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Poisson Distribution is a mathematical concept for translating mean averages into a probability for variable outcomes across a distribution. For example, if we know Manchester City average 1.7 goals per game, so by putting the Poisson Distribution formula tells us that this average equates to Manchester City&nbsp;scoring 0 goals 18.3% of the time, 1 goal 31% of the time, 2 goals 26.4% of the time and 3 goals 15% of the time.

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What is Expected Value?The amount a player can expect to win or lose if they were to place a bet on the same odds many times over, calculated through a simple equation multiplying your probability of winning with the amount you could win per bet, and subtracting the probability of losing multiplied by the amount lost per bet.A simple example of Expected Value (EV) put into practice -&nbsp;if you were

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<p>Matty studied journalism in Australia before taking the leap across the pond as an overseas professional cricketer in Cambridge and Birmingham, UK. With a sports betting and iGaming career that spans almost a decade, Matty is an infinite fountain of Casino gaming knowledge and sports expertise, whilst also being open to exploring any sport where he can try and find a profitable edge.</p>

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<h3>World Baseball Classic 2023: Italy vs. Japan predictions</h3>
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<p>Italy</p>
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<p>Japan</p>
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<p><span>TBC</span>%</p>
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<p><span>TBC</span>%</p>
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<p><strong>When:</strong> March 16, 2023</p>
<p><strong>Where:</strong> Tokyo, Japan</p>
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<li><a href="https://www.pinnacle.com/en/baseball/world-baseball-classic/matchups#period:0" target="_blank"><strong>Bet: Italy vs. Japan odds</strong></a></li>
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<h3>World Baseball Classic 2023: Italy vs. Japan</h3>
<p>Japan powered their way to the top of Pool B with convincing victories over China, South Korea, Czech Republic, and finally, Australia.</p>
<p>Dominant, or perhaps commanding would be the word to best describe Japan’s onslaught. Japan’s stacked team saw 38 runs scored for just a mere eight allowed.</p>
<p>Italy have not been so convincing. Their fate was decided by mathematics rather than sheer dominance.</p>
<p>Each team in Pool A finished with a 2-2 record forcing a tiebreaker decision. After some quick calculations, Cuba and Italy ended up with the two better quotients and a place in the quarter finals.</p>
<h3>Italy vs. Japan: Who will win?</h3>
<p><strong>Japan odds to win:</strong> TBC*</p>
<p><strong>Italy odds to win:</strong> TBC*</p>
<p>Japan are outright favourites in this match and rightfully so. Italy have been impressive, but not to the same extent as Japan.</p>
<blockquote>Japan have belted 18 more runs than Italy and allowed far fewer runs againt</blockquote>
<p>Consider the stats – Japan have belt 38 runs compared to Italy’s 20, and only allowed eight runs compared to Italy’s 17.</p>
<p>Japan’s team is packed full of stars who are capable of hitting big too – Italy have failed to send the ball over the fence even once while Japan have blasted four home runs.</p>
<p>Shohei Ohtani will be difficult to contain, and he’s helped Japan get off to a positive start in each game during Pool B. Ohtani has been at bat 12 times with five runs, six hits, and one monster home run.</p>
<p>Matt Harvey has been impressive for Italy, and allowed only one run on two hits across four innings in Italy’s triumph over the Netherlands.</p>
<p>The 33-year-old’s experience for the Mets will certainly help the Italians, but frankly, they need star power, not experience to beat this Japanese side.</p>
<p><strong>Ready to make your World Baseball Classic predictions? Keep checking in at Betting Resources for more match predictions for this exciting tournament.<a href="https://bit.ly/3sbs8Ec" target="_blank"> Sign up today</a> and get Pinnacle’s sensational <a href="https://www.pinnacle.com/en/baseball/world-baseball-classic/matchups#period:0" target="_blank">baseball odds</a>. </strong></p>

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World Baseball Classic 2023: Italy vs. Japan predictions

Will Italy be able to stop a dominant Japan? Inform your 2023 World Baseball Classic predictions with insights from Pinnacle.

Japan cruised to a 4-0 clean sweep of Pool B.
Italy managed to sneak through on quotient - can Italy upset the mighty Japan?
Inform your 2023 World Baseball Classic predictions with insights from Pinnacle.