Euro 2020: Golden Boot betting preview

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How many goals have previous Golden Boot winners scored?

Since the Euros switched to a 16-team format in 1996, the average number of goals scored by Golden Boot winners is 4.66, with the top scorer having most frequently netted five goals during this time. However, perhaps the more notable takeaway is that with the exception of Savo Milosevic at Euro 2000, every Golden Boot winner since 1996 reached at least the semi-finals of the tournament.

Recent European Championship Golden Boot winners

Tournament	Golden Boot winner(s)	Goals scored	Tournament performance
Euro 1996	Alan Shearer (England)	5	Semi-finals
Euro 2000
	Patrick Kluivert (Netherlands)		Semi-finals
	Savo Milosevic (Serbia and Montenegro)		Quarter-finals
Euro 2004	Milan Baros (Czech Republic)		Semi-finals
Euro 2008	David Villa (Spain)	4	Winner
Euro 2012	Fernando Torres (Spain)	4	Winner
Euro 2016	Antoine Griezmann (France)	6	Runners-up

Euro 2020 Golden Boot betting: Who are the favourites?

Euro 2020 Golden Boot odds: favourites

Player	Odds	2020/21 club goals scored*	International goals per game ratio*	Takes penalties?
Harry Kane (England)	8.010*	31	0.64	Yes
Romelu Lukaku (Belgium)	8.010*	28	0.65	Sometimes
Kylian Mbappe (France)	8.100*	39	0.38	Rarely
Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal)	10.010*	35	0.60	Yes
Antoine Griezmann (France)	17.020*	19	0.40	Yes
Robert Lewandowski (Poland)	17.020*	46	0.56	Yes
Raheem Sterling (England)	17.020*	14	0.23	Rarely
Timo Werner (Germany)	17.020*	12	0.39	Yes

*As of May 13, 2021.

England captain Harry Kane (8.010*) won the Golden Boot at the 2018 World Cup, and he has been made joint-favourite by the betting market to repeat the feat at Euro 2020. The 27-year-old has enjoyed a highly productive season for Tottenham, and also netted 12 goals across England’s qualifying campaign while scoring in every match.

Kane’s Golden Boot triumph in Russia three years ago provided a timely reminder that winning the award doesn’t require consistently fantastic performances. Indeed, all but one of his six goals at the tournament came in the group stage and three of them were penalties. His immense hold-up play and ability to create chances could also prove vital if on this occasion the award needs to be decided on assists, with Kane registering 15 in all competitions at club level this season.

Cristiano Ronaldo has scored at least three goals at three of his last four major international tournaments.

The odds are struggling to separate Kane and Belgium forward Romelu Lukaku (8.010*). A Serie A champion this season with Inter Milan, the 28-year-old appears to have rediscovered his scoring touch after an inconsistent final campaign at Manchester United. Since the start of 2018 he has also impressively netted 28 goals in 26 matches for his country, a run that has included 13 two-goal performances.

However, Lukaku has consistently struggled to shake off a reputation for underperforming against higher-standard opponents, and he failed to score beyond the group stage at both Euro 2016 and the 2018 World Cup. If he continues in this vein, his chances of winning the Golden Boot may lean heavily on his group stage efforts.

France’s Kylian Mbappe (8.100*) is deservedly regarded as one of the world’s most exciting and versatile attackers, who has exhibited an ability to score flurries of goals irrespective of whether he is playing as a centre-forward or on the wing. He will enter Euro 2020 following his finest season yet for PSG and was arguably France’s best player when they won the 2018 World Cup, although he has scored just six international goals since the start of 2019.

On top of that, the fact that both Germany and Portugal lie in wait in Group F may give the likes of Kane and Lukaku a firm head start in the scoring charts. Just two of Mbappe’s 16 France goals have come against teams currently placed in the top dozen of the FIFA World Rankings, although it is difficult to foresee the 22-year-old not actively challenging for the award.

In what will likely be his last European Championship, Cristiano Ronaldo (10.010*) is also firmly in the running. Portugal’s all-time top scorer can boast over 100 goals on the international stage, and is by far the most experienced player among the immediate frontrunners. Ronaldo has also scored at least three goals at all but one of the last four major international tournaments he has played at.

However, perhaps his biggest barrier to the Golden Boot award is his age. With Ronaldo now 36 and Portugal able to call upon other attacking talents such as Joao Felix, Bruno Fernandes, and Bernardo Silva, manager Fernando Santos may be inclined to deploy him pragmatically in a bid to keep him at full fitness. As a result, whether Ronaldo can win the Golden Boot may depend on simply whether he gets the minutes required to do so.

Euro 2016 Golden Boot winner Antoine Griezmann is 17.020* to become the first player in the competition’s history to claim it twice. Griezmann’s club form has somewhat dipped since his transfer to Barcelona, but he has maintained decent numbers for France and appears to enjoy playing at major tournaments, having also netted four goals at the 2018 World Cup.

Robert Lewandowski (17.020*) is arguably the finest striker on the continent at present and has staggeringly notched up over 100 goals for Bayern Munich in all competitions during the last two seasons. While no doubts can be cast over his individual credentials, his chances of winning the Golden Boot will be dictated by how far Poland progress in the tournament. Considering they will be facing Spain and Sweden in Group E, Lewandowski could be forced to capitalise on his group stage appearances.

After scoring only four goals in his first 47 England appearances, Raheem Sterling (17.020*) has become one of his country’s most important attackers. He has netted 10 goals in 14 England games since the start of 2019 and only six players notched up more than his eight across the entire qualifying campaign. While he is a primarily a winger, Sterling has also proved his ability to play at centre-forward should Kane be unavailable for any period of the tournament.

Perhaps the most surprising inclusion on this list, Timo Werner (17.020*) has endured a somewhat disappointing debut campaign for Chelsea, during which he has been repeatedly guilty of missing simple chances. However, his sheer pace on the ball enables him to trouble any defence, and he has netted goals for Germany against the likes of France, Spain, and the Netherlands. If Werner can regain a degree of composure in front of goal, he could easily serve as a potential candidate to be top scorer.

Euro 2020 Golden Boot betting: Notable outsiders

Memphis Depay (21.030*) has been a consistently strong performer for the Netherlands in recent years, netting 15 goals in 28 games since the start of 2018 while scoring against teams including France, Germany, and Portugal. The 27-year-old will also enter Euro 2020 on the back of a strong campaign with Lyon, and will be presumably eyeing up goals against what are broadly deemed to be unchallenging Group C opponents.

Gareth Bale can call upon an encouraging record at big tournaments.

While he is primarily applauded for his playmaking efforts, Kevin De Bruyne (51.070*) has increased his goal-scoring output in recent years, netting 25 for Manchester City in all competitions since the start of last season as well as six in his last 12 Belgium appearances. Roberto Martinez’s preference for a fluid and attacking style may permit De Bruyne increased freedom to get forward and attempt to convert chances as well as create them, and he is also a strong free-kick taker.

Gareth Bale (51.070*) has not scored for Wales since 2019, although he appears to be ending the season with a much-needed flourish for Tottenham. As his Champions League record and three goals scored at Euro 2016 indicate, he is motivated by the biggest tournaments and will presumably serve as the focal point of the Wales attack. If Wales successfully progress from Group A and their captain maintains his fitness, expect Bale to net at least a few goals at the tournament.

Don't forget to read our previews for all six Euro 2020 groups: Group A, Group B, Group C, Group D, Group E, Group F.

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