With 2020 being one of the strangest years we’ve ever seen, it has been a good time to reflect and learn about a number of different theories and strategies involved in betting. Throughout this year we have been posting articles that have provided insight into areas that interest bettors as well as educate people in some of the harder areas of the markets.
So to round off this unique year, it’s time to dive into Pinnacle’s 2020 archives and pull out the top 10 most popular articles.
Betting on winning streaks
There’s no doubt the best sports stars are defined by their continued success in their chosen field, often dominating and winning in specific environments. Roger Federer at Wimbledon, Jurgen Klopp at home and Floyd Mayweather in the ring. While for these athletes, we often assume the reason for such dominance is pure skill, but is that really the case?
Certainly when it comes to betting, we are more inclined to believe that consistent success must be heavily influenced by luck. In this article, we explore the role that luck plays in establishing winning streaks and why it is important for bettors to understand that there might be more to an impressive record than meets the eye.
It is easy to be drawn in by a long run of success and think it’s a sensible bet to follow the form, but it can also backfire quite easily. Read our article Betting on winning streaks and find out why it’s been so popular with readers this year!
The hot hand phenomenon
The term “hot hand” originates from basketball, where a player’s probability of hitting a free throw is believed to be higher after making the previous shot. In sports betting scenarios, the term is used to describe a bettor with a persistent winning record.
Bettors may want to think the hot hand phenomenon exists in betting and once you get on a roll, you’re more likely to keep winning. However, it’s not as simple as that and believing that to be the case could be a quick way to lose a lot of money.
Binary thinking and betting: What is a “good bet”?
The way bettors process information is important to their success. What is binary bias? What can YouTube and the Baltimore Ravens tell us about betting psychology? What is a good bet?
Bettors often think about sorting information into exclusive options for example is it a good bet or not. However more often than not there is a lot more factors that go into this process: form, home advantage etc, so similarly to how a computer processes information, it is needed to create a binary option, a selection of either a 1 or a 0 to equate for the multitude of outcomes that are possible.
The dangers of weighting probability from intuition
Do you know why betting on your favourite team is a bad idea? It’s for the same reason lotteries are so popular and people find judging the likelihood of rare events, like a hole-in-one, so difficult. It comes down to skewed perception resulting from what are known as the possibility and certainty effects.
For the most part, bettors struggle to evaluate a bet based on the Expected value (link) of the bet, but instead consider what they feel about the perspective returns based on an emotional reaction.
Winner takes all: The consequences of competition in betting
Everyone wants to be a winner, but the sports betting industry wouldn’t exist if that was possible. Bettors are competing against each other in a relative-skills competition in a winner takes all environment. What are the consequences of competition in betting?
To understand how to be a successful bettor, it’s first key to understand the fundamentals of how bookmakers can break down different types of bettors. It is also key to establish the difference in understanding who you are playing against, is it you versus the bookmaker or you versus other bettors.
Five key betting principles you need to remember
Sports betting is not as simple as following a set of guidelines or rules in order to guarantee success. What works for one person may not work for another. That said, there are some core principles that all bettors will benefit from following. Read on to find out the five key principles that all bettors should remember.
To understand what the foundations are to become a successful bettor, first you need to grasp the key end goals that lead to improvement and skill development.
Money Line betting explained: What is a Money Line bet?
When looking to learn about new style of betting, it’s good to understand the different methods and styles used to increase your chances with bookmakers. Money Line betting is the most common type of sports bet. The simple format ensures it’s a popular choice for beginner bettors. However, more advanced bettors will still turn to this market to find value.
Money Line betting is often seen in larger sports markets such as the NFL or the NBA due to the high scoring nature of these fixtures. There is a lot of theory that goes into how to develop your skillset within this area of betting.
Timing a bet: Attempting to create value
Sometimes it feels as if bookmakers have developed the timings of their odds to allow for lack of value. However it has been shown through the efficiency of betting markets, that there is always value to be found.
We uncover the best ways to take advantage of these timings and how you can secure the best possible value for your bets. It doesn’t have to be complicated to find value when betting, it’s simply about knowing how to time your bets to allow for maximum output.
What is Dutching? The “bet on everything else” strategy explained
Are you looking to increase your knowledge of different betting strategies? Well, Dutching is one of the less commonly known betting strategies out there. That is because it contradicts the usual approach of choosing which option offers the most value and instead, spreading your risk across several outcomes. What is Dutching and how does Dutching work?
The majority of Bets are usually created by a consumer placing a bet on their favourite team/person/competitor with the probability being either a win or lose, but there is a different perspective of how to spread your bets across multiple outcomes of an event that can drive efficiency within your bets, and create added value for you.
How does luck influence short term betting
Luck is one of the most commonly attributed measures of success within betting, but as a bettor do you understand how luck influences your short-term betting? Is a run of five winning bets skill or luck? The most assessable example of this is a coin toss, how many times out of 100 do you think you could predict the outcome – as with an implied probability of 0.5, is it luck that tips the balance one way over the other?
To achieve positive margins within betting it is key to understand how likely it will be to create a run of profitable bets and how to accomplish this. This article explains how assigning probabilities to your bets is a good habit to develop, as a run of winning bets isn't always a sign of good betting.