Many punters place football accumulators, with many of those focussed on the favourites. Having analysed the past nine years of opening day accumulators, we ask the question, how often do they pay off?
What is the Benefit of an Accumulator?
Soccer accumulators are very popular bets for the casual better, with the short favourites often backed to win. So why do bettors bet on an accumulator over 1×2 or handicap markets?
The big allure for betting on an accumulator is the excitement from the substantial returns you stand to make from a small stake.
For example, a £10 accumulator on the 1×2 Premier League favourites to win each of the 2012/13 opening weekend fixtures would see a healthy £5,846 return – a profit of £5,836 – if it had come in.
What do the Historical Odds Suggest?
Looking at the past nine Premier League seasons’ opening day results shows that no accumulator backing the favourite in each game has won.
Two seasons – 2002/03 and 2008/09 – were just three results off, however, which would have netted punters a profit of £4,152.71 and £3,221.13 respectively.
Interestingly, out of the 90 games competed; exactly 50% (45 games) resulted in the favourite winning their opening day fixture. That means – on average – 5 of the 10 opening day Premier League season fixtures will be won by the favourites.
If the odds to win a favourite-based accumulator are too long for you, there are plenty of other accumulators that punters can benefit from.
By picking a couple of results that you believe are certainties (your “anchors”), you can potentially multiply your winners by combining these with each other or with more outlandish results. In the opening weekend, for example, betting on the two strongest favourites has paid off for 6 of the last 8 seasons.
That means if you were to place a £100 accumulator bet on Arsenal to beat Sunderland and Man City to beat Southampton this season, you would make a profit of £64 if the two results came in – not bad from betting on huge favourites.
Betting on the same two teams to win on the 1×2 market individually with a £50 stake per game would result in a profit of just £28.30, which is 56% less than betting on an accumulator.
Betting on a 10-game accumulator can win a lot more money if you can accurately calculate all results. For example, if you bet on the correct ten results from 2007/08 you would have won £336,052.75.
The danger, however, is that with each game added to an accumulator, you’re multiplying both your potential winnings and the margins of the bookmaker.
Why not try and maximise the chances of winning on an accumulator by using the Poisson Distribution system to help predict the outcome of the ten Premier League games?