Feb 25, 2017
Feb 25, 2017

NFL Discussion Day: Expert insight ahead of the Super Bowl

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NFL Discussion Day: Expert insight ahead of the Super Bowl
Two weeks ago, the world was tuning into Super Bowl LI. To celebrate one of the biggest events in the sporting calendar, Pinnacle hosted a Super Bowl Discussion Day on Twitter with a panel of experts, including our leading NFL trader, answering all kinds of questions about Super Bowl betting. Read on for the insightful advice that was shared.

What is a Discussion Day?

If you don’t follow Pinnacle on Twitter already or haven’t read the recap of our soccer betting Discussion Day, you may be wondering what a Discussion Day is. In short, it is another example of Pinnacle doing something that no other bookmaker does - educating bettors. 

A Discussion Day occurs once a month and is about a particular sport or betting theme - giving bettors a chance to ask any questions they might have. Using expert writers, professional bettors and even Pinnacle traders, we aim to answer every question and discuss any topic that will empower our followers’ betting.

What did bettors want to know?

NFL bettors will know there are multiple factors to consider when betting in the regular season - and perhaps even more so for the Super Bowl. During our Discussion Day, everything from how Pinnacle sets lines, to where bettors can find value was covered.

The importance of certain players

The beauty of the Super Bowl is that it can be decided by one piece of magic from an individual player or an unforgettable mistake from someone else. The quarter back often takes centre stage in the NFL and plenty of our followers wanted to know what value, in terms of odds, could be placed on the head of Tom Brady and Matt Ryan.


As you would expect, both players have a major influence on their team’s odds - Tom Brady’s absence would have moved the line from Atlanta +3 to Atlanta -3.5. If Matt Ryan were unable to play, the New England Patriots would have moved from a 3 point favourite to double-digit favourites.

What market should you bet on?

There’s a big difference between understanding the types of bet that are available and what markets you should bet on. We’ve previously explained the basic NFL bet types in an article, but several of our followers wanted to know how to find the value in these markets.


The aim of the game is to find discrepancies in odds - this could be in various markets, including Money Line, Handicap or Totals. The Super Bowl also offers a whole host of Specials markets, but as advised in our analysis of Super Bowl coin toss betting, some of these are merely bet on for fun.

Our articles on using Pythagorean theorem and yards per play rankings to form a betting strategy highlight how bettors can profit from the Handicap market when betting on the NFL and Super Bowl.

Using stats to your advantage

Pinnacle has always promoted an analytical approach to betting - using stats and strategies is one of the main methods that bettors can use to improve results. There are countless statistics available to NFL bettors for both individual players and teams, but some struggle to pinpoint which stats are the most useful in terms of betting.


Yards per play rankings and net yards per pass attempt against opposition defence allowance are examples of more common statistic used for the basis of betting strategies. How often a team wins or loses close games and their Over/Under record can also be very informative.

Other factors to consider

Most bettors are aware of the impact home field advantage (HFA) can have on NFL betting. However, some of these bettors have struggled to quantify the value of HFA during the playoffs and in the build up to the Super Bowl.


It is important to note that during the playoffs, divisional home teams have a bye week - this means HFA doesn’t just apply to the venue the teams play in but the amount of rest each side has before playoff games.

As for the Super Bowl itself, being held at a neutral venue meant the potential HFA effect for either New England Patriots or Atlanta Falcons was very limited. The venue was also at the centre of other questions we were asked during the Discussion Day.


Weather is another external factor that any sharp NFL bettor will analyse before betting. Once again, the Super Bowl venue (the NRG Stadium) reduced any potential effect this could have - this time because it has a roof that can be opened or closed depending on the weather. It is still always worth thinking about what the wind speed might mean for NFL betting though.

The NFL season might be over, but at least there's plenty of time to refine your betting strategies and learn as much as you can before it all starts again. Want to learn more about NFL betting? Follow Pinnacle on Twitter.

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