NCAA basketball offers a real opportunity for bettors to gain an edge over bookmakers. With March Madness under way, all eyes are on the teams who have qualified for "The Big Dance".
In NCAA basketball, it’s not uncommon for a total to move as much as 10 points, or for some handicaps to move five points. The early NCAA basketball sharps will bet heavily on these openers – which can be very profitable.
If an accurately priced whole-point handicap pushes about 4.5% of the time in NCAAB, betting into an early number which is off by five points will win more than 70% of the time. A total will land on a well-priced number almost 3% of the time in NCAA totals, making an opening total that is off, even easier for a player to beat.
Pinnacle opens lines early; for that reason we have to resort to educated guessing when we first put the lower limit handicaps live, giving bettors with good knowledge of a Conference a betting edge.
With over 300 Division I teams, oddsmakers simply don’t have the time to analyse each game and team in-depth. Most basketball fans have a favourite Conference, which gives them an advantage over a bookmaker. If you’re a specialist in one Conference and know the players, coaches, playing styles, injuries and suspensions for all the teams in that Conference, you have invaluable insight on match-ups that feature those teams that bookmakers, simply do not.
As Pinnacle open lines early, we often find that we have to resort to making an educated guess when we first put the lower limit handicaps live. This is where players who’ve done their homework on the Conferences have the advantage. We rely on these players to quickly sharpen the Pinnacle odds, at which point we are then able to raise the limits.
Occasionally, you’ll see a total that is extremely off – for example, it might open at 140 over 1.952 and then close at 1.588. When an opener is off by five or more points, we sometimes choose not to move the total and look to adjust the match odds instead. This is because it can be hard to assess how much a half-point is worth when your opener is that far from the real total.
Knowledge is key when finding an edge over the bookmaker, and NCAAB offers the perfect opportunity for educated bettors to take advantage ahead of March Madness.
Ready to jump into the betting action? Get unbeatable March Madness basketball odds only at Pinnacle.