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Poisson Distribution is a mathematical concept for translating mean averages into a probability for variable outcomes across a distribution. For example, if we know Manchester City average 1.7 goals per game, so by putting the Poisson Distribution formula tells us that this average equates to Manchester City&nbsp;scoring 0 goals 18.3% of the time, 1 goal 31% of the time, 2 goals 26.4% of the time and 3 goals 15% of the time.

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What is Expected Value?The amount a player can expect to win or lose if they were to place a bet on the same odds many times over, calculated through a simple equation multiplying your probability of winning with the amount you could win per bet, and subtracting the probability of losing multiplied by the amount lost per bet.A simple example of Expected Value (EV) put into practice -&nbsp;if you were

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<ul>
<li>Event:&nbsp;UFC 289</li>
<li>Date:&nbsp;June 11, 2023</li>
<li>Venue:&nbsp;Rogers Arena (Vancouver, Canada)</li>
</ul>

<h3>Amanda Nunes vs. Irene Aldana: Tale of the Tape</h3>

<table class=" article-table">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">
Amanda “The Lioness” Nunes
</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">
Fighter
</td>
<td>
Irene “Robles” Aldana
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">
35
</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">
Age
</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">
35
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">
173&nbsp;cm
</td>
<td>
Height
</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">
175&nbsp;cm
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">
61 kg
</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">
Weight
</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">
62 kg
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">
15-2
</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">
UFC record
</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">
7-4
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">
22-5
</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">
Overall MMA record
</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">
14-6
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">
51%
</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">
Striking accuracy
</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">
39%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">
Champion
</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">
UFC ranking
</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">
#5
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
 
Amanda Nunes will look to build on her second stint as UFC Women's Bantamweight champion as she prepares to return to the octagon for the first time in nearly a year.
The Brazilian star will return to action for the first time in 11 months, with Mexican Irene Aldana standing in her way.
Nunes reclaimed the Bantamweight title from Julianna Peña, and the pair were set to complete their trilogy, only for the latter to suffer an injury. Aldana has since stepped in, and she will have to be at her very best to stop Nunes, who has ruled the Bantamweight and Featherweight divisions for the majority of her UFC career.
<h3>Analysing the Amanda Nunes vs. Irene Aldana&nbsp;odds</h3>

<table class=" article-table">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>
Nunes
</td>
<td>
Aldana
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
73.35%
</td>
<td>
26.65%
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Champion Nunes is the <a href="https://www.pinnacle.com/en/mixed-martial-arts/ufc/irene-aldana-vs-amanda-nunes/1573636819#period:0" target="_blank">1.308*</a> favourite for the clash, with her odds equating to an approximate 73.35% chance of victory. Challenger Aldana can be backed at <a href="https://www.pinnacle.com/en/mixed-martial-arts/ufc/irene-aldana-vs-amanda-nunes/1573636819#period:0" target="_blank">3.600*</a>, which translates to a 26.65% chance of winning. 
<h3 dir="ltr">Amanda Nunes vs. Irene Aldana: fighting styles analysed</h3>
As the #1 in the UFC women's pound-for-pound rankings, Nunes is still at the top of her game, and continues to dominate at the age of 35.
She is ferocious, powerful, and experienced, and she will have the reach advantage against Aldana. As one of the best female fighters, if not the best of all time, she can mix it up on both the inside and outside, and can alternate her powerful leg kicks with venomous punches.&nbsp;
<div class="articleV2 unordered-list">
<ul>
<li><a style="color: #f50;" id="articleLink" href="https://www.pinnacle.com/en/mma/mma-betting-factors" target="_blank">MMA: Five factors to consider</a></li>
</ul>
</div>
Nunes' ability to effectively switch to southpaw could also be crucial throughout the fight, as Aldana struggled against this stance during her defeat to Holly Holm. Should the fight go to the ground, Nunes' trip takedowns are something to watch out for, although Aldana's takedown defence is one of the best in the division.
Aldana, who will have the height advantage, is well-measured and has shown she can finish with composure. Her work to the body has allowed her to open up her opponents, and her killer instinct will be something to watch out for, if she gets Nunes in trouble.
Aldana's best chance of victory will definitely come from staying on her feet, but like Nunes, she has often shown she can mix it up on the canvas.
<h3>Amanda Nunes vs. Irene Aldana: where is the value?</h3>
Nunes' break from the octagon is far from ideal, and critics have questioned her desire at this stage of her career. Nunes has already broken numerous records, but her lifestyle has now changed, and she will need to prove she still has the burning desire to rule the women's rankings.
Aldana needs a career-best performance to prevail, but she has plenty of momentum behind her, and she too can make history this weekend. She is aiming to join Brandon Moreno, Alexa Grasso, and Yair Rodriguez as the fourth incumbent UFC champion from Mexico.
Both Aldana and Nunes have proven they can be deadly on their feet, and both have shown they can change a fight with one punch. But with their attributes well matched, this bout could go all the way, and backing over 2.5 rounds at <a href="https://www.pinnacle.com/en/mixed-martial-arts/ufc/irene-aldana-vs-amanda-nunes/1573636819#period:0" target="_blank">1.925*</a> looks like the way to go.
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