The highly anticipated 2023 NFL Draft is just a few days away, as Union Station in Kansas City, Missouri gets set to host the event. Our NFL Insights’ very own Ben Brown will take you through this three-day extravaganza.
When is the 2023 NFL Draft?
The 2023 NFL Draft will take place between Thursday, April 27 and Saturday, April 29, 2023. The event will be broadcast on the NFL Network, ESPN, ABC, ESPN Deportes, and ESPN Radio. It’s expected to begin around 20:00 Eastern time.
Who has the first NFL Draft pick of 2023?
The Chicago Bears originally owned the first pick for the first time since 1947. However, they traded it to the Carolina Panthers for multiple draft picks further down the line, along with wide receiver D.J. Moore.
The second pick goes to the Houston Texans, while the Arizona Cardinals attained the third pick in round one.
Analysing NFL Draft betting markets
Draft prop markets offer some of the best opportunities for individual bettors to gain a sizeable advantage over bookmakers. No other market moves (and settles) on information quite like draft props, where sophisticated models and simulations can be completely wiped away by one tweet from an industry insider.
Monitoring the first overall pick odds throughout the offseason can reveal just how much uncertainty can exist on the bookmaker’s side. For example, Bryce Young opening as the favourite, then slipping all the way to a +300 [4.000] longshot — before re-emerging as the likely choice to go to number one two weeks before the draft.
<How to Bet on the NFL: The Ultimate NFL Betting Guide>
The second overall pick has seen similar movement, with four different players being listed as the favourite in the span of a week. Line movement like that simply doesn’t happen in other markets, which is why the approach to betting on the draft needs to be different than any other conventional betting market.
The days leading up to the draft are filled with misinformation, and although it would have paid to try and front-load news early on in the draft cycle, the smokescreen nature of the final week means bettors are likely to get chopped up chasing the latest head-fake as we move towards Thursday.
Pinnacle’s status as the world leader in sharp bookmaking really shows in their draft props, with their offerings being the lowest vig lines in the market. Let’s take a look at a few spots that might be worth buying into.
NFL Draft Odds: TOTAL QUARTERBACKS DRAFTED IN ROUND ONE
It seems unlikely that any of the big four will slide past pick 11, meaning the hook hinges on Hendon Hooker in the back half of the first round. His Player Total is currently off the board at Pinnacle, but he has a Total of 31.5 juiced heavily to the Under. Pinnacle have already moved this price considerably towards the Over, but things typically continue to slip in one direction in these types of situations. Minnesota continue to be linked to Hooker, but multiple paths exist for this bet to pay out.
NFL Draft Odds: DRAFT POSITION - ZAY FLOWERS 0/U 23.5
A player continuing to gain buzz in the lead up to the draft is Zay Flowers. He profiles as an elusive, game-breaking type receiver who seems to be higher on NFL team’s draft boards than media insiders acknowledge. Separation wins at the NFL level, and nobody in this draft does it better against zone coverage than Zay Flowers.
<Pinnacle’s NFL Draft 2023 Props>
Flowers also could gain steam because of a lack of top end talent at the wide receiver position, yet it continues to evolve into the game’s second most important position. NFL teams enjoy the comfort of the fifth-year option on their first round selection, and gravitate toward positions where hits matter more - quarterback and wide receiver.
Buying into NFL teams becoming sharper can aid in finding value in the betting market, and there’s no better candidate than Zay Flowers at the current pricing.
NFL Draft Odds: DRAFT POSITION - DALTON KINCAID O/U 25.5
Tight end is on the opposite trajectory to wide receiver, as the fifth-lowest non-special position from an average salary basis. This means that NFL teams could continue to bypass the position at growing rates, which would leave the big three at the position struggling to find a round one suitor. Dalton Kincaid is once again the second-most likely first tight end off the board, after Michael Mayer opened as the heavy favourite and re-established his place at the top last week.
Darnell Washington seems to be generating the most recent steam, and both Washington and Mayer seem heavily linked to certain teams. This could leave Kincaid as the odd man out, as his Player Total continues to slip across the market. Pinnacle currently offers a plus price on Over 25.5, which looks to be too enticing to ignore.
Feel informed and ready to make your picks on the 2023 NFL Draft? Find all the latest odds at Pinnacle. Plus, follow Ben on Twitter @PFF_BenBrown for his extensive coverage.
Odds are subject to change.