UFC Predictions

UFC 295 was meant to feature the return of UFC royalty Jon Jones facing off against the greatest heavyweight of all time, Stipe Miocic.

Sadly, we won’t get to see this superfight until early next year, but we will still be treated to a huge double header of title fights at Madison Square Garden.

The main event now sees the return of Czech superstar, Jiří Procházka, coming back from a long layoff to try and reclaim his 205-pound title against hard-hitting Brazilian kick boxer and former Middleweight champion, Alex Pereira.

The co-main event is an interim Heavyweight title bout replacing the previous main event, featuring two of the best heavyweight prospects the UFC has ever seen. England’s star Tom Aspinall faces off against Russian powerhouse Sergei Pavlovich.

• Event: UFC 295
• Date: November 11, 2023
• Venue: Madison Square Garden, New York, United States

Analyzing the Procházka vs. Pereira odds

Pereira is the 1.787* favorite to pick up the victory, while Procházka is the underdog at 2.110*.

Procházka vs. Pereira: where is the value?

After one of the worst injuries Dana White claims he has ever seen, former Light Heavyweight champion Procházka makes his long-awaited return to the octagon this weekend.

He burst onto the UFC stage and won his first three fights via stoppage, claiming the title over Glover Teixeira in June 2022. However, that is the last time we saw the Czech fighter in action.

Procházka certainly gives fans value for money when they tune into his fights. Out of his 33 professional MMA fights, only two have gone the distance, with 25 of his 29 wins also coming via knockout.

Pereira gets a title shot after moving up to light heavyweight off the back of a victory over former champion, Jan Błachowicz. Pereira’s UFC story has mainly revolved around his long-standing rivalry with his former kickboxing challenger, Israel Adesanya. This move up in weight seems to have put that UFC trilogy on hold while he has his sights set on gold.

If this fight had taken place before the Procházka injury, one would imagine he would have entered it as the favorite. Technically, he never lost the UFC belt, and was stripped of it due to injury. He is now the underdog, but he looks like great value to recapture the title on Saturday.

Analyzing the Pavlovich vs. Aspinall odds

Tom Aspinall enters the fight as the 1.833* favorite, with Sergei Pavlovich available at odds of 2.040*.

Pavlovich vs. Aspinall: where is the value?

English MMA fans love a star to root for, and in Aspinall, that is exactly what they get. The heavy-hitting northerner has started his UFC career in dominant fashion, winning six of his first seven fights, with his only loss coming via injury 10 seconds into his fight against Curtis Blaydes.

Aspinall is a finishing specialist, with all 13 of his victories coming inside the distance, and given the record of Pavlovich as well, it is very hard to see this fight lasting 25 minutes on Saturday night.

Pavlovich started off his UFC career with a loss to UFC veteran Alistair Overeem, but has since put together a six-fight win streak, all coming via way of KO/TKO. He has cemented himself as an elite UFC heavyweight, but his title shot against Aspinall may be a step too far.

Aspinall entering the fight as favorite will not be a new experience for him. He is accustomed to the pressure at this point after fighting multiple times in front of home crowds, and the value here points to him being able to handle it once again in a close fight.

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