
In the 2018-19 Premier League, all but three teams experienced a run of at least three successive fixtures in which both teams scored.
Notably, a team’s goal difference and league position prove largely irrelevant at indicating whether both teams will score in their matches.
Specifically focusing on the 2018-19 Premier League, there was only a minimal impact on the likelihood of both teams scoring in a match based on whether both teams scored in a team’s previous game. At least one team failed to score in 48.68% of matches that season, and if both teams had not scored in a team's previous match, then at least one didn't score in the team’s next match 51.38% of the time.
If both teams had scored in a team's previous fixture, then they did so again in the team's next match 54.62% of the time, slightly higher than the overall league total of 51.32%. This illustrates that studying the outcome of a previous match can somewhat inform your bet, although naturally some teams will adhere to this trend more closely than others.
Indeed, all but three teams experienced a run of at least three successive fixtures in which both teams scored, and every team experienced a streak of at least three matches in which at least one team failed to score.
Arsenal and Manchester United experienced the longest run for the former, both undergoing streaks of eight successive matches in which both teams scored, whereas Everton endured a league-high 12-game run for at least one team failing to find the back of the net.
Notably, despite the 51.32% league total, nine teams had a longer run of at least one team not scoring during the season than their longest streak of both teams scoring, whereas the inverse only applied to six (five had an equal longest run on the two counts).
Analysing the kick-off time for matches also reveals some interesting data. Again focusing on the 380 matches contested in the 2018-19 Premier League season, here are the percentage of matches in which both teams scored (organised by kick-off time as well as whether they were before or after the most common 15:00 kick-off on a Saturday).
For matches starting at the most common Saturday 15:00 kick-off, just 45.83% featured both teams scoring, notably beneath the overall league total of 51.32%. Instead, it was the matches either side of this slot that pulled the latter figure up, with both teams scoring in 55.22% of 67 matches before and 55.86% of 145 matches after.
The highest percentage of matches that featured both teams scoring was in the evening kick-offs that started at 19:30 or later. Of these 79 fixtures, both teams scored in 56.96%, a proportion of over 10% more than in the 15:00 kick-offs. This indicates that research on this front could highlight noteworthy stats which you might want to consider when placing your bet.
Optimism bias and Both Teams To Score betting
As with all betting, it is essential to not let biases cloud your judgement, particularly in a market such as this where a single bounce of the ball or a refereeing decision can directly lead to a goal being scored or disallowed.
The danger of optimism bias in BTTS betting is most commonly witnessed with regards to fixtures involving teams battling against relegation. The expectation is that as these are the weakest teams in the division (according to the league table), they will score fewer goals and are thus less likely to be involved in a fixture in which both teams find the back of the net.
However, recent history dictates that this is not the case. As of April 8, 2020, the bottom three in the Premier League are Bournemouth, Aston Villa and Norwich City. While the latter have only witnessed both teams score in 48.28% of their matches, Bournemouth and Villa have actually recorded stats above the league average with 55.17% and 64.29% respectively.
You can bet on Both Teams To Score and numerous other soccer markets on all of the major soccer leagues and competitions with Pinnacle.