Group F at Euro 2020 contains arguably the strongest set of teams from any of the six groups, including defending champions Portugal, world champions France, the ever-consistent Germany, and an improving Hungary side. The group has been referred to as the ‘Group of Death’, so who are the favourites to progress and what can be expected from the four teams? Read on to inform your predictions.
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Euro 2020: Group F predictions
Pinnacle projected points
Euro 2020: Group F schedule
All times listed are CEST (Central European Summer Time).
June 15, 18:00: Hungary vs. Portugal
June 15, 21:00: France vs. Germany
June 19, 15:00: France vs. Hungary
June 19, 18:00: Germany vs. Portugal
June 23, 21:00: France vs. Portugal, Germany vs. Hungary
Manager: Didier Deschamps
Key Player: Kylian Mbappe
FIFA World Ranking (April 2021): 2nd
Recent performances: Euro 2016 - Runners-up, 2018 World Cup - Winners
Odds to win Group F: 2.250*
Odds to win Euro 2020: 6.370*
At Euro 2020, France will be appearing at their 13th successive tournament, having reached five finals at (and won three of) the previous dozen, meaning the French are a team who are very much capable of going all the way.
France can arguably field a better team now than that which won the 2018 World Cup.
The world champions would have been expected to comfortably qualify from any group they were drawn in, but with Group F being the toughest of all six, the probability is now higher than usual that they could be eliminated at this early stage due to the quality of the other teams they will face.
However, in Didier Deschamps they have a manager who knows what it takes to win at international level and there is arguably no weak area in their side. Coupled with their defensive strength and electrifying counter-attacking ability led by one of the world’s best players in Kylian Mbappe, it is hard to foresee them not progressing from Group F.
The World Cup holders also have the same manager and fundamentally the same team that lifted the trophy in 2018, and their star player Mbappe is now at a better level than he was three years ago. France are available at 6.370* to triumph again, meaning 'Les Bleus' are second favourites behind England in the outright betting market, although a case could be made that the former possess more quality.
In terms of Group F betting, if France were to finish third then it is highly likely that they will have performed well enough to rank among the top third-placed teams, as they can utilise the perfect balance of youth, experience, and star quality. Expect France to take a minimum of four points from their three fixtures, which would likely be enough to qualify.
Manager: Joachim Low
Key Player: Toni Kroos
FIFA World Ranking (April 2021): 12th
Recent performances: Euro 2016 - Semi-finals, 2018 World Cup - Group stage
Odds to win Group F: 2.410*
Odds to win Euro 2020: 8.400*
Germany will be looking to re-establish themselves at Euro 2020 as a major force in international soccer following their lacklustre 2018 World Cup campaign. On that occasion, Joachim Low’s side were eliminated at the group stage (the first time they had endured such a fate at the World Cup) despite entering the tournament as the outright betting favourites and holders.
Despite undergoing a transitional period, Germany can still field several world-class talents.
Since then, their usually efficient team have failed to produce anything like the kind of form that would make you favour them to win a major tournament and out of the three recognised powerhouses in this group, they could be the most vulnerable to a group stage exit.
They are also undergoing a changing of the guard, as a large bulk of the world-class crop that won the 2014 World Cup have since been moved on by Low and replaced by the likes of Chelsea duo Timo Werner and Kai Havertz and Bayer Leverkusen’s standout star Florian Wirtz.
Despite this, they can still field formidable talents including Toni Kroos, Ilkay Gundogan, and Manuel Neuer, while Joshua Kimmich has completed his evolution into a highly-rated central midfielder. The trio of Kroos, Kimmich and Leon Goretzka provide an extremely strong central core in the 4-3-3 formation that Low favoured during qualifying, where their results were impressive.
Pinnacle does rate Germany as joint-favourites to qualify from Group F, but as they will have learned from both 2018 and their recent shock loss to North Macedonia, nothing will be a certainty. The Germans’ group stage points are set at 5.5 and with the slight doubt around how effectively this squad of players performs as a team at present, under 5.5 points could represent value to bettors at 1.714*.
Manager: Marco Rossi
Key Player: Willi Orban
FIFA World Ranking (April 2021): 37th
Recent performances: Euro 2016 - Round of 16, 2018 World Cup - Did not qualify
Odds to win Group F: 41.120*
Odds to win Euro 2020: 209.270*
Hungary, once a giant of international soccer, will take part in their second consecutive European Championships this summer. With a gifted squad at Marco Rossi's disposal, this talented group of players can count themselves unfortunate to have been drawn in the ‘Group of Death’.
Hungary to exceed 1.5 points across their three matches in Group F could easily prove a value bet.
Nonetheless, Hungary can boast quality among their ranks combined with good and experienced players throughout the squad, although they will be without the injured and highly talented RB Leipzig star Dominik Szboszlai, who will likely be one of the most sought-after players across Europe during the next couple of years.
Ultimately, the tough assignment of facing three of the best teams in the competitive back-to-back will likely prove a step too far for Hungary. However, with Marco Rossi coaching a team featuring notable talents such as Peter Gulacsi in goal and a solid and experienced center-back in Willi Orban, it is unlikely that this team will be completely dominated in every match they play.
Indeed, they should be expected to exhibit moments of quality in this group despite the quality of the opposition they will face. It will take a colossal effort for Hungary to qualify from Group F, and it is no surprise to see that Pinnacle have priced them at 5.130* to advance.
However, they are capable of springing an upset on their day, so with their group stage points set at 1.5, odds of 2.040* to exceed this total could represent value to bettors. Obviously, just one win would be enough to achieve the feat and could even see them progress as one of the best third-placed teams.
Manager: Fernando Santos
Key Player: Cristiano Ronaldo
FIFA World Ranking (April 2021): 5th
Recent performances: Euro 2016 - Winners, 2018 World Cup - Round of 16
Odds to win Group F: 4.670*
Odds to win Euro 2020: 9.510*
Defending champions Portugal will perhaps enter Euro 2020 with less hype surrounding them than in recent years, but they are still a team that should not be ignored in Pinnacle’s betting markets.
Portugal are the defending champions, having beaten France 1-0 after extra time in the Euro 2016 final.
Naturally, it is difficult to review their squad without mentioning their most-capped player and all-time top scorer Cristiano Ronaldo. Now aged 36, he is likely beyond his peak years, but also still an invaluable member of the team for his big tournament experience and quality. Portugal have demonstrated such quality recently by winning the Nations League and their team consists of several standout players who ply their trade at Europe’s elite clubs.
For instance, Atletico Madrid’s Joao Felix exhibited magnificent skill during their Nations League triumph that both helped Portugal to win the trophy and highlighted why he made his senior debut aged just 19.
Elsewhere, Bruno Fernandes will enter the tournament in the best form of his career at club level, and the likes of fellow Premier League stars Joao Cancelo, Ruben Dias, Bernardo Silva, and Diogo Jota ensure considerable squad depth.
Despite being the holders, Fernando Santos’ side are somewhat surprisingly lesser favoured than France and Germany to qualify from this group according to Pinnacle’s odds, but with the sheer star power they possess in their ranks, 4.670* for Portugal to win Group F could easily represent value.
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