Jan 10, 2020
Jan 10, 2020

Betting Resources' most popular articles of 2019

What were their main takeaways and insights?

With 2019 having come to a close, we are pleased to say that last year we published over 250 in-depth articles covering a broad range of betting topics, sports and events. What were the most read articles on Betting Resources in 2019 and what are their key takeaways and insights? Read on to find out.

Educating and informing bettors

Whilst Pinnacle is known for offering the best odds and highest limits online alongside our winners welcome policy, we are equally proud of our Betting Resources, which has quickly become the go-to source of unique insight for bettors.

From detailed event previews and beginner’s betting guides to advanced strategy analysis and studies into betting psychology, Betting Resources covers it all. These are Pinnacle’s most popular betting articles of 2019.

Betting odds explained: How do odds work?

Understanding how odds work may be considered entry level betting knowledge. However, it is still pivotal to fully appreciate what the odds mean in terms of both how probable the outcome you are betting on is rated and how much money your stake could win.

This article looks at how to calculate probability, a bookmaker’s margin and your potential payout from betting odds; three details you should be aware of when placing or deliberating any bet.

It is also important to be able to distinguish between different odds formats, something which is covered in another of our most read articles this year: American odds vs. Decimal odds.

This explains the difference between the two as well as the distinction between ‘positive’ and ‘negative’ American odds. Don’t forget that if you have odds you want to convert, you can use Pinnacle’s Odds Converter Calculator.

How to calculate Expected Value

Expected Value may be a term that not all bettors are familiar with, but it is crucial in determining exactly how much money you are likely to win (or lose) from a bet on average. Being capable of calculating Expected Value enables you to judge more precisely whether or not a bet represents good value.

Our guide includes a detailed but straightforward explanation in how to calculate Expected Value, and combine it with other staking and analysis methods to review the value of specific odds and a bookmaker in general.

Expected Value is also a perfect measure for comparing odds in arbitrage betting, which is discussed in our article arbitrage betting explained.

How to use Kelly Criterion for betting

Once you have decided what to bet on, the next step is to reasonably determine how much you should stake on the bet, a task for which bettors should be relying on a mathematical edge as opposed to their own impulses.

The Kelly Criterion is a popular staking method which suggests that your stake should be proportional to the perceived edge. Dominic Cortis explains how the Kelly Criterion works and can be applied to sports betting, as well as its advantages in ensuring that your betting funds are in the best position to grow exponentially.

Those interested in learning about other staking systems can check out our analysis of different staking methods.

How to calculate expected goals in soccer

Expected goals (or xG) has become a prominent stat used to inform soccer betting during the last few years and is no longer an untrusted metric confined to the analytics community. However, the fact that it is still not fully understood by all bettors is reflected by our article’s appearance in our most read list for the third year running.

Andrew Beasley offers a succinct yet comprehensive insight into what expected goals are, how they are calculated and most importantly, how they can be used to advise predictions for what might happen in a soccer match.

Andrew’s guide is a good starting point for anybody eager to utilise xG to refine their soccer betting, before moving on to analysing different expected goals models and the limitations of expected goals.

How to bet on tennis: A beginner's guide to tennis betting

Tennis is amongst the top five sports in betting volume at Pinnacle and presents an extensive variety of markets and tournaments for bettors to get involved with. As per any sport, you should understand the rules and available markets in tennis before betting on it.

We cover both of these topics plus the multitude of factors that can impact a player’s performance in a tennis match and therefore the outcome of it. It also identifies useful stats to consider to inform your tennis betting and the different competitions available to bet on.

If you’re looking to expand the repertoire of sports you bet on, we also have guides for betting on cricket, boxing, golf, basketball, the NFL and many more.

Poisson Distribution: Predict the score in soccer betting

Predicting the score of a soccer match is arguably one of the most difficult yet potentially lucrative components of soccer betting. Marrying Poisson Distribution with a team’s historical data can offer a simple yet reliable method of calculating how likely a team are to score a specified number of goals in a match and therefore what the score of the fixture in question might be.

Benjamin Cronin covers how this works, including how to calculate associated stats such as Attack Strength and Defence Strength, and how to utilise your findings to identify value in betting markets and odds.

Benjamin also looks at the limitations of this system and which markets it is best applied to. Those who enjoy exploring more niche soccer markets should also read our articles on corners betting in soccer and cards betting in local soccer derbies.

There’s still a big audience for complex subject matter

While the articles featured in this list may primarily appeal to beginner or intermediate bettors, some of our more complex guides have also received wide readership in 2019.

PlusEVAnalytics’ two-part article Toward a theory of everything proved very popular amongst Betting Resources readers this year, as did Joseph Buchdahl’s Pinnacle versus FiveThirtyEight: A comparison of predictive success and Using the closing line to test your skill in betting.