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Poisson Distribution is a mathematical concept for translating mean averages into a probability for variable outcomes across a distribution. For example, if we know Manchester City average 1.7 goals per game, so by putting the Poisson Distribution formula tells us that this average equates to Manchester City&nbsp;scoring 0 goals 18.3% of the time, 1 goal 31% of the time, 2 goals 26.4% of the time and 3 goals 15% of the time.

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<ul>
<li>Event:&nbsp;UFC 287</li>
<li>Date: April 8, 2023</li>
<li>Venue:&nbsp;Miami-Dade Arena (Miami, USA)</li>
</ul>

<h3>Alex Pereira&nbsp;vs.&nbsp;Israel Adesanya&nbsp;2: Tale of the Tape</h3>

<table class=" article-table">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">
Alex ‘Poatan’ Pereira
</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">
Fighter
</td>
<td>
Israel ‘The Last Stylebender’ Adesanya
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">
35
</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">
Age
</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">
33
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">
193 cm
</td>
<td>
Height
</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">
193 cm
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">
84 kg
</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">
Weight
</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">
84 kg
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">
4-0
</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">
UFC record
</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">
12-2
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">
7-1
</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">
Overall MMA record
</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">
23-2
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">
59%
</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">
Striking accuracy
</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">
50%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center;">
Champion
</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">
UFC ranking
</td>
<td style="text-align: center;">
#1
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
 
Alex Pereira is defending his middleweight title for the first time after beating Israel Adesanya to win the belt at UFC 281 in November 2022.
Pereira won the fight by TKO in round five, landing his third victory over Adesanya after the pair previously met twice under kickboxing rules.
Adesanya had previously never lost at middleweight. His only loss in MMA came against Jan Błachowicz for the light heavyweight title.
The New Zealander had made five defences of the middleweight title after unifying the division with victory over Robert Whittaker at UFC 243 in October 2019.
<h3>Analysing the Alex Pereira vs. Israel Adesanya 2 odds</h3>

<table class=" article-table">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>
Pereira
</td>
<td>
Adesany
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
45.17%
</td>
<td>
54.83%
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Champion Pereira is the <a style="color: #f50;" id="articleLink" href="https://www.pinnacle.com/en/mixed-martial-arts/matchups" target="_blank">2.220*</a> underdog, with his odds equating to an approximate 45.17% chance of victory. Challenger Adesanya can be backed at <a style="color: #f50;" id="articleLink" href="https://www.pinnacle.com/en/mixed-martial-arts/matchups" target="_blank">1.709*</a>, which translates to a 54.83% chance of winning. 
<h3 dir="ltr">Alex Pereira vs. Israel Adesanya 2: fighting styles analysed</h3>
Both fighters come from a kickboxing background and that should mean this contest will play out on the feet.
Adesanya attempted to utilise some grappling in the first meeting under MMA rules, feeling it would expose vulnerabilities in Pereira's skillset. However, that didn't pay off.
Adesanya finished his kickboxing career with a 75-5 record, and he is the more mobile of the two fighters, using his footwork to evade shots before launching a counter.
Pereira, who had a 33-7 kickboxing record, relies heavily on power, and his aggressive approach has helped him dominate opponents.
<div class="articleV2 unordered-list">
<ul>
<li><a style="color: #f50;" id="articleLink" href="https://www.pinnacle.com/en/mma/mma-betting-factors" target="_blank">MMA: Five factors to consider</a></li>
</ul>
</div>
<h3>Israel Adesanya vs. Alex Pereira 2: where is the value?</h3>
Adesanya is stepping into a middleweight contest as the challenger for the first time since April 2019, where he won the interim title at UFC 236.
<blockquote>Adesanya may look to finish early</blockquote>
The outcome of this fight depends largely on whether he can stay out of range for five rounds to avoid suffering another knockout defeat.
Pereira knows only one route to victory, and that comes from his power.
The Brazilian was patient when they met in November, securing his win late in the fifth round.
Adesanya did land some good shots in round one and looked to be on the verge of ending the fight early. However, Pereira was saved by the buzzer and came back strong as the fight progressed.
Mentally, this is going to be a big challenge for “The Last Stylebender”, who has lost three times to Pereira across MMA and kickboxing. There’s value in backing Pereira to retain the title at <a style="color: #f50;" id="articleLink" href="https://www.pinnacle.com/en/mixed-martial-arts/matchups" target="_blank">2.220*</a>.
<a href="https://bit.ly/3sbs8Ec" target="_blank">Sign up</a> at Pinnacle and bet with outstanding <a href="https://www.pinnacle.com/en/mixed-martial-arts/matchups" target="_blank">UFC 287 odds</a>.