One of the longest-running feuds in the history of the UFC will be settled on March 5 when welterweight rivals Colby Covington and Jorge Masvidal meet in Las Vegas.
Event: UFC 272
Date: March 5, 2022
Venue: T-Mobile Arena (Las Vegas, USA)
Covington vs. Masvidal: Tale of the tape
|
Colby "Chaos" Covington |
Fighter |
Jorge "Gamebred" Masvidal |
|
34 |
Age |
37 |
|
180 cm |
Height |
180 cm |
|
76 kg |
Weight |
71 kg |
|
11-3 |
UFC record |
12-8 |
|
16-3 |
Overall MMA record |
35-15 |
|
38% |
Striking accuracy |
48% |
|
#1 |
UFC ranking |
#6 |
Covington and Masvidal used to be inseparable, they were best friends and teammates at American Top Team. However, as the pair started to emerge as title contenders, that relationship fell by the wayside. They have exchanged plenty of verbal blows over the past two years and Saturday’s meeting is set to provide fireworks.
Covington, ranked number one in the welterweight division, is 1-2 from his last three trips to the octagon with both of those losses coming at the hands of champion Kamaru Usman. He did beat Tyron Woodley in between those defeats and is looking to get back to winning ways this weekend.
Masvidal is riding a two-fight losing streak with both of his losses also coming against Usman at UFC 251 and UFC 261. After taking the champion to five rounds and losing via decision in 2020, Masvidal suffered a KO loss when they met for the second time in 2021.
Analysing the Covington vs. Masvidal odds
Covington is the favourite at 1.294*, to pick up a win at the T-Mobile Arena, equating to an approximate 74.09% chance of victory. Masvidal can be backed at 3.700*, translating to a 25.91% likelihood of victory.
Covington vs. Masvidal: Fighting styles analysed
This weekend’s main event at UFC 272 is a true clash of styles with wrestler Covington taking on striker Masvidal.
Covington was an NCAA Championship wrestler before transitioning into MMA in February 2012. He won his first eight professional MMA fights, thanks largely to his wrestling skills with four of those wins coming via submission. “Chaos” continued to hone his wrestling skills at American Top Team, spending nine years as part of the set-up until he moved on to MMA Masters gym in 2020.
The 34-year-old has worked on his striking but he doesn’t possess a huge amount of power, which is represented by the fact he has only picked up four victories by KO. Just 25% of his victories have come via KO/TKO with 25% by submission and 50% courtesy of a decision.
Meanwhile, Masvidal is an out-and-out brawler with 16 victories via knockout and just two wins coming courtesy of submission. The outcome of Saturday’s contest will overwhelmingly depend on who can impose their style most effectively. Masvidal can take some confidence from his 75% takedown defence accuracy and he’ll need to rely on that to come through successfully.
Covington vs. Masvidal: Where is the value?
Saturday’s main event is likely to be a great spectacle as fans finally get to see the warring duo finally fight it out. But an upset is unlikely as Masvidal appears to be on the decline and is possibly not quite cut out to compete at the highest level anymore.
Masvidal will be at his most dangerous in the opening two rounds.
The momentum he built courtesy of three successive wins against Darren Till, Ben Askren, and Nate Diaz is long gone and Covington should be able to control this contest. However, Masvidal will be at his most dangerous in the opening two rounds and Covington will need to avoid being drawn into a slugfest.
If Covington manages to stay out of trouble early on, then he is likely to shoot for takedowns in the Championship rounds. However, Covington’s lack of power suggests he won’t be able to end this one early so the best value appears to lie in a victory via decision.
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