Copa Libertadores 2021 predictions

Palmeiras vs. Atletico Mineiro predictions

Palmeiras	Draw	Atletico Mineiro
36.98%	32.03%	30.99%

The top two in the Brazilian league meet in this huge Libertadores semi-final. Both clubs have previously won the title, with Palmeiras lifting the trophy in 1999 and 2020 while Atletico Mineiro won in 2013 with Ronaldinho pulling the strings.

Both sides are filled with current or former South American international players but neither relies on talent alone to overcome their opponents. Palmeiras generally like to manage games carefully and reign in their dangerous, inventive attackers to ensure tactical stability; the Sao Paulo-based club would rather have a routine 2-0 win than concede in a more emphatic win.

Mineiro have added Spanish international Diego Costa in attack to play alongside the excellent Hulk but, again, despite high-quality forwards, they are a side built around control and efficiency at the right moment.

Both teams will look to establish control but they are also each blessed with an abundance of match winners. Pinnacle have the visitors Atletico Mineiro as the very slight favourites to win the opening leg in Sao Paulo. I think this is a slight surprise as I back Palmeiras’ incredible game management to secure them the victory but it is likely to be extremely close and almost certainly decided by an error or a moment of magic.

Palmeiras FC.

The reigning Libertadores champions will approach the semi-final stage with a great deal of confidence after a dominant 4-1 aggregate win against local rivals Sao Paulo. They have progressed professionally through the competition so far; they take the lead, control the game, limit the opposition, keep it tight, and then can put the seal on the victory as legs tire and the opposition opens up. This Palmeiras side have been there and done it all, and a combination of discipline and quality means they are perfectly suited for knockout football.

Route to the semi-final

As with the 2020 edition of the tournament, Palmeiras comfortably qualified from their group, showing some impressive attacking play before focusing on some more careful game management in the knockout rounds.

Palmeiras scored 20 goals in six games in their group and conceded seven. No other team scored more or had a better goal difference in the group stage. It was not as if they had an easy group either, facing 2020 Sudamericana finalists Defensa y Justicia, the always impressive Independiente del Valle, and Peruvian giants Universitario.

In the round of 16, they professionally overcame Universidad Catolica with 1-0 wins both at home and away before meeting crosstown rivals Sao Paulo in the quarter-final. In the first leg, they fell behind but Patrick de Paula scored an impressive equaliser to give them a valuable away goal ahead of the second leg. In the second leg, they took the lead early through Raphael Veiga. Palmeiras then kept it tight and as Sao Paulo opened themselves up chasing the vital equaliser, Palmeiras struck and scored two more goals late in the game to pick up an impressive win.

Professional management and ruthless efficiency in a high-pressure derby show why Palmeiras are fancied to retain this year’s Libertadores.

Potential goalscorers

Flying winger Rony is the current top scorer for Palmeiras in the Libertadores and he is the likely scorer for Palmeiras, while the number 9 position has been rotated between the unpredictable, dangerous Deyverson and the experienced and classy Luiz Adriano. Gustavo Scarpa also has a great history in the competition and he will look to support the attack from midfield. Inventive attacking midfielder Raphael Veiga isn’t prolific but is also more than capable of finding the back of the net from around the box.

Areas of weakness

Palmeiras often prefer to manage a narrow lead rather than put a game to bed when they have the advantage and this could potentially be their undoing. That said, there is probably no better team on the continent at controlling a game and they have an abundance of attacking talent at their disposal if they need to step things up.

Atletico Mineiro

2013 Copa Libertadores winners Atletico Mineiro were superb in the group stage but their performance in the round of 16 was slightly more concerning. Hulk’s superb attacking form has sparked a national team recall while Jefferson Savarino is among the very best wingers on the continent right now.

Route to the semi-final

Mineiro had the best group-stage performance in this year’s Libertadores. They opened with a disappointing draw against Venezuelan side Deportivo La Guaira but from then on didn’t put a foot wrong. They won all of their next five games, only conceding twice in those, to finish as the comfortable group winners.

In the round of 16, they were favourites against a slightly depleted Boca Juniors side but were actually very fortunate to advance. Boca Juniors were denied a goal in each leg following highly questionable refereeing decisions and Mineiro then won the tie in a penalty shootout. The Argentines were able to nullify that potent Mineiro attacking with organised and robust defending.

In the quarter-final, Mineiro faced the other Argentine giant River Plate and their performance was far more impressive. While River Plate probably have more overall quality than Boca this season, defensive solidity is not a strength of theirs and this was masterfully exploited by the Brazilians.

Ingacio Fernandez joined Mineiro from River in March this year and was very much the protagonist in the first leg. The Argentine scored just after the break to give the Brazilians a valuable lead in Buenos Aires before getting a red card just before the final whistle.

River Plate had to win in Brazil but their pursuit of a goal provided some opportunities for Mineiro on the break and they showed great efficiency in those moments. Argentine Matias Zaracho scored twice while the in-form Hulk scored his seventh Libertadores goal in 10 games.

Potential goalscorers

Hulk has been superb in this year’s Libertadores and his excellent form has earned him a recall to the Brazil national team. The incredible striker has shown great intelligence and composure as he has matured to add to his technical ability and power. He is the joint second-highest scorer in the competition behind Flamengo's Gabriel Barbosa.

Diego Costa is the obvious alternative choice for Atletico Mineiro. However, while he undoubtedly has the quality to be decisive at this level, questions remain as to how he will fit into the system. The Spanish international started and scored in Mineiro’s 3-0 win against Sport Recife in the league but will he be ready for a huge Libertadores semi-final? Will Mineiro be able to play two strikers in such a tight game? Will his combative side unsettle the opposition or get him in trouble with the famously strict South American officials? Only time will tell.

The quick and direct Venezuelan winger Jefferson Savarino is also in excellent scoring form and his work with Hulk has been key while Chilean Eduardo Vargas has scored a lot of goals this year too.

Areas of weakness

The game against Boca Juniors showed it is possible to limit the Brazilian’s attacking threat and that is something Palmeiras are experts at. Also, Palmeiras will rarely leave themselves unnecessarily exposed at the back and it will not be easy for Mineiro to quickly counter against the cautious Sao Paulo-based club. That said, Mineiro have shown that they don’t need many chances to win a game and their clinical attack could be decisive.

Finally, it will be interesting to see if they can fit Hulk and Diego Costa into the same team and still retain that energy and dynamism. Both are obviously amongst the very best in South America and are match-winners but is the tactical change a risk they will be willing to take?

What to expect from the game

This one is going to be tight. The teams are currently first (Mineiro) and second (Palmeiras) in the Brasileirao Serie A table, and both combine tactical caution with elite attacking quality. I expect Mineiro to create fewer efforts on goal but they have shown that they can be very efficient in finishing the chances they create.

The first leg will be edgy and tight, and I expect it to be a low-scoring match with neither side looking to lose; however, these teams have the quality to convert even a half chance. This will be two quality sides who respect the threat their opponent brings looking to take advantage of key moments.

Bet: Palmeiras vs. Atletico Mineiro odds

Flamengo vs. Barcelona SC predictions

Flamengo	Draw	Barcelona SC
79.14%	14.19%	6.67%

Rio de Janeiro giants Flamengo will be strong favourites against Guayaquil’s Barcelona SC in the second semi-final but there are reasons to believe the Ecuadorians could cause some issues for the 2019 Libertadores champions.

Flamengo’s attacking quality is staggering for a team based in South America. Gabriel Barbosa will lead the line, and he'll be looking to add to the 10 goals in 10 games he has scored so far in this year’s competition. Just behind him will be Uruguay international Giorgian de Arrascaeta and Brazil international Everton Ribeiro who, between them, scored five goals in this month’s World Cup qualifiers.

While central defender Fernando Leon and full-back Byron Castillo also made national team appearances this month, Barcelona do not have any comparable superstars and on paper are understandably the outsiders.

Pinnacle’s traders don’t think Barcelona have much chance in the opening leg, playing away in Rio de Janeiro, and while I fully understand the pessimistic outlook, I believe there are definitely ways this dynamic, energetic, Ecuadorian side can hurt their esteemed opponent.

Flamengo

2019 Copa Libertadores winners Flamengo have an incredible amount of quality throughout their side and their fans will be very confident of them comprehensively dispatching Barcelona, just as they did with Olimpia in the quarter-final where they earned an 9-2 aggregate victory.

Flamengo dominate possession and impose themselves on their opponents, with international players Bruno Henrique, De Arrascaeta, and Everton Ribeiro all combining effectively behind the prolific and clinical Gabriel Barbosa. Once they find their rhythm and get on top in a game, they can really enjoy themselves.

That said, defensively they are less convincing and with the full-backs pushing forward they can be susceptible to quick counter-attacks in wide areas. There is no doubt Flamengo will dominate possession but quick and efficient counter-attacks could potentially be their undoing.

Route to the semi-final

Flamengo were favourites to top a competitive Group G and they did so despite drawing their final three games. After three wins, perhaps there was a sense that he job was already done but this is a cause for concern. Also, despite scoring an impressive 14 goals, they conceded nine in their six games, including two at home against Ecuador’s LDU Quito and two away to Chilean minnows Union La Calera.

In the round of 16, they won a tight game away 1-0 in Argentina against Defensa y Justicia before turning on the style with a 4-1 win in the home leg.

They stepped things up even further in the quarter-final as they demolished Paraguayan side Olimpia 4-1 away before finishing the job in style at home with a 5-1 win. When it clicks for Flamengo it really clicks. Unlike the other Brazilian sides in the semi-finals, they are less focused on defensive discipline but when the attack functions so well, then perhaps this doesn’t matter.

Potential goalscorers

Gabriel Barbosa has decided to drop the ‘Gabigol’ moniker but is still amongst the very best on the continent when it comes to finding the back of the net. The classy Uruguayan De Arrascaeta is usually more of a creator but scored three times in three games for the national team recently. The quick yet elegant Bruno Henrique is always dangerous from the left side while the quick and intelligent Everton Ribeiro scored two goals in two games for the Brazilian national side recently.

Any and potentially even all of Flamengo’s front four could get a goal if things go their way and they continue their quarter-final form. Andreas Pereira has also joined the already remarkably strong squad on loan from Manchester United and could score too, breaking from midfield.

Areas of weakness

On paper, Flamengo should win this game but they have not controlled games in this year’s Libertadores in a way they perhaps should. International players Filipe Luis and Mauricio Isla are very talented attacking full-backs but are perhaps better going forward than they are defensively.

It is hoped that David Luiz will finally replace and potentially even provide an upgrade on Pablo Mari, who has been sorely missed since he moved to Arsenal last year. I am sure David Luiz will be an absolutely superb addition to the Flamengo side but there is the possibility that his first game could be one of his most difficult.

The classy, confident defender will generally find that he has far more time and space to build from the back in South America but Barcelona are one of the very best pressing sides on the continent. Adjusting to life back in Brazil with quick, tireless attackers smartly timing an effective press could force a mistake from the former international. This is a possibility but I think he clearly adds great quality and experience to the Flamengo defence.

Barcelona SC

Barcelona’s strong league start has slowed with Libertadores distractions but their fearless, dynamic, and energetic style means they are always happy to go toe-to-toe with the very best on the continent. The team presses from the front very effectively and are extremely quick to capitalise on an opposition’s mistake. They are an extremely dangerous side, capable of some expressive, high-quality football.

Flamengo will dominate possession but this Barcelona side will be quick to break and will force errors. The Brazilians will hope to set up around the visitors’ box and move the ball, wearing down their resistance. If Barcelona can keep organised, win possession in advanced areas, and break with numbers, they could hurt this Flamengo side.

Barcelona are understandably the outsiders but the two-time finalists have reasons to believe a shock could be possible if things go their way.

Route to the semi-final

Barcelona progressed from Group C in first place on 13 points, ahead of Boca Juniors, 2020 finalists Santos, and tricky Bolivian side The Strongest. The Ecuadorians only conceded three goals in a tough group and were only beaten once, when they played away against The Strongest in the altitude of Bolivia.

In the first leg of the round of 16, they lost 1-0 away to Velez Sarsfield but came back to win 3-1 at home with a dramatic late winner from Jonathan Perlaza. They will also take confidence from already overcoming Rio de Janeiro-based opposition in the knockout rounds, having beaten Fluminense over two legs in their quarter-final. Despite going down to 10 men they picked up a 2-2 draw away in Brazil with only a 95th-minute Fred penalty denying them the win. They then finished the job at home with a draw. It was strong, hard-fought two-legged victory but they will have to cut out the defensive mistakes if they are to overcome the more dangerous Flamengo.

Potential goalscorers

Barcelona have tended to start with Uruguayan Gonzalo Mastriani as the focal point of their attack. While the smart forward provides a good overall contribution, he has only scored once in 10 games in the Libertadores thus far and has only scored two goals in six games in the league. Mastriani is a useful player but his numbers do not really compare to Flamengo’s front four international players.

Adonis Preciado is a little more unpredictable but is explosive and capable of making something from nothing on the right side while Jonathan Perlaza provides a similarly quick and creative threat from the left. Attacking midfielders Gabriel Cortez and the very classy Ecuador international Damian Diaz are also capable of working an opening.

Areas of weakness

Barcelona are most dangerous when they win the ball high up the field and apply their smart, aggressive, and well-timed press. However, playing against a Flamengo side with so much attacking talent may mean the visitors sit deeper and commit fewer players forward. This will take away their most potent attacking threat and could draw pressure to their, at times, shaky defence.

It will be fascinating to see the extent to which Barcelona try to force an error from Flamengo. They may look to focus on the counter-attack, something they can do very effectively with their pace in wide areas, but breaking from deep will make their attack less potent and efficient.

Unlike the other semi-final sides, Barcelona do not have a prolific goalscorer who can win a game with one chance. Goals are spread across the team but they also often need a large number of chances to find the back of the net. They could be brave and go all out for that huge away goal but this will leave themselves open at the back and will their manager trust their exposed defence against the incredible Flamengo attack?

What to expect from the game

This game is going to be fascinating. Expect Flamengo to dominate possession and Barcelona to work hard and show impressive creativity. Barcelona have the ability to cause Flamengo problems but I am concerned that if they play to their strengths they will leave themselves too vulnerable at the back. I believe Flamengo's 9-2 destruction of Olimpia will have a huge psychological effect on the tie.

That said, if any team is going to back themselves against Flamengo then it may well be this Barcelona side. It should be very interesting and if Barcelona do go on the attack I believe they will score; the question is how many goals could that potentially cost them in return?

While I expect the all-Brazilian semi-final to be tight this one should provide more goals and attacking action.

Bet: Flamengo vs. Barcelona SC odds

Get the latest Copa Libertadores odds on this season's semi-final matches with Pinnacle.