Jan 11, 2023
Jan 11, 2023

NFL Playoff predictions - NFC Championship: Will the Philadelphia Eagles make it to Super Bowl LVII?

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NFC Championship analysis

NFL Playoff predictions - NFC Championship: Will the Philadelphia Eagles make it to Super Bowl LVII?

There’s not much to choose from, in terms of performance, between the majority of the teams in the NFL, which could be the reason why there’s significant changes in the playoff list from last season and no clear top team that the rest are looking up to. It makes for an exciting playoff atmosphere with every team having the opportunity to win the Vince Lombardi Trophy.

With the list of teams set, football data expert Ben Brown has used current Pinnacle pricing plus data points from PFF’s suite of betting tools to see what teams may offer value in various betting markets. Below he evaluates how each of them can win the Super Bowl 2023 and the best bets to make along the way.

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+170 [2.700]* to win the NFC (37.0%)

+500  [6.000]* to win the Super Bowl (16.7%)

PFF: 35.0% chance to win the NFC, 15.0% chance to win the Super Bowl

Philadelphia Eagles' path to winning Super Bowl LVII

Philadelphia may have limped into the number one seed during the final month of the regular season, but their time off should allow them to be almost fully healthy for their first playoff game in the Divisional round. 

The betting markets don’t seem overly impressed as they are barely favoured ahead of the 49ers to both win the NFC and also the Super Bowl on Pinnacle. The reasoning is odd, since they very much have a better quarterback situation than San Francisco, and can match them at almost every other position from a talent perspective. 

Given their additional period of rest, Philadelphia look like the team to buy into, but since bookmakers might be short on their spread as well, they look like the perfect candidate to roll in multiple Single Money Line bets as they move toward the Super Bowl. If they are close to a pick ‘em or slight underdog at home against San Francisco, then this will be by far the best way to play Philadelphia in the playoffs.  

Best bet(s): Rollover Money Line bets on each Eagles playoff game 


+190 [2.900]* to win the NFC (34.5%)

+501 [5.980]* to win the Super Bowl (16.6%)

PFF: 24.0% to win the NFC, 12.0% to win the Super Bowl

San Francisco 49ers' path to winning Super Bowl LVII

With an 11-6 ATS [Against the Spread] record, the 49ers are quickly becoming a popular betting market target as we enter the playoffs. Bookmakers seem to have adjusted to that as they have the exact same odds as the Eagles to win the Super Bowl and only a 2.5% shorter implied probability to win the NFC. 

Their roster is as talented as any team in the NFL, but the question that will continue to be asked is how far can they go with rookie quarterback Brock Purdy. Over six games, he has had twice as many turnover-worthy plays as big-time throws, and only 39.8% of his throws have been past the sticks. The 49ers have a high yards-after-catch offence, but one or two bad plays in crucial situations could completely derail their playoff hopes. More than any other team, that is the scenario to be most afraid of for the 49ers. 

Since the 49ers are so popular from a betting standpoint right now, they look like a team to clearly fade because if they do go behind in a game, they may not have the quality at the quarterback position to bring them all the way back. 

Best bet(s): None

NFL Insights: 2023 Championship game preview 


+1201 [13.020]* to win the NFC (7.7%)

+3000 [31.010]* to win the Super Bowl (3.2%)

PFF: 10.0% chance to win the NFC, 4.0% chance to win the Super Bowl

Minnesota Vikings' path to winning Super Bowl LVII

Despite being the number three seed and hosting a home game in the Wild Card round (againt the New York Giants), the Vikings very much look like the team no one believes in. They were -4 favourites against the same Giants team three weeks ago and after winning but not covering the handicap, find themselves as the -3- or -2.5 point favourites this weekend. 

The Vikings have allowed the 13th-most EPA per pass play this season.

The reasons are obvious, as the Vikings haven’t had a convincing victory since Week 1. Also, despite having quality players in defence, they have allowed the 13th-most EPA per pass play this season and are mid-range for every defensive category because of a reliance on big-play turnovers. The betting market and bettors both project their luck to run out, but that actually is giving us a slight buying opportunity on the Vikings. 

Yes, they are fortunate and lucky to be in the situation they are in, but they do also have some players that create overload opportunities in the play. So it's odd that they are priced as just the fifth-most likely team to win the NFC despite being the third seed. It’s not a comfortable feeling, but the Vikings are so maligned that they actually are the only team to offer value at both their Conference and Super Bowl odds, based on PFF simulation.  

Best bet(s): Vikings to win the Super Bowl at +3000 [31.010]*


+1001 [11.020]* to win the NFC (9.1%)

+2600 [27.010]* to win the Super Bowl (3.7%)

PFF: 8% to win the NFC, 3% to win the Super Bowl

Tampa Bay Buccaneers' path to winning Super Bowl LVII

It wasn’t the most impressive regular season performance from Tom Brady, but he once again finds himself as a division winner hosting a home game in the Wild Card round of the playoffs. The issue with the team’s lacklustre regular season performance, that saw them barely secure a playoff berth in a weak division with a barely above-average win-loss record, is that they are forced to take on the best of the Wild Card teams. 

Dallas are the much more impressive team in their Wild Card matchup – they are third in PFF’s offensive rankings and first in their defensive rankings. The spread indicates how much the betting market buys into the Cowboys as the favourites, with the expectation that the Buccaneers will be the heavy underdogs in every game they get to play in the playoffs. 

If Tom Brady and the Buccaneers were going to get better and turn their season around, it seems like they would have already shown that ability throughout the latter half of the regular season. Their only positive situation is when they’ve come back from a two-touchdown lead, which is once again where they will most likely find themselves in their Wild Card matchup against Dallas. 

Given the uninspiring performance over the entire season, they are a team to fade with the betting market still overvaluing what Tom Brady and the rest of the Buccaneers offence brings to the table. With the issues along their offensive line, expect Micah Parsons and his fellow Cowboys to secure the win in this game early, and not allow Brady to pull off another historic come-from-behind victory. 

Best bet(s): Buccaneers +3 against the Cowboys -119 [1.840]*


+550 [6.440]* to win the NFC (15.4%)

+1300 [14.000]* to win the Super Bowl (7.1%)

PFF: 15.0% to win the NFC, 7.0% to win the Super Bowl

Dallas Cowboys' path to winning Super Bowl LVII

Dallas stumbled in the last few weeks of their regular season, with Dak Prescott having his second-lowest graded game of the season in their Week 18 loss to Washington. He ranks 21st in PFF grade this season among quarterbacks with at least 300 dropbacks and has the ninth-highest turnover-worthy play percentage. 

Dak Prescott ranks 21st in PFF grade this season among quarterbacks with at least 300 dropbacks.

Despite their offensive struggles, Dallas have the third-best odds to win the NFC and are favourites to win by a field goal on the road against Tampa Bay in the Wild Card round.

Their high-end range can match anyone in the NFC, but there is quite a bit of risk in buying into the Cowboys, especially with a completely remade offensive line and their overall struggles recently. Dallas are once again looking like a one-and-done team based on PFF’s projections and could be the best team to stay away from in these playoffs. 

Best bet(s): None 


+1997 [20.980]* to win the NFC (4.8%)

+5300 [54.020]* to win the Super Bowl (1.9%)

PFF: 3.0% to win the NFC, 1.0% to win the Super Bowl

New York Giants' path to winning Super Bowl LVII

Brian Daboll deserves coach-of-the-year consideration, given the situation he has navigated in his first season in charge of the New York Giants. He made Daniel Jones into an above-average quarterback and navigated a disastrous injury situation at the wide receiver position to get his team into the playoffs.  

New York actually improved their outlook as they were the 4.5 point underdogs three weeks ago against the Minnesota Vikings and now sit as a field goal underdog or shorter for Sunday’s Wild Card game against them. 

Pulling off the upset in this game will position them to take on their divisional rivals, the  Eagles, a team they match up fairly well against. Their odds are still a little short based on PFF projections but it’s possible that the Giants could do well in the playoffs. 

Best bet(s): None


+3001 [31.030]* to win the NFC (3.2%)

+7500 [76.030]* to win the Super Bowl (1.3%)

PFF: 1.0% to win the NFC, 0.5% to win the Super Bowl

Seattle Seahawks' path to winning Super Bowl LVII

After ranking as the third-best passing quarterback through the first eight weeks of the season, Geno Smith hit a disastrous patch and ranks 24th in PFF passing grade rankings since Week 8. Seattle have talent at key positions, but need Geno Smith to quickly return to his early-season form if they want any chance of pulling off the upset against the 49ers. They are currently the 11-point underdogs in their Wild Card round matchup.

There is some hope, given the familiarity of their opponent, so scoring an easy cover with the Seahawks at +11 looks like the only way to bet on them as the seventh seed. 

Best bet(s): Seahawks +11 against the 49ers -127 [1.760]*

Feel informed and ready to back Ben’s best bets? Take advantage of Pinnacle's unrivalled NFL odds. You can also read Ben's AFC Championship playoff preview right here and you follow him on Twitter too (@PFF_BenBrown). 

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