Recent articles by Dominic Cortis
Bookmakers and professional bettors alike use prediction models in order to ensure profits in the betting markets. Whatever the model though, prediction is not a prophecy, as it can be influenced by error. How can bettors spot errors in prediction models and how can they exploit them? Read on to find out.
In a series of articles, we look back at the last season of different leagues using a metric called the Brier score to find out which teams providing the most surprising results. Here we look at the surprise factors in Bundesliga. Read on to find out why you should keep an eye on the lower ranking teams.
Both Juventus and Sassuolo performed well last season and managed to get a place in a European competition. While this was expected for the Old Lady, it was not for Sassuolo. Following a look back at last season’s Premier League and Bundesliga surprises, this article concludes the trilogy by looking at Serie A surprises through our Brier score glasses.
Over the past year we analysed which teams caused the most and least surprises during the 2015/16 season by measuring a metric called Brier score. By November, West Ham were the surprise package due to their amazing away wins and by the end of the season Leicester caused the biggest upset bookmakers have seen in the Premier League history. Who will be this year’s surprise in the EPL?
Do odds represent true probabilities of an event? A leisurely stroll in the library and the discovery of a highly cited academic book is what put Dominic Cortis on the quest to discover why odds deviate from actual results. Read on to find out what bettors can learn from behavioural economics.
At the end of 2014/15 season Leicester had a great run, so much so that they saved themselves from relegation having been in the last place for quite some time. This performance level continued in 2015/16 with the Foxes writing Premier League history, but can this be extended? Read on to find out what statistics has to say about it.
Following the Copa America this year, Dominic Cortis became the witness to two stunning statistical events. During this tournament, Mexico broke two records. Read on to find out how these records were conflicting in nature and what that means for using statistics in betting.
Bettors should always look for a mathematical edge rather than rely on their impulses. Learning how to use the Kelly Criterion, for example, is a great way for bettors to determine how much they should stake. Read on to find out.
The Poisson distribution is typically used as a starting point to derive initial odds. But in short tournaments, like the Euro, where such parameters are hard to obtain, the limitations of otherwise reliable statistical tools become more apparent. Read on to find out how to protect your money from statistical limitations.
Draws in soccer are more common compared to other sports, but still hard to predict. Dominic Cortis looks at past data to determine the frequency of draws in Euro Championship competitions. Read on to find out at which stage it is best to bet on draws in Euro 2016. A must read for all soccer bettors.