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Corners betting in soccer: Value in a lesser-known market

Poisson Distribution is a mathematical concept for translating mean averages into a probability for variable outcomes across a distribution. For example, if we know Manchester City average 1.7 goals per game, so by putting the Poisson Distribution formula tells us that this average equates to Manchester City&nbsp;scoring 0 goals 18.3% of the time, 1 goal 31% of the time, 2 goals 26.4% of the time and 3 goals 15% of the time.

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What is Expected Value?The amount a player can expect to win or lose if they were to place a bet on the same odds many times over, calculated through a simple equation multiplying your probability of winning with the amount you could win per bet, and subtracting the probability of losing multiplied by the amount lost per bet.A simple example of Expected Value (EV) put into practice -&nbsp;if you were

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<ul>
<li>Event:&nbsp;UFC 290</li>
<li>Date:&nbsp;July 8, 2023</li>
<li>Venue:&nbsp;T-Mobile Arena (Las Vegas, USA)</li>
</ul>

<h3>Alexander Volkanovski vs. Yair Rodríguez: Tale of the Tape</h3>

<table class=" article-table">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">
Alexander “The Great” Volkanovski
</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">
Fighter
</td>
<td>
Yair “El Pantera” Rodríguez
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">
34
</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">
Age
</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">
30
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">
168&nbsp;cm
</td>
<td>
Height
</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">
180&nbsp;cm
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">
65.6 kg
</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">
Weight
</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">
66 kg
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">
12-1
</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">
UFC record
</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">
10-2-1
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">
25-2
</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">
Overall MMA record
</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">
15-3-0 (1 NC)
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">
56%
</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">
Striking accuracy
</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">
46%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">
Champion
</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">
UFC ranking
</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">
Interim champion
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
 
Volkanovski returns to featherweight after failing to become a two-weight champion when he lost to lightweight champion Islam Makhachev at UFC 284.
Rodríguez won the interim featherweight title by beating Josh Emmett on the same night that Volkanovski lost to Makhachev.
<h3>Analysing the Volkanovski vs. Rodríguez&nbsp;odds</h3>
Volkanovski is the <a href="https://www.pinnacle.com/en/mixed-martial-arts/ufc/yair-rodriguez-vs-alexander-volkanovski/1574420100#period:0" target="_blank">1.265*</a> favourite, with his odds equating to an approximate 75.74% chance of victory. Rodríguez can be backed at <a href="https://www.pinnacle.com/en/mixed-martial-arts/ufc/yair-rodriguez-vs-alexander-volkanovski/1574420100#period:0" target="_blank">3.950*</a>, which translates to a 24.26% chance of winning.
<h3>Volkanovski vs. Rodríguez: where is the value?</h3>
Volkanovski has never lost at featherweight - his two career defeats come at welterweight and lightweight - and it’s unlikely that will change against Rodríguez.
However, Rodríguez definitely represents a stern test, having gone the distance with former champion Max Holloway before losing on decision, so backing over 4.5 rounds at <a href="https://www.pinnacle.com/en/mixed-martial-arts/ufc/yair-rodriguez-vs-alexander-volkanovski/1574420100#period:0" target="_blank">1.833*</a>could be worthwhile.
<div class="articleV2 unordered-list">
<ul>
<li><a style="color: #f50;" id="articleLink" href="https://www.pinnacle.com/en/mma/mma-betting-factors" target="_blank">MMA: Five factors to consider</a></li>
</ul>
</div>
<h3>Brandon Moreno vs. Alexandre Pantoja: Tale of the Tape</h3>

<table class=" article-table">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">
Brandon “The Assassin Baby” Moreno
</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">
Fighter
</td>
<td>
Alexandre “The Cannibal” Pantoja
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">
29
</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">
Age
</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">
33
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">
170&nbsp;cm
</td>
<td>
Height
</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">
165&nbsp;cm
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">
57 kg
</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">
Weight
</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">
57 kg
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">
9-3-2
</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">
UFC record
</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">
9-3
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">
21-6-2
</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">
Overall MMA record
</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">
25-5
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">
40%
</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">
Striking accuracy
</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">
48%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">
Champion
</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">
UFC ranking
</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">
#2
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
 
Moreno is making the first defence of his second stint as flyweight champion when he takes on Pantoja, who is fighting for a UFC title for the first time.
<h3>Analysing the Moreno vs. Pantoja&nbsp;odds</h3>
Moreno is the <a href="https://www.pinnacle.com/en/mixed-martial-arts/ufc/alexandre-pantoja-vs-brandon-moreno/1574420101#period:0" target="_blank">1.505*</a>&nbsp;favourite, with his odds equating to an approximate 64.04% chance of victory. Pantoja can be backed at <a href="https://www.pinnacle.com/en/mixed-martial-arts/ufc/alexandre-pantoja-vs-brandon-moreno/1574420101#period:0" target="_blank">2.680*</a>, which translates to a 35.96% chance of winning.
<h3>Moreno vs. Pantoja: where is the value?</h3>
Moreno should prove too much for challenger Pantoja, but he may have to rely on a decision. Of Moreno’s 29 fights, 13 have gone the distance, with five ending by knockout, and 11 via submission.
Pantoja has tasted defeat five times, and each of those have come by decision. Over 3.5 rounds is priced at <a href="https://www.pinnacle.com/en/mixed-martial-arts/ufc/alexandre-pantoja-vs-brandon-moreno/1574420101#period:0" target="_blank">1.581*</a>.
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UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodríguez and Moreno vs. Pantoja

Article

Inform your MMA predictions ahead of the Alexander Volkanovski vs. Yair Rodríguez and the Brandon Moreno vs. Alexandre Pantoja fights with insight, analysis, and odds from Pinnacle. Flyweight champion Brandon Moreno defends against Alexandre Pantoja. Will Moreno retain the belt, or will Pantoja become champion for the first time?