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<h3>What role has experience played at the Euros?</h3>

Match outcomes and goal scorers in club football can be hard enough for bettors to predict when teams play every week and stick to a relatively small pool of players. However, betting on these markets for international soccer involves a heightened level of difficulty.

For instance, England played 12 matches between the 2022 World Cup and the end of the 2023/24 season, of which eight were competitive. For these, manager Gareth Southgate named 43 different players in match day squads, with all but four of them making at least one appearance. With turnover levels such as these, forecasting the England squad for Euro 2024 is challenging enough, let alone how they might perform at the tournament.

<blockquote>
It is the same for all 24 nations who will be taking part at Euro 2024, and ultimately it will most likely be one of the outright favorites who will prove to have the best players and go all the way and lift the trophy on July 14.
</blockquote>

However, it is always worth looking for any trends from previous editions to see if there are any similarities shared between teams who progressed far into the tournament.

To make this assessment, we can rank the finishing position of the teams in an edition of the Euros by collating in which round they were knocked out, and then ordering the teams who exited at each stage by their points per game, average goal difference, and average goals scored. We can also order each country’s squad on the average number of caps they had per player and their average age.

Using Spearman's Rank Correlation Coefficient, we can then compare those standings to their finishing position to see if there is any significant link between the statistics. Yet, doing so for the previous six Euros reveals there has often been little correlation whatsoever, and it has frequently been a negative relationship. In other words, a team has been more likely to succeed with a younger squad who have earned fewer caps.

Correlation coefficients for average caps and age compared to finishing position

<table class="article-table">
	<tbody>
		<tr>
			<td>
			Tournament
			</td>
			<td>
			Average caps vs. Finishing position correlation
			</td>
			<td>
			Average age vs. Finishing position correlation
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			Euro 2000
			</td>
			<td>
			-0.018
			</td>
			<td>
			-0.236
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			Euro 2004
			</td>
			<td>
			0.412
			</td>
			<td>
			-0.015
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			Euro 2008
			</td>
			<td>
			-0.294
			</td>
			<td>
			-0.348
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			Euro 2012
			</td>
			<td>
			-0.121
			</td>
			<td>
			-0.202
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			Euro 2016
			</td>
			<td>
			0.107
			</td>
			<td>
			0.116
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			Euro 2020
			</td>
			<td>
			-0.006
			</td>
			<td>
			-0.093
			</td>
		</tr>
	</tbody>
</table>

The correlation is often next to non-existent, so we need to drill down deeper to see if any other trends or running themes are worthy of our attention.&nbsp;

<h3>Is the average age and number of caps for a Euros squad important?</h3>

Studying the average caps and age of countries by their finishing position across the last six Euros reveals what appears to be a remarkable anomaly.

The squads of the winning teams (France, Greece, Spain twice, Portugal and Italy) sported 34.3 caps per player and were an average of 27.4 years old entering the tournament. Among the finishing positions from first to 16th, this represented the fourth-most caps and seventh-oldest selection of players, directly implying that age and experience carry weight in the European Championships.

However, in the top six for both categories were also the countries who finished 14th, 15th and 16th, which undermines that idea entirely.&nbsp;

Average number of caps and ages for the top 16 teams at the last six Euros

<table class="article-table">
	<tbody>
		<tr>
			<td>
			Final position
			</td>
			<td>
			Average caps
			</td>
			<td>
			Caps rank
			</td>
			<td>
			Average age
			</td>
			<td>
			Age rank
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			1
			</td>
			<td>
			34.3
			</td>
			<td>
			4
			</td>
			<td>
			27.4
			</td>
			<td>
			7
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			2
			</td>
			<td>
			27.1
			</td>
			<td>
			15
			</td>
			<td>
			26.8
			</td>
			<td>
			13
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			3
			</td>
			<td>
			29.5
			</td>
			<td>
			12
			</td>
			<td>
			26.3
			</td>
			<td>
			16
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			4
			</td>
			<td>
			32.3
			</td>
			<td>
			7
			</td>
			<td>
			27.0
			</td>
			<td>
			10
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			5
			</td>
			<td>
			34.6
			</td>
			<td>
			3
			</td>
			<td>
			27.5
			</td>
			<td>
			3
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			6
			</td>
			<td>
			27.6
			</td>
			<td>
			14
			</td>
			<td>
			26.7
			</td>
			<td>
			14
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			7
			</td>
			<td>
			30.9
			</td>
			<td>
			8
			</td>
			<td>
			27.0
			</td>
			<td>
			11
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			8
			</td>
			<td>
			30.0
			</td>
			<td>
			10
			</td>
			<td>
			27.4
			</td>
			<td>
			6
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			9
			</td>
			<td>
			30.2
			</td>
			<td>
			9
			</td>
			<td>
			27.1
			</td>
			<td>
			9
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			10
			</td>
			<td>
			36.3
			</td>
			<td>
			1
			</td>
			<td>
			27.4
			</td>
			<td>
			5
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			11
			</td>
			<td>
			30.0
			</td>
			<td>
			11
			</td>
			<td>
			26.8
			</td>
			<td>
			12
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			12
			</td>
			<td>
			28.1
			</td>
			<td>
			13
			</td>
			<td>
			27.2
			</td>
			<td>
			8
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			13
			</td>
			<td>
			26.7
			</td>
			<td>
			16
			</td>
			<td>
			26.5
			</td>
			<td>
			15
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			14
			</td>
			<td>
			33.9
			</td>
			<td>
			6
			</td>
			<td>
			27.5
			</td>
			<td>
			4
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			15
			</td>
			<td>
			34.1
			</td>
			<td>
			5
			</td>
			<td>
			27.8
			</td>
			<td>
			2
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			16
			</td>
			<td>
			35.4
			</td>
			<td>
			2
			</td>
			<td>
			27.9
			</td>
			<td>
			1
			</td>
		</tr>
	</tbody>
</table>

When analyzing previous tournaments, it is perhaps best to primarily concentrate on the last two editions, as Euro 2016 was the first time the tournament featured 24 teams (as will compete this year).

The data from eight years ago in France paints a confusing picture. On one hand, seven teams at Euro 2016 had a maximum of 10 players with no more than 25 caps in their squads, and four of them (Germany, Iceland, Poland, and Wales) reached the quarterfinals. That would indicate that experience is important, particularly as Iceland and Wales were widely regarded to have exceeded expectations.&nbsp;

However, only two nations from the top eight for total caps or oldest average age progressed to the quarterfinals. Ireland’s Euro 2016 squad was the oldest among the 112 teams that qualified for the previous six Euros, and while they did progress to the knockout phase, they also won only one of their four matches in total.

Teams were less experienced overall at Euro 2020, with players averaging the fewest caps for five editions. This was likely in part thanks to squads expanding from 23 to 26 men, allowing coaches greater leeway for experimentation.

Some of the more inexperienced teams did well too. Runners-up England and semi-finalists Spain were in the bottom seven teams for both caps and average age, while quarter-finalists Czech Republic were in the bottom seven for caps and Ukraine were in the bottom seven for average age.&nbsp;

Only Belgium had fewer than 10 players with a maximum of 25 prior appearances. Their 26 men were the oldest and held the most caps on average but were beaten by eventual winners Italy in the last eight.

<a href="https://www.pinnacle.com/en/soccer/can-euro-qualifying-matches-help-inform-your-predictions/3t32j9dg7ud2w5s9" id="articleLink" style="color: #f50;" target="_blank">Read: Can Euro qualifying matches help inform your predictions?</a>

<h3>How experienced were previous squads that have won the Euros?</h3>

<blockquote>
A tournament is ultimately about more than the final, even if obviously that is the most important match.
</blockquote>

It is worth noting that champions Italy gave all but one of their players a game during Euro 2020, while the previous winners Portugal used 21 of their 23 men at least once in 2016.

With this in mind, we can divide caps per player by average age to get a very simplistic Experience Score metric. While this doesn’t throw up any strong correlation across tournament finishing positions overall, notably at five of the last six Euros the more experienced squad by this measure won the final.&nbsp;

Experience scores for teams that reached the final at the last five Euros

<table class="article-table">
	<tbody>
		<tr>
			<td>
			Tournament
			</td>
			<td>
			Team
			</td>
			<td>
			Caps&nbsp;per player
			</td>
			<td>
			Average age
			</td>
			<td>
			Experience score
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			Euro 2000
			</td>
			<td>
			France (Winner)
			</td>
			<td>
			39.1
			</td>
			<td>
			28.0
			</td>
			<td>
			1.40
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			Euro 2000
			</td>
			<td>
			Italy (Runners-up)
			</td>
			<td>
			21.0
			</td>
			<td>
			27.0
			</td>
			<td>
			0.78
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			Euro 2004
			</td>
			<td>
			Greece (Winner)
			</td>
			<td>
			32.3
			</td>
			<td>
			28.3
			</td>
			<td>
			1.14
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			Euro 2004
			</td>
			<td>
			Portugal (Runners-up)
			</td>
			<td>
			29.5
			</td>
			<td>
			26.8
			</td>
			<td>
			1.10
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			Euro 2008
			</td>
			<td>
			Spain (Winner)
			</td>
			<td>
			23.3
			</td>
			<td>
			26.0
			</td>
			<td>
			0.89
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			Euro 2008
			</td>
			<td>
			Germany (Runners-up)
			</td>
			<td>
			36.1
			</td>
			<td>
			26.7
			</td>
			<td>
			1.35
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			Euro 2012
			</td>
			<td>
			Spain (Winner)
			</td>
			<td>
			47.8
			</td>
			<td>
			26.7
			</td>
			<td>
			1.79
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			Euro 2012
			</td>
			<td>
			Italy (Runners-up)
			</td>
			<td>
			27.7
			</td>
			<td>
			27.9
			</td>
			<td>
			0.99
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			Euro 2016
			</td>
			<td>
			Portugal (Winner)
			</td>
			<td>
			36.9
			</td>
			<td>
			27.9
			</td>
			<td>
			1.32
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			Euro 2016
			</td>
			<td>
			France (Runners-up)
			</td>
			<td>
			27.3
			</td>
			<td>
			27.3
			</td>
			<td>
			1.00
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			Euro 2020
			</td>
			<td>
			Italy (Winner)
			</td>
			<td>
			26.5
			</td>
			<td>
			27.3
			</td>
			<td>
			0.97
			</td>
		</tr>
		<tr>
			<td>
			Euro 2020
			</td>
			<td>
			England (Runners-up)
			</td>
			<td>
			20.9
			</td>
			<td>
			24.8
			</td>
			<td>
			0.84
			</td>
		</tr>
	</tbody>
</table>

These stats reveal some interesting observations. The Italy squad at Euro 2000 were led by 105-cap captain Paolo Maldini, but also featured 16 players with no more than 25 caps. Only 8 of the 111 other teams who have competed at the last six European Championships sported a higher proportion of their squad with such little international experience, and it took until Euro 2020 for any of them to reach the quarterfinals.&nbsp;

Euro 2000 winners France only had eight squad members with fewer than 25 caps, and the same was true of the Greece squad that lifted the trophy in 2004.

Only two teams this century have entered the tournament with fewer such players in their squad. This appeared to help Otto Rehhagel’s underdogs, as Portugal’s squad was undoubtedly more talented but also light on caps - just two of their final starting eleven had more than 26 caps when the tournament began.

The Euro 2008 final is the lone exception to the rule, as the less experienced group of players lifted the trophy in Vienna. However, even on that occasion, Spain could call upon immense experience in key positions. Their most capped player Iker Casillas was in goal, and the three players in their final line-up who were aged 30 or above played in defense or holding midfield.

Of the 11 players in Luis Aragones’ squad who had collected the most caps, eight started against Germany, while another (Xabi Alonso) was their first substitute. Euro 2008 Golden Boot winner David Villa, another of their 11 most-capped players, would have presumably featured too if an injury suffered in the semi-final had not ruled him out.

Spain then reaped the rewards of utilizing an established group of players four years later, by arriving with the joint-most experienced squad (as per the above metric) witnessed at the last six Euros. Indeed, six of their starting eleven in the 2012 final were returnees from 2008, and four of the other five players had at least 40 caps too.

However, once again we can’t automatically equate caps and age with success. The squad with the joint-highest Experience Score from the last six Euros were Belgium at Euro 2020, who reached the quarterfinals but were number one in the FIFA world rankings at the time so would’ve hoped to do better. Next in line in experience terms were the Netherlands at Euro 2012, who finished bottom of their group after losing all three matches.

While player quality and managerial nous may ultimately decide which teams go further than others, history suggests that when it comes to the Euros, bettors could benefit from a quick calculation of the squads’ experience level to predict clashes between teams of a similar standard.

Looking forward to Euro 2024? Get better odds and better payouts when you check out the latest <a href="https://www.pinnacle.com/en/soccer/uefa-euro/matchups" id="articleLink" style="color: #f50;" target="_blank">Euro 2024 odds</a> on every match and group, outright markets and more with Pinnacle.

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How important are age and experience at the Euros?

Age and experience often help teams at international tournaments to perform at a higher level. With this in mind, what role might age and experience play at Euro 2020? Read on to find out.

How important is age and experience at the Euros?

When building a squad to compete at an international tournament, age and experience often prove crucial elements capable of assisting a team to perform at a higher level than their general ability might indicate. With this in mind, what role might age and experience play at Euro 2024? Read on to find out.