May 30, 2023
May 30, 2023

NFL 2023: The Way Too Early Preview

NFL 2023 preview

Who will win Super Bowl LVIII?

NFL 2023 Futures odds at Pinnacle

NFL 2023: The Way Too Early Preview

The 2023 NFL schedule release set off a chain of events, and NFL game action feels closer with each passing day. It’s never too early to get a jump on the Futures market, and Pinnacle offers markets on Win Totals, as well as the Divisional, Conference, and Super Bowl Winners.

Taking some cues from the betting market, we can attempt to assess how the order of games could impact a team's record in 2023, and highlight the most difficult stretches of each franchise’s schedule.

We do this by calculating a moving average of each opponent’s preseason Elo ranking, whilst factoring in rest differentials and net travel distances.

Below is a box plot of each team’s opposing Elo for every game of the 2023 regular season, sorted by the team’s mean Elo rating faced. The box shows the teams' first-quartile opposing Elo, median opposing Elo, and third-quartile opposing Elo.

This top-level view gives an initial idea of each team's strength of schedule in 2023. It highlights how difficult certain schedules will be, and how they may impact outcomes in the Win Total market.

First, let’s take a closer look at each team’s PFFELO power ranking. We can then examine the most difficult stretches, along with some key new additions and losses that could make-or-break a successful season.

1. Kansas City Chiefs

PFFELO Rating: 1671

Biggest Offseason Addition: RT - Jawaan Taylor

Biggest Offseason Loss: LT - Orlando Brown Jr.

Toughest Schedule Stretch: Weeks 14-18

Kansas City hosted their fifth straight AFC Championship game in 2022, whilst also winning their second Lombardi Trophy in the same year.

After a tumultuous 2021 by Patrick Mahomes’ standards – where he finished only 11th in Pro Football Focus (PFF) grade – Mahomes silenced any concerns by leading the NFL in PFF grade in 2022.

On the defensive side of the ball, rookie cornerbacks (CB) Trent McDuffie and Joshua Williams had terrific seasons – ranking sixth and 20th, respectively, among corners in PFF grade preventing separation. The team also added Charles Omenihu and Felix Anudike-Uzomah as defensive ends to solidify their pass rush capabilities.

This might just be the best defensive line-up of the Mahomes era. With Mahomes and Justin Reid at the helm and an emerging defence, Over 11.5 wins at -138* on Pinnacle seems like as safe a bet as any.

2. Philadelphia Eagles

PFFELO Rating: 1624

Biggest Offseason Addition: RB - Rashaad Penny / D’Andre Swift

Biggest Offseason Loss: CB - C. J. Gardner-Johnson

Toughest Schedule Stretch: Weeks 11-15

Fresh off a Super Bowl berth, Philadelphia again find themselves as the favourites to repeat as NFC champions, with the shortest odds to win the NFC at +330*.

This is despite an offseason plagued by turnover, where the team lost five starters on defence - including stud cornerback C. J. Gardner-Johnson.

The offence remains largely unchanged from the unit that led the NFC in points last season, featuring receivers AJ Brown and Devonta Smith – who are sixth and 16th in PFF grade, respectively – and breakout quarterback (QB) Jalen Hurts, who finished fourth in PFF grade last season.

The talent for the Eagles is undeniable, but with expectations running sky high, little room for the offence to improve upon last year, an aging secondary, and a defence lacking in continuity, I won’t be betting on them.

3. Buffalo Bills

PFFELO Rating: 1616

Biggest Offseason Addition: TE Dalton Kincaid

Biggest Offseason Loss: LB Tremaine Edmunds

Toughest Schedule Stretch: Weeks 9-12

Flashback to October last year and the Buffalo Bills were the clear team to beat, with Josh Allen leading an explosive offence, and Von Miller taking charge of a ferocious pass rush. However, following injuries to both players, the Bills began to falter.

The Bills’ pass rush, which was top five in generating quick pressures with Miller, quickly became a bottom unit without him.

On offence, Allen struggled a bit down the stretch, and the Bills lacked results from secondary offensive weapons. Gabe Davis disappointingly finished as the 60th wide receiver (WR) ranked by PFF.

With still the third best odds to win the AFC +517, expectations are certainly high for the Bills. However, with Miller remaining on the shelf, the team still lacking in secondary weapons, and playing in a tough AFC East, I will be selling them Under 10.5 wins at +117*.

4. San Francisco 49ers

PFFELO Rating: 1612

Biggest Offseason Addition: DI Javon Hargrave

Biggest Offseason Loss: CB Emmanuel Moseley

Toughest Schedule Stretch: Weeks 8-13

San Francisco might not know who will be playing QB in Week 1, but questions surrounding QBs didn’t stop the team from producing last year.

Brock Purdy led the team on its best stretch, going 7-0 before he tore his ulnar collateral ligament in the NFC Championship game.

The offensive supporting cast remains intact with an impressive line-up of dynamic playmakers, including Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, and Christian McCaffrey.

Each of these players have ranked in the top 30 in the NFL in Yards After the Catch per Reception listings over the last couple of years.

Regardless of who is playing QB, with such dynamic talent on both sides of the ball, combined with a weak NFC West, the Niners are in a clear tier of their own in the division, and are an attractive bet to win it at -175*.

5. Cincinnati Bengals

PFFELO Rating: 1590

Biggest Offseason Addition: OT Orlando Brown

Biggest Offseason Loss: S Jessie Bates

Toughest Schedule Stretch: Weeks 8-11

In 2021, Joe Burrow and the Bengals were explosive en route to the Super Bowl. However, they lacked the consistency of an elite team, and Burrow’s sack problems stalled many Bengals drives.

These worries were forgotten in 2022, as the Bengals finished third in Success Rate – the rate at which a team generates plays that increase their scoring chances – and Burrow cut down on his Time to Throw, getting rid of the ball at the second quickest rate in the league, leading to a decreased sack rate.

The defence lost star safety Jessie Bates, but otherwise remained intact as a solid unit that finished eighth in defensive Expected Points Added (EPA) and first in 'Perfectly Covered Plays'.

With a burgeoning MVP candidate in Burrow, and what looks like a solid defence, I am buying the Bengals as the class of the AFC North at +130*.

6. Dallas Cowboys

PFFELO Rating: 1565

Biggest Offseason Addition: WR Brandin Cooks / CB Stephon Gilmore

Biggest Offseason Loss: TE Dalton Schultz

Toughest Schedule Stretch: Weeks 14-17

2022 was another disappointing season for the Cowboys, losing once again to the Niners early in the playoffs. The team parted ways with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and coach Mike McCarthy vowed to run the ball more often.

McCarthy says he wants to run the ball more, but what Dallas has actually done during the offseason suggests the opposite – not signing a running back (RB) behind Pollard, and drafting 5'5" Deuce Vaughn who is not exactly a ‘wear-them-out’ kind of back.

The team also added to its WR core with Brandin Cooks who, despite his age, had the sixth best PFF separation grade.

If they build upon their ferocious pass rush and dynamic passing game, in a weak NFC, Dallas could be arguably the best team in the division, a bet I’ll be making with juicy +600odds.

7. New York Jets

PFFELO Rating: 1548

Biggest Offseason Addition: Aaron Rodgers

Biggest Offseason Loss: Sheldon Rankins

Toughest Schedule Stretch: Weeks 1-4

It’s been 15 years since the Jets took on an aging Packers gunslinger, but they’ll be hoping for better results this time around. Rodgers’ 75.9 PFF passing grade was a step back from his previous years, but was still 10th best in the NFL last season.

Should Rodgers find his form from a couple years ago, coupled with the ferocious defence that retained most of its starters from last year, the Jets have as much upside as any team in the NFL.

8. Baltimore Ravens

PFFELO Rating: 1531

Biggest Offseason Addition: WR Odell Beckham Jr.

Biggest Offseason Loss: CB Marcus Peters

Toughest Schedule Stretch: Weeks 15-17

Despite the offseason rumours that Lamar Jackson had played his last snap with the Ravens, they’re back at it again, trying to rediscover the magic of the 2019 team that led the NFL in wins.

Jackson has returned, the offence is sure to look different this year, as the team has invested heavily in WRs, bringing in OBJ and drafting Zay Flowers in the first round. The Ravens also made the decision to dismiss long-time coordinator Greg Roman, who was known for his ability to maximize a QB’s rushing capabilities.

After losing his last two seasons to injury, and now that he will be playing without Roman, it is fair to question if Jackson will continue to rush at such an elevated rate.

His 72.3 passing grade was middle of the road last year (16/34), but will a more talented receiving cast elevate Jackson and the Ravens’ offence? Maybe it’s best to take a wait and see approach.

9. Detroit Lions

PFFELO Rating: 1516

Biggest Offseason Addition: CB C.J. Gardner-Johnson

Biggest Offseason Loss: RB: D’Andre Swift

Toughest Schedule Stretch: Unknown

Projected by many to be among the worst teams in 2022, the Lions took a massive leap forward and finished the season with a top 10 PFFELO rating.

Perhaps the central question entering 2023 for the Lions is - will their offensive success from 2022 translate over to this season?

Last year, Jared Goff was dominant from a clean pocket, and strong against bad defences (top five in EPA), but struggled when the pressure was on.

If everything goes well for the Lions, this could be the year they retake the NFC North Crown. However, with a career-long middling QB and high expectations, it wouldn’t be shocking to see things go south in the Motor City either.

10. Miami Dolphins

PFFELO Rating: 1511

Biggest Offseason Addition: CB Jalen Ramsey

Biggest Offseason Loss: TE Mike Gesicki

Toughest Schedule Stretch: Weeks 7-9

The Dolphins skidded to the finish line last year after a promising season went downhill with Tua Tagovailoa’s concussion.

However, their poor finish should not negate the year the Dolphins were having when the QB was healthy, since Tua had the fifth highest PFF passing grade.

The defence is loaded with stars, including trade acquisition Jalen Ramsey, who will form one of the CB duos along with Xavien Howard. Second-year EDGE Jalen Phillips ended last season with the fifth best PFF pass rush grade, and is a legitimate candidate for defensive player of the year this time around.

While Tua’s injury history is something to consider, the upside is undeniable on both sides of the ball, and I am cautiously optimistic about the 2023 Dolphins.

11. Jacksonville Jaguars

PFFELO Rating: 1511

Biggest Offseason Addition: WR Calvin Ridley

Biggest Offseason Loss: OT Jawaan Taylor

Toughest Schedule Stretch: Weeks 13-15

At the midway point last season, Jacksonville appeared destined for another disappointing year, with questions manifesting around Trevor Lawrence and the direction of the franchise.

However, following a 6-1 close to the season, the narrative completely changed, and it looked like Trevor Lawrence was living up to the bill as the best QB prospect since Andrew Luck.

Over the second half of the season, from a clean pocket – one of the more stable metrics year over year – Lawrence came second in PFF grade, and third in EPA. Adding Calvin Ridley to the fold only further strengthens the case for Lawrence and the Jags.

In perhaps the weakest division in football, the Jaguars’ -153* is one of my favourite offseason Futures at the moment.

12. New Orleans Saints

PFFELO Rating: 1507

Biggest Offseason Addition: QB Derek Carr

Biggest Offseason Loss: DE Marcus Davenport

Toughest Schedule Stretch: Weeks 10-12

The default NFC South favourites, the Saints are looking to get back into the playoffs for the first time since 2020, and have spent big money to acquire former Raiders QB Derek Carr.

Chris Olave broke onto the scene finishing as the 15th best PFF grade at WR in his rookie year, and Rashid Shaeed had the third best PFF separation grade and second highest Yards per Route Run.

If Michael Thomas regains 85% of his previous form, this WR unit can be among the best in the game.

The interior of the offensive line is still very weak and the defence is ageing, but this should be by far the best passing game in the division, and that’s the most important thing to look at with the way the game is played in 2023.

With the easiest projected schedule by our Elo rankings, I’m buying the Saints to win the South at +127*.

13. Green Bay Packers

PFFELO Rating: 1502

Biggest Offseason Addition: DE Lukas Van Ness

Biggest Offseason Loss: QB Aaron Rodgers

Toughest Schedule Stretch: Weeks 11-13

And so the Jordan Love era begins in Green Bay, following a tumultuous last few years with Aaron Rodgers.

Love played only 26 snaps in 2022, and his college numbers are from four years ago, so there is only a small sample to work with to project the Packers’ new QB, along with their offence.

The defence will be looking to bounce back from a disappointing 2022, and Lukas Van Ness ranks at #13 overall to help as an EDGE, especially while Pro Bowl EDGE Rashan Gary recovers from his anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury.

Love is an unknown at this point in his career, and I will be laying off the Packers as a result.

14. Cleveland Browns

PFFELO Rating: 1502

Biggest Offseason Addition: DE Ze'Darius Smith

Biggest Offseason Loss: DE Jadeveon Clowney

Toughest Schedule Stretch: Weeks 1-5

Which Deshaun Watson will appear for the Browns in 2023? Will it be the Watson of 2022, whose 55.3 PFF grade was fourth worst among QBs? Or will it be the Watson of 2018-2020, who averaged an 85.3 PFF grade and was eighth in EPA/Play?

The defence is full of talent with four players in the top 15 of PFF grades at their positions, but has failed to live up to its potential, and was eighth worst by EPA/Play last season.

Like the Packers, there is too much uncertainty regarding QBs for me to bet on them at this point.

15. Las Vegas Raiders

PFFELO Rating: 1501

Biggest Offseason Addition : QB Jimmy Garoppolo

Biggest Offseason Loss: QB Derek Carr

Toughest Schedule Stretch: Weeks 2-4

The Raiders appear overvalued at this mid-tier ranking, especially considering their schedule is one of the most difficult in football.

The swap of Derek Carr for Jimmy Garoppolo can hardly be viewed as an upgrade, and the Raiders need to gel quickly in order to overcome a difficult start to their schedule.

Don’t buy into it, though. Their Under 7.5-win Total is an enticing option on Pinnacle.

16. Seattle Seahawks

PFFELO Rating: 1496

Biggest Offseason Addition: LB Bobby Wagner

Biggest Offseason Loss: RB Rashaad Penny

Toughest Schedule Stretch: Weeks 12-15

Geno Smith had a breakout year at age 32, flashing plenty of big performances last season, grading above 90.0 in three games.

Defensively, the team is young, and should only get better with star rookie Tariq Woolen and fifth overall pick Devon Witherspoon forming a dynamic CB duo to lead the defence.

After adding Jaxon Smith-Njigba to a WR core with Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf – both top 25 receivers in PFF grade for two years running - this passing offence might only be getting better.

I’m buying the Seahawks to go Over 8.5 wins at -136*.

17. Los Angeles Chargers

PFFELO Rating: 1490

Biggest Offseason Addition: WR Quentin Johnston

Biggest Offseason Loss: DE Kyle Van Noy?

Toughest Schedule Stretch: Weeks 6-9

Justin Herbert finally made the playoffs as a Charger, only for the team to blow a 27-point lead in the AFC Wild Card game.

Herbert has had the fifth best PFF deep grade since he entered the league, but his deep attempt percentage was in the bottom fourth of the league as he was structured to throw shorter developing routes.

If the new Chargers system allows for Herbert to throw deep, and new deep threat Quentin Johnson lives up to his potential, the Chargers have a fat right tail as one of the best offences in the NFL.

Their difficult schedule makes betting on a mean outcome undesirable, but I’m buying their tails, and betting Chargers to win the SB.

18. Minnesota Vikings

PFFELO Rating: 1488

Biggest Offseason Addition: WR Jordan Addison

Biggest Offseason Loss: CB Patrick Peterson

Toughest Schedule Stretch: Weeks 2-5

It’s tough to project much improvement for a defence that ranked among the worst in the NFL in EPA allowed per play last season.

The Vikings have lost some of their most stable veteran players, and are banking on a Brian Flores creation to improve the sum of their parts defensively.

Their first round draft selection will need to be another hit at the wide receiver position if this team is going to improve on their performance from last season. Otherwise, they will find themselves on the outside looking in come the NFC playoffs, given their difficult schedule.

19. New York Giants

PFFELO Rating: 1488

Biggest Offseason Addition: LB Bobby Okereke

Biggest Offseason Loss: S Julian Love

Toughest Schedule Stretch: Weeks 3-6

Danny Dimes led the Giants to their first playoff victory in 10 years last season, but there still are major questions regarding the stickiness of their 2022 success.

The team was 8-4-1 in one score games last season, and despite improvement from Dimes, he was only the 19th best passer by PFF grade.

There is little evidence to suggest this team is far better or worse than last year's, which is probably why the Giants are an 8-9 win team.

I’m passing on betting the Giants.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers

PFFELO Rating: 1486

Biggest Offseason Addition: CB Patrick Peterson

Biggest Offseason Loss: CB Cameron Sutton

Toughest Schedule Stretch: Weeks 16-18

The Steelers quietly had a decent retooling season in 2022, with quarterback Kenny Pickett posting a top 15 passing grade in his rookie year.

Encouragingly, he also posted the seventh lowest turnover-worthy play rate in the NFL.

His ability to take care of the ball should help a Steelers team that is still intent on letting its defence dictate its performance, led by their pass rush of TJ Watt, Alex Highsmith and Casey Hayward.

21. New England Patriots

PFFELO Rating: 1484

Biggest Offseason Addition: WR JuJu Smith Schuster

Biggest Offseason Loss: WR Jakobi Meyers

Toughest Schedule Stretch: Weeks 1-4

The 2023 season is slowly shaping up to be a pivotal year for the Patriots, who haven’t won a playoff game since 2018. Mac Jones took a step back in 2022, ranking 24th in PFF grade, after ranking 12th in his rookie season. He even briefly lost his job to newcomer QB Bailey Zappe.

The offseason was relatively quiet. The Patriots lost their most productive receiver in Jakobi Meyers, and replaced him with JuJu Smith Schuster and Mike Gesicki.

Perhaps having Bill O’Brien as coordinator will help Jones find his form, but with the hardest schedule projected in the NFL, the Patriots will have their work cut out for them. With a brutal stretch to start the season, it would be unsurprising to see the Patriots begin to blow it up and start to rebuild.

The Under 7.5 at essentially even money (-101*) is quite appealing for a team on the downswing.

22. Denver Broncos

PFFELO Rating: 1480

Biggest Offseason Addition: HC Sean Payton

Biggest Offseason Loss: DL Dre'Mont Jones

Toughest Schedule Stretch: Weeks 5-6

By any metric, Russell Wilson struggled mightily in 2022 where he ranked 29th in PFF grade, and the Broncos’ offence was sixth worst in EPA/Play as a result.

Now this downturn was not totally unexpected for Wilson, as he struggled to the tune of a 73.9 PFF grade in 2021. This was 19th best in the NFL, and a far cry from the QB who has been top 10 in the grade every year except one since entering the NFL in 2012.

The market pricing in a rebound year for Wilson and the Broncos, with the Broncos having a Win Total at 8.5 – they won five games last year – but it seems like there are too many hypotheticals for a 35-year-old QB who has been on the decline for a couple of years now.

I’m betting on the Under 8.5 at -120*.

23. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

PFFELO Rating: 1476

Biggest Offseason Addition: QB Baker Mayfield

Biggest Offseason Loss: QB Tom Brady

Toughest Schedule Stretch: Weeks 15-17

Tampa Bay snuck into the playoffs last season despite their offence falling off a cliff in 2022.

The rushing attack was tied for worst in the NFL in terms of EPA, and the defences were perfectly covering tailbacks (TB) on 47% of their passing plays, essentially eliminating their chances of success on nearly half of their passing plays.

The O-line is a shell of its former self. Outside of Tristan Wirfs, the highest graded player is guard Matt Feiler, whose 54.6 grade last year was 61st out of 77 qualifiers last year.

With a QB like Baker Mayfield who led the NFL in Pressure to Sack Ratio, this has all the makings of the league's worst offence. The Under 6.5 wins market is priced at -129* and I’ll be taking those odds.

24. Carolina Panthers

PFFELO Rating: 1471

Biggest Offseason Addition: QB Bryce Young

Biggest Offseason Loss: WR D. J. Moore

Toughest Schedule Stretch: Weeks 2-6

Carolina made a big splash in the 2023 draft, trading up to #1 overall to draft franchise QB Bryce Young.

However, no player graded in the top quintile of their position in PFF grade, with a receiving core led by 32-year-old Adam Thielen and the oft-injured D. J. Chark.

Even in a weak division, with a Win Total at 7.5 (juiced towards the Over), the Under at +109* is quite appealing for a rookie QB with a feeble supporting cast.

25. Washington Commanders

PFFELO Rating: 1470

Biggest Offseason Addition: CB Emmanuel Forbes

Biggest Offseason Loss: N/A

Toughest Schedule Stretch: Weeks 2-4

Washington have had no notable offseason losses after swapping Taylor Heinicke for Jacoby Brissett.

Neither can be mistaken for a starting-calibre quarterback, as the Commanders seem set on finding out if Sam Howell is worthy of that distinction.

The schedule doesn’t do them any favours, and the only approach (if you are bullish on their outlook) is to bet some Futures after their opening stretch of games.

26. Los Angeles Rams

PFFELO Rating: 1469

Biggest Offseason Loss: CB Jalen Ramsey

Toughest Schedule Stretch: Weeks 1-3

The “Eff Them Picks” approach finally caught up to the Rams last year, when they followed up their 2021 Super Bowl win with a disastrous 5-12 season.

Much like the Panthers’ offence, the Rams’ defence outside of Aaron Donald does not have a single projected starter who was in the top third of their position in PFF grade.

With Ramsey now gone, the Rams’ defence is a shell of its former self, and looks to be a weak unit.

On offence, Matthew Stafford is entering his 35th year with serious elbow and head concerns, alongside a generally poor offensive line. I’m taking the Under 6.5 at -116*.

27. Tennessee Titans

PFFELO Rating: 1467

Biggest Offseason Addition: LB Arden Key Jr.

Biggest Offseason Loss: OT Taylor Lewan

Toughest Schedule Stretch: Weeks 1-4

The Titans’ six-year win streak ended in 2022, with seven straight losses to finish the season at 7-10.

The O-line allowed quick pressure at a nearly 30% clip, which was the worst in the NFL, and they lost their best tackle in Taylor Lewan in the offseason. The secondary was a disaster, with the worst Pass Defence by most metrics.

Yet, the team still managed to win seven games, as has become custom in the Mike Vrabel era. At 7.5 juiced to the Under, I can’t get myself on either side of this bet.

28. Indianapolis Colts

PFFELO Rating: 1464

Biggest Offseason Addition: QB Anthony Richardson

Biggest Offseason Loss: LB Bobby Okereke

Toughest Schedule Stretch: Weeks 14-16

The Colts finally ended their QB purgatory, drafting Anthony Richardson, who is fourth overall in this year's draft.

However, drafting the raw prospect in Richardson (over Will Levis), and signing Gardner Minshew to play back up with Shane Steichen suggests that the Colts are fine to let Richardson develop, and are in no rush to play him. Whether it's Minshew or Richardson playing, the team has retained most of the same offence that was second to worst in EPA/Play and bottom five in nearly all efficiency metrics. I’m taking the Under 6.5 at +116*.

29. Atlanta Falcons

PFFELO Rating: 1460

Biggest Offseason Addition: S Jessie Bates

Biggest Offseason Loss: CB Casey Hayward

Toughest Schedule Stretch: Weeks 2-4

The Falcons completely revamped their defence in the offseason, adding six new starters, headlined by the signing of free agent safety Jessie Bates.

On offence, the team is full of talented young players, including Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and Bijan Robinson, but Desmond Ridder still presents a massive question mark.

In a limited sample, Ridder was good under pressure. For the Falcons’ offence to improve, they will need Ridder to take a big leap in his sophomore season, but I’ll be laying off.

30. Chicago Bears

PFFELO Rating: 1458

Biggest Offseason Addition: WR D. J. Moore

Biggest Offseason Loss: RB David Montgomery

Toughest Schedule Stretch: Weeks 6-9

The Bears’ offence flipped a switch on Monday Night Football in Week 7, and the team began to design runs for Justin Fields which unlocked a new game strategy for them.

Fields finished the season from that point forward with the 15th best PFF Grade, and the Bears’ EPA/Play was similarly middle of the pack. The Bears added a new #1 WR for Fields in D. J. Moore, along with big free agent linebacker signings in T. J. Edwards and Tremaine Edmunds.

How far the Bears go will likely be decided by Fields' ability to progress as a passer, and he finally has a decent supporting cast by his side. I’m cautiously optimistic, but will not be betting on the Bears just yet.

31. Arizona Cardinals

PFFELO Rating: 1347

Biggest Offseason Addition: OT Kelvin Beachum

Biggest Offseason Loss: DL J.J. Watt

Toughest Schedule Stretch: Weeks 15-18

With Kyler Murray on the shelf for at least the first half of the season, the Cardinals are expected to be one of the worst performing teams in the NFL.

The defence was in the bottom five of the league last season by most efficiency metrics, and lost three key starters in J.J. Watt, Byron Murphy, and Zac Allen.

Not to mention, Pro Bowl safety Budda Baker requested a trade out as well.

I can’t see a case to buy an Over on this team, and four wins seems low for a team that might have Kyler Murray playing some games this season. I’m passing.

32. Houston Texans

PFFELO Rating:

Biggest Offseason Addition: QB Bryce Young

Biggest Offseason Loss: Ogbonnia Okoronkwo

Toughest Schedule Stretch: Weeks 1-4

The Texans have their franchise QB in C. J. Stroud, though it is anyone’s guess how well he will perform in year one.

As opposed to previous seasons, the Texans have no incentive to tank this year – especially after trading away their first round pick – but the roster is still young and unproven.

For the Texans to go over their 6.5 wins, they would likely need some of their young players – Stroud, Derek Stingley Jr., Nico Collins, John Metchie - to emerge. There are far too many undecided factors for me to be comfortable betting on their Over.

Check out Pinnacle Betting Resources during the 2023 NFL season for the latest NFL predictions and special Game of the Week insights.

Odds subject to change

Betting Resources - Empowering your betting

Pinnacle’s Betting Resources is one of the most comprehensive collections of expert betting advice anywhere online. Catering to all experience levels our aim is simply to empower bettors to become more knowledgeable.