Mar 14, 2023
Mar 14, 2023

UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3

Leon Edwards vs. Kamaru Usman betting preview and odds

Leon Edwards vs. Kamaru Usman stats

Leon Edwards vs. Kamaru Usman: where is the value?

UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3

Inform your MMA predictions ahead of the Leon Edwards vs. Kamaru Usman fight with insight, analysis, and odds from Pinnacle.

  • EventUFC 286
  • Date: March 18, 2023
  • VenueO2 Arena (London, England)

Leon Edwards vs. Kamaru Usman 3: Tale of the Tape

Leon Edwards


Kamaru Usman




183 cm


183 cm

77 kg


77 kg

12-2 (1 no contest)

UFC record


20-3 (1 no contest)

Overall MMA record



Striking accuracy



UFC ranking


Leon Edwards is defending his welterweight title for the first time after beating Kamaru Usman to win the belt at UFC 278 in August 2022.

Usman was the pound-for-pound number one ranked fighter when they met last year

He was heading for a defeat on points, but sealed a knockout win via a head kick late in the fifth and final round in Salt Lake City.

That was the second meeting between the pair, after Usman won the first contest via unanimous decision in December 2015.

Usman was the pound-for-pound number one ranked fighter when they met last year, after making five successful defences of his title.

Analysing the Leon Edwards vs. Kamaru Usman 3 odds





Champion Edwards is the 3.050* underdog, with his odds equating to an approximate 31.52% chance of victory. Challenger Usman can be backed at 1.404*, which translates to a 68.48% chance of winning.

Leon Edwards vs. Kamaru Usman 3: fighting styles analysed

Edwards has a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, but he is best-known for his striking ability. His perfectly timed head kick sealed a shock win over Usman to win the welterweight belt.

The Birmingham-based fighter has picked up seven wins by knockout, with a further 10 coming by decision. Only three have been courtesy of a submission.

Usman was a highly-accomplished wrestler in college, and was hoping to make the US Olympic team, but he fell short of that goal.

After stepping into mixed martial arts, Usman continued to rely heavily on wrestling, but his striking is also a huge asset.

Leon Edwards vs. Kamaru Usman 3: where is the value?

Usman was comfortably leading on all three of the judges' scorecards at UFC 278. Each of them gave Edwards round one, but scored Usman as the winner of rounds two, three and four.

The Nigerian Nightmare was 39-37 ahead, and Edwards required a stoppage in the fifth and final round to avoid defeat.

With just 56 seconds remaining, Edwards landed a sickening head kick and earned a stunning triumph to seal the title.

Home advantage can often be a big positive in the UFC, but it can also add some unwanted pressure, something Edwards has to try and manage when he steps out in London.

Usman is unlikely to be caught out by the same kick, and the expectation is that he'll rely heavily on wrestling to try and nullify Edwards' stand-up game.

Ultimately, it's hard to see beyond Usman grinding out a victory to reclaim the title via decision, so it’s worth backing over 4.5 rounds at 1.540*.

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